Day 1 and 2 are nearly in the books, and we’re here with our fantasy football outlook for the top rookies of the 2022 NFL Draft. Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson share their first takes on all of 2022’s top rookies.
Round 1
Drake London to the Falcons at No. 8
Drake London landing in Atlanta has been my hope all along. London will compete with Kyle Pitts for the team lead in targets immediately. London is a force to be reckoned with after ranking fifth in yards per route run and sixth in missed tackles last year (per PFF). He’s a WR3 with upside for this season.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for London
Garrett Wilson to the Jets at No. 10
Garrett Wilson’s yards after the catch ability will be a godsend for Zach Wilson. His production profile against top competition at Ohio State is impeccable. He’s been top 30 in yards per route run in each of the last two seasons (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). This team needed to add talent around their young franchise quarterback, and this accomplishes that goal. Elijah Moore and Wilson give Zach Wilson a versatile pairing to pepper with targets.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for Wilson
Chris Olave to the Saints at No. 11
The Saints made an aggressive move to climb up the board to curiously select Chris Olave with a talent like Jameson Williams still on the board. It’s a head-scratcher, to say the least. Olave is a talented player in his own rite, though. He flashed game-changing speed at the combine with this prowess as a route technician. Olave is a good stylistic fit with Michael Thomas in the Big Easy.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for Olave
Jameson Williams to the Lions at No. 12
Jameson Williams continues the Detroit Lions’ obsession with speed from their receiving depth chart. Kalif Raymond, D.J. Chark, and Williams give the Lions a few players that can burn up the turf. Williams’ injury could lead to a slow start, but his lid lifting ability will be evident as soon as he’s ready to roll. This season, the Lions could see an uptick in their neutral passing rate with Williams, Chark, T.J. Hockenson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown filling out the target tree. Williams will need that to be anything more than a WR4 this season.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for Williams
Jahan Dotson to the Commanders at No. 16
Jahan Dotson landing in Washington is a better NFL move than it is for our purposes in fantasy football. Carson Wentz is a barbed wire turnover-prone mess with questionable ability at this stage of his career of supporting multiple receiving options in fantasy. Dotson will compete with Logan Thomas and J.D. McKissic for targets behind Terry McLaurin. Unless the Commanders increase their 18th ranked neutral passing rate last season, Dotson will be a volatile weekly option with a low target floor.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for Dotson
Treylon Burks to the Titans at No. 18
The Titans traded disgruntled wide receiver A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles for picks 18 and 101. With the 18th pick, the Tennessee Titans replaced Brown with a similar-type player in Treylon Burks.
And it’s an ideal redraft spot for the rookie. There’s no competition for targets outside Robert Woods coming off a torn ACL. And with a similar YAC-ability like Brown, Burks should be able to step on the field on day one and offer immediate fantasy football appeal as a top-30 fantasy option. The Razorbacks’ 8.5 yards after the catch rank 14th among 169 qualifying wide receivers (92nd percentile) over the past two seasons. The run-heavy nature of the offense and limitations of Ryan Tannehill at quarterback will likely hinder Burks’ fantasy ceiling but he’s got a path to opportunities that not many other rookie WRs will see from the get-go as a favorite to be the team’s WR1.
– Andrew Erickson
Full fantasy football outlook for Burks
Kenny Pickett to the Steelers at No. 20
Kenny Pickett isn’t leaving Pittsburgh anytime soon. The prolific college passer was selected by the Steelers 20th overall as the first quarterback drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft.
As the most pro-ready quarterback in the class, Pickett has the chance to earn the Day 1 starting job against veteran quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky offers more standalone value as a fantasy asset due to his rushing ability, but Pickett under center might be a slight upgrade from what Trubisky was slated to offer for the Steelers main skill players.
Pickett finished third in PFF passing grade from a clean pocket (94.3) and first in his class in adjusted completion percentage (79%) in 2021. His accuracy and deep ball bodes well for the likes of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool.
He does tend to go slowly through progressions and hold the ball too long, as evidenced by a 3.19-second average time to throw – the second-slowest in the draft class (Malik Willis, 3.33).
