We have made it a little over a week into the MLB season, and the overreactions are full force. There have been some elite performances and some very rough starts to the fantasy season. Overreacting is bad this early season, but we can still point out some players on the rise and some falling a bit behind. You do not need to add or drop these players. You can, but at worst, put them on your watch list to potentially make a transaction for in the coming weeks. We will do our best to justify our case with the small sample of stats, but we know a lot can change game to game this early in the season.
Risers
Miller has had quite the week for the Guardians. He had hit safely in all five games, with multiple hits in four games. Miller had a .632 ISO and 1.801 OPS, which is not sustainable but still a great sign of Miller’s upside. Miller was a monster offensively with two home runs and six doubles this past week. Miller’s contact quality backs up the production with an 11.1% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate. Miller has been playing primarily first base with one game at second base, showing playing time may be in his favor. Initially, it appeared Miler would share playing time with Bobby Bradley (1B – CLE), but Bradley’s poor production and Miller’s raking have changed all of that. For now, Miller is a near must add in 15-team leagues and a borderline add in 12-team leagues.
Sanchez is off to a scorching hot start to the season and, after a 3-6 game on Sunday, hit safely in four of five games with multiple hits in each game. Sanchez has been hitting near the top of the order, and that has also been tremendous for his run production as he scored six runs this past week and drove in seven. In addition, Sanchez has been more aggressive in the zone to start the season, showing his improved strikeout rate. This past week he is striking out around 5% and less than 17% on the season, which is a marked improvement from his 31% strikeout rate last season. Sanchez is a fantasy beast, and this hot start appears to be for real.
Raise your hand if you knew Franco was playing every day for the Nationals. With the early injury to Carter Kieboom (3B – WAS), Franco has slotted in as the starting third baseman and has flourished. Franco has hit safely in five out of seven games this past week with three doubles and a home run. Franco is hitting for average and some power and driving in eight runs this past week. On the season, Franco is striking out over 23% of the time, which is high for Franco’s standards, but his contact quality has majorly improved with a 10.3% barrel rate and 58.6% hard-hit rate. We know how streaky Franco can be, but with the everyday playing time, he can hit 20+ home runs and be productive in a few other ROTO categories with the regular playing time.
Lux has found his groove recently with regular playing time with the Dodgers. He played six games this past week, starting five games, and was quite productive. This past week, Lux had three extra-base hits and threw a steal. He is barreling the ball 30% of the time with a 90% hard-hit rate. It has been outstanding when he makes contact, but we need to stay hesitant with a 32% strikeout rate this past week. Nevertheless, Lux may be breaking out and showcasing the prospect pedigree many have been waiting for, so now may be the time to buy into Lux as his fantasy value is rising.
Blackburn has had trouble getting his footing in the bigs over the past seasons, but so far in 2022, Blackburn looks excellent. He has made two starts, throwing five innings in each start and allowing two runs. Blackburn has ten strikeouts over the two starts and only one walk. In addition, he is doing a great job of limiting overall contact to only 66% while racking up a 13.9% SwStr and 36.1% CSW. Blackburn has been outstanding, and positive signs indicate a strong 2022 season.
Fallers
Josh Harrison (2B, SS, 3B, OF – CWS)
Harrison has been battling an injury to start the season and only played four games this past week. He was horrible, going 0-13 with two strikeouts. Harrison is only hitting .120 to start the season with two extra-base hits and three runs scored with the rough past week. However, he is staying disciplined by limiting his chase rate and has only struck out three times this season. Harrison should continue to get regular playing time in a loaded White Sox lineup, but there has to be some serious concern about Harrison struggling as he plays through an injury.
Winker went 0-4 on Sunday, which capped off a week where he only had three hits and hit below .150. Winker struck out nearly 20% of the time with a 7.1% barrel rate and 21.4% hard-hit rate. In addition, Winker had a horrible O-contact rate below 37%, which will not cut it in the future. We all know how good Winker can be versus RHP, but things are not looking good for Winker this season. He will face four RHP in six games next week, and if Winker cannot get it going this week, then some serious concern should set in for fantasy owners.
Baddoo is off to a horrible start to the season, and this past week he only hit safely in two of six games with a .125 average. His two hits were a double and a home run, but that is still not going to cut it. He is striking out nearly 30% of the time this past week with an O-swing close to 30%. Baddoo is chasing a ton, and the results are showing. He is hitting at the bottom of the Tigers’ batting order most days, and if he continues to struggle, he could see a loss in playing time to the likes of Victor Reyes (OF – DET).
Torres went 0-4 on Sunday with a strikeout, and that ends his week with only four hits and a near 30% strikeout rate. He had one home run this past week, but it was a short porch gift at Yankee Stadium. Torres’s plate discipline has been insufficient to start the season, and this past week he has an O-swing over 40% to go with a near 16% SwStr which will only lead to more problems. If struggles continue, Torres could lose some playing time to DJ LeMahieu (1B, 2B, 3B – NYY), which would be tragic to his fantasy value.
This one pains me greatly, but Rodriguez is struggling tremendously to start the season. He has made two starts and only thrown a total of 7.2 innings. He has allowed ten runs (five earned) on nine hits and five walks. The walks have been a massive problem, and a week, 8.4% SwStr and 20.6% CSW. Rodriguez looked to have a big 2022 with his new team, but it has been nothing but trouble. He was once a must-start, but he may be more of a streamer until he rights his wrongs.
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Brian Entrekin is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter at @bdentrek
