It’s never too early to mock draft. A lot has happened over the off-season and ADP is starting to take shape. Below is a mock draft recently completed using the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator for a Superflex, PPR-scoring league.

• Round 1 – Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
• Round 2 – Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)

Yeah, I went there. Securing the most important position in a Superflex format with my first two picks was a goal but I couldn’t have imagined both Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow would be available when I picked.

For Mahomes, a case could be made that he should be taken after Josh Allen (QB – BUF) since Allen has been fantasy’s top quarterback for two years running. But falling to seventh in a Superflex draft and behind Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)? No thanks. I trust Mahomes and Andy Reid to find a suitable replacement for Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) before the season and produce the same fireworks as before.

Burrow could be considered a reach considering just three receivers had been taken before him and no other quarterback was taken after him for nine picks but – as mentioned above – I’d rather lock down the position and then spend the rest of the draft filling up on running backs and receivers rather than hoping a late-round quarterback works out.

• Round 3 – Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
• Round 4 – Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
• Round 5 – DJ Moore (WR – CAR)

Now that the quarterback position is locked down, I can draft nothing but running backs and receivers from here on out. Diggs falling to the mid-third round was lucky. He’s been a top-10 fantasy receiver in both seasons as a Bill but was just the seventh receiver taken. Give me Diggs over A.J. Brown (WR – TEN), who went six picks earlier, any day.

Waiting for four rounds to take a running back isn’t exactly going ‘Zero-RB,’ but it’s close. There just isn’t a guarantee at the position like there used to be, as running backs are now as interchangeable as any other position in the sport. Gibson is a fine option this late after finishing fourth in the NFL in carries last year. He definitely won’t see targets that other running backs would, but the 52 he did see last year is nothing to sneeze at.

Taking DJ Moore in the fifth feels right. Until he gets an upgrade at the quarterback position, it’s hard to see him produce WR1 fantasy numbers. He’s a steady WR2.

• Round 6 – Darren Waller (TE – LV)
• Round 7 – JK Dobbins (RB – BAL)
• Round 8 – Marquise Brown (WR – BAL)

In hindsight, I feel lucky to have snagged Waller when I did. Not only is he a top-five fantasy tight end, but the drop-off after him is massive. No tight end was taken for THREE ROUNDS after I selected Waller. Plus, the running backs and receivers all just sort of blur together now that we’re in the middle rounds.

Speaking of, I’m looking forward to seeing JK Dobbins after his torn ACL recovery. 2020 was supposed to be a breakout but the injury forced a delay. The runway is clear for Dobbins in 2022, where he’ll pair with Gus Edwards (RB – BAL) to form a potent duo.

Down the hall in the Ravens team facility is my third receiver. Marquise Brown has gotten better every year in the league including last year when he topped 1,000 receiving yards for the first time. He managed that after finishing 10th in the league last year in targets, a feat that probably won’t happen again with the emergence of 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL). Nonetheless, slotting Brown as a flex option, instead of my top two receiver slots, is a great value.

• Round 9 – Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG)
• Round 10 – J.D. McKissic (RB – WAS)
• Round 11 – DeVante Parker (WR – NE)

It’s all about filling out the bench at this point. In both Kadarius Toney and DeVante Parker, I have two receivers that have decent capital invested in them by their respective teams. For Toney, he’s one year removed from being a first-round pick by the New York Giants and showed flashes of why such as his 10 reception, 189-yard performance in Week 5 against the Cowboys. For Parker, he was recently traded (along with a fifth-round pick) for a third-round pick to the Patriots, where he’ll step in as Mac Jones’ (QB – NE) top receiver (for now).

In J.D. McKissic, he would have been a target even if I hadn’t drafted Antonio Gibson. McKissic, as Washington’s passing-down specialist, is two years removed from seeing 110 targets and still saw 53 last year despite playing in just 10 games. Washington brought him back this year where he should do more of the same. Having Gibson ahead of him on my depth chart is a bonus and is convenient.

• Round 12 – Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
• Round 13 – Nyheim Hines (RB – IND)
• Round 14 – Jamaal Williams (RB – DET)

I like to balance out my roster. I’ve taken five receivers up to this point and only three running backs, so I went looking for the best options available. In Nyheim Hines, here’s to hoping we get the 2020 version when he saw the third-most targets for a running back. In Jamaal Williams, despite being seen as a backup to D’Andre Swift (RB – DET), Williams filled in just fine, seeing a career-high 153 carries for a career-high 601 rushing yards.

It’s not necessary to take a backup tight end, but Goedert is a legitimate TE1 in fantasy scoring. He’s also a capable backup for my team should Darren Waller miss significant time like he did last year.

• Round 15 – Saints (DEF – NO)
• Round 16 – Matt Gay (K – LAR)

First off, do NOT draft either a defense or kicker until the end (if your league requires it). There is too much randomness from season to season to accurately predict either one and how they will perform in a given year. Take it one year at a time.

Having said that, there was some method to this madness. For example, the Saints play in the NFC South along with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers which should have a decent if not good offense again. But they also play with the Panthers and Falcons, neither of which necessarily even know who their quarterback will be when the 2022 season opens. Couple that with the Saints, who were top-three in defensive DVOA last year, and the odds are good New Orleans gets you some points.

As for kickers, just find one on a good offense. The Rams were a top-10 offense in DVOA, added Allen Robinson (WR – LAR), and still have Matt Stafford (QB – LAR) at quarterback. Matt Gay will be just fine.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Michael Moore is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @DLF_Moore.