But it does mean that he is willing to hold onto the ball to let his receivers get downfield for more big plays.
– Andrew Erickson
Full fantasy football outlook for Pickett
Round 2
Christian Watson to the Packers at No. 34
The Green Bay Packers traded up to the top of the second round with the Minnesota Vikings to select Christian Watson with the 34th overall selection.
The North Dakota State product joins a lackluster Packers receiving corps of Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers, so there’s an opportunity for Watson to earn an immediate role from the get-go.
Watson’s rise to the second-round starter at the 2022 Senior Bowl. The North Dakota State prospect showed that his 35% dominator rating and No. 1-ranked 4.33 yards per route run were no fluke, even if they came against an easy schedule of opponents.
And his draft stock continued to ascend with a blazing 4.36 40-yard dash (92nd percentile) during Combine testing. That speed at Watson’s size.
Combine that with his 38.5-inch vertical (84th percentile) and 136-inch broad jump (98th percentile), and all that’s left is calling the dude a certified stud that will benefit greatly from having Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback.
But be prepared for some growing pains as Watson makes the leap to stiffer competition at the next level. He’s not a fully refined product that has had issues with focus drops — 11 over the last two seasons. Best not to get in Rodgers’ doghouse.
– Andrew Erickson
Full fantasy football outlook for Watson
Breece Hall to the Jets at No. 36
Breece Hall lands with the New York Jets and should get all the volume he can handle. Michael Carter was immensely productive when healthy and given the opportunity last year, but this type of draft capital speaks volumes. New York deployed inside and outside zone runs on 60% of their rushing snaps last year (per PFF). These run designs are Hall’s bread and butter, as he registered a 36% missed tackles forced rate on outside zone runs in 2021 (per PFF). The Jets should have no issues springing him into space with an offensive line that was 11th in open field yards last season (per Football Outsiders). Hall is a locked-in top 20 running back for redraft.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for Hall
Kenneth Walker III to the Seahawks at No. 41
Pete Carroll sidesteps the quarterback position for his establish the run fetish and selects the best pure runner in this draft class. For 2022 this is a nightmare scenario for Kenneth Walker to get the full workload with last season’s stretch run darling and efficiency king Rashaad Penny still in town. This move does show Seattle’s hand that Chris Carson is likely not healthy, so he’s not factoring into how I’m evaluating this backfield. Walker will have to deal with the headache of Penny this year, but it could be wheels up in 2023. Walker is nothing more than an RB3/4 this season unless there’s an injury to Penny.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for Walker
Wan’Dale Robinson to the Giants at No. 43
Wan’Dale Robinson checks a few different analytical boxes, but this pick by the Giants is a head-scratcher unless it’s a precursor to a Kadarius Toney trade. Robinson is an undersized sub-athlete. Standing at 5’8″, 178 lbs, he only registered a 25th percentile speed score, a 36th percentile burst score, and a 64th percentile agility score (per Playerprofiler.com). He did, however, roll up a 37.3% college dominator (75th percentile) and 39.3% target share (99th percentile). Robinson is a WR5 unless Toney is moved.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for Robinson
John Metchie III to the Texans at No. 44
The Texans look to further build around quarterback Davis Mills to see if he can be the long-term answer at the position by adding Alabama wide receiver John Metchie in Round 2. Houston traded multiple picks to move up for the Crimson Tide receiver in a similar fashion to how they acquired Nico Collins a season ago.
Metchie III caught 96 balls for over 1,100 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his final junior season.
It was a long-time coming for Metchie because playing alongside future first-round picks Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Henry Ruggs made it nearly impossible for him to get playing time.
He got his first crack at legitimate playing time in 2020 after Waddle went down with an injury. However, he was lackluster at best, taking a massive backseat to DeVonta Smith.
All eyes were on Metchie when Smith and Waddle would move on – and for the most part, he delivered. Metchie led Bama with a 20% target share in 13 games before his injury. He just happened to be overshadowed by Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams.
Still, Metchie has a nice skill set that will translate well with the Texans. He’s a savvy route runner that understands how to get leverage and create separation from defenders. His game reminds me of Eddie Royal.
He probably won’t ever be a true No. 1, but that doesn’t preclude him from carving out a niche role starting from the slot. After Brandin Cooks, there’s nobody on offense that has any established pedigree. To be honest, Metchie played with tougher competition at Alabama. Keep tabs on Metchie in your full-PPR formats.
– Andrew Erickson
Full fantasy football outlook for Metchie
Tyquan Thornton to the Patriots at No. 50
The Patriots pull off another double-take-worthy pick by selecting Tyquan Thortnon in the second round of the NFL Draft. Thortnon tested out as an elite-level athlete at the combine with a blazing 4.28 40-yard dash time and above 90th percentile speed and burst scores, but this pick was a massive reach. With an expected draft position of 123 per Grindingthemocks.com, the Patriots were seduced by the speed juice to take him this early. While New England could ultimately be proven right if Thortnon hits, for this season, he will be competing for targets with DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and their slew of tight ends and running backs on a run-first team. Thortnon will be outside my top 70 redraft wide receivers unless the pass-catching options are pared down before Week 1.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for Thornton
George Pickens to the Steelers at No. 52
The Pittsburgh Steelers selected George Pickens at pick No. 52, with WR3 an area of need and Diontae Johnson slated for free agency in 2023. I absolutely love the fit for Pickens here with the Steelers, who seem to never miss selecting wideouts on Day 2.
It remains to be seen how much Pickens will do as a rookie competing for targets alongside Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freirermuth, but his long-term outlook with future franchise quarterback Kenny Pickett looks bright.
The Georgia Bulldog WR broke out as a true 18-year-old freshman, finishing 2019 as PFF’s the 17th-highest-graded receiver in the nation (88.0) – ahead of future NFL wideouts like Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle.
His 2.64 yards per route run were identical to Jefferson’s. George Pickens’ unbelievable first year generated a 27% dominator rating – the No. 1 age-adjusted mark among the WRs in this draft class.
And it’s so clear that Pickens plays with a dog mentality. Part of his highlight tape is him putting opposing cornerbacks on the ground in the run game. Mike Tomlin is going to love that.
Injuries and off-field issues plagued Pickens’ draft stock, but he looks fully healthy based on his testing at the NFL Combine. And Pittsburgh seems like the right spot for him to get his head on straight.
I will be drafting a lot of Pickens in my dynasty rookie drafts with his future looking bright. Redraft will be tougher sell based on target competition and question marks at quarterback. Likely will need an injury ahead of him.
– Andrew Erickson
Full fantasy football outlook for Pickens
Alec Pierce to the Colts at No. 53
The Colts are gearing up to throw the ball more with their quarterback upgrade in Matt Ryan. Alec Pierce fills a huge need for this franchise. Parris Campbell hasn’t been able to stay on the field despite his raw talent, and the franchise lost Zach Pascal in the offseason. Pierce is an athletic freak who will help stretch the field from Day 1. While his route tree was limited at Cincinnati, he has the raw talent to develop into a player that can contend with Michael Pittman for the team lead in targets yearly if he hits the upper range of his outcomes. He’s currently a WR5 in my redraft rankings, but he could develop into a WR4 with spike week potential if the Colts gravitate back to their early season pass-happy ways of 2021.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for Pierce
Skyy Moore to the Chiefs at No. 54
Pop the champagne and break out the party hats. Skyy Moore landing in Kansas City is a near-perfect outcome. Moore lands on a talented offense with an elite quarterback and an offensive genius. Yes, Juju Smith-Schuster’s presence will hurt his projected target upside, but Moore has the talent to emerge as the number two option in this passing offense behind only Travis Kelce. I know I sound ridiculously bullish on Moore, but for a player that converted to wide receiver when he arrived at Western Michigan and then proceeded to post a 91st college dominator rating and soak up a 99th percentile target share, the ceiling is enormous. Moore is a tackle-breaking machine and will be a YAC maven.
– Derek Brown
Full fantasy football outlook for Moore
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