A Look Back at Last Week
Last week’s FAAB report was highlighted by two rookies who could make a real impact this year. Both Jeremy Pena (SS – HOU) and Hunter Greene (SP – CIN) have impressed early on and have garnered the attention of those in the high-stakes NFBC (where the budget is $1000).
Pena went for an average bid of $133 and jumped from 13% to 41% owned this past week (Yahoo! leagues). Greene, who came in with far more hype, went for an average bid of $135 and rose from 44% to 63% rostered.
Among other risers from last week’s report was Alex Cobb (SP – SF), going up from 45% to 64% owned with stuff that looks legit after striking out ten in just five innings of work. Elias Diaz (C – COL) has also looked good at the plate and jumped 7% since last week’s report. I whiffed on Robert Suarez (RP – SD), but who could have seen that first performance coming AND that the Padres would trade for Taylor Rogers (RP – SD)? Keep in mind that I will attempt to suggest less than 60% rostered players.
Note: FAAB is based on a $100 budget, roster percentage is from Yahoo!
Hitters
- 47% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 5-6%
Continuing with our theme of hitters who hit at Coors Field for half of the season, Connor Joe is worth some of your cold, hard FAAB. The 29-year-old 1B/LF has been around for quite a bit. Drafted in 2014, Joe paid his dues in the minors and destroyed MiLB pitchers from 2018 to 2021 before finally getting a real opportunity last year. Now, he is the likely leadoff man for the Rockies ahead of Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL), Kris Bryant (1B, 3B, OF – COL), and C.J. Cron (1B – COL). Joe hasn’t hit the ball all that hard this year but possesses a great eye and gets his bat on the ball with an all-fields approach. So far, Joe has two home runs and even stole a base. Though this current production isn’t likely to keep up at this rate, the USD alum did sport a healthy .848 OPS last season while absolutely raking at home. Since this is a Coors Field addition, I’d advise you to bid on him while you can. Also, while it is just 11 at-bats on the road so far, Joe has looked quite good outside of Coors, already going yard outside of his home stadium.
- 58% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 4-5%
A preseason sleeper for me, Vaughn has started to begin the process of tapping into his potential early on this season. The fast-moving 2019 first-rounder was ready for minor league pitching in his last year at Cal and now has found his way as the everyday right fielder for the exciting young White Sox. Unlike Joe, Vaughn has hit the ball incredibly hard this year (like he did last year), throughout college, and in his brief stint in the minors. In just 14 at-bats, Vaughn has two home runs and six RBI.
Vaughn struggled in 2021, OPSing just .705, and struck out more than expected. However, he did show a lot of what makes him so exciting: his ability to hit the ball quite hard and to every part of the park. Keep in mind that Vaughn skipped Double and Triple-A and went straight to the big leagues from High-A.
Go out and get this young slugger before he inches closer to his full potential.
- 20% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 2-3%
Nimmo is a far better real-life player than a fantasy player (assuming you are in an average league). However, this year’s early results and the potential potency of the Mets’ offense make him an intriguing add. With a career .393 OBP, Nimmo has elite discipline and would likely be considered more of a fantasy option if injuries didn’t hamper him so far in his young career. Given that Nimmo has pop and is a threat to hit 15-20 home runs throughout an entire season, there is absolutely no reason not to sprinkle a couple of bucks on the hot-out-the-gate leadoff hitter in New York. Through the first few games, Nimmo is OPSing 1.137 with two home runs. While he will slow down a tick, the outfielder’s pitch recognition and surprising power make him an exciting play.
- 28% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 2-3%
Full disclosure, I am not as high as the rest of the world on Miller, but I think he is worthy of your consideration, given his scorching start. The 1B, 2B-eligible Guardian is hitting .524, good for third in MLB. He’s also doubled five times and has three hits in three of his last four games. Oh, and he hit two home runs his last time out. It is undoubtedly safe to say that he is the starting first baseman ahead of Bobby Bradley. The biggest negative is that Miller really, really struggled last year in 191 at-bats, putting up a brutal .551 OPS with almost no redeeming value. Perhaps his line drive approach that led to a .304 career minor league average can keep him hot. He will likely bat closer to Steven Kwan (OF – CLE) and Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE), which bodes well moving forward… but temper your expectations slightly.
Starting Pitchers
- 52% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 8-10%
There is no debate here. Luzardo has some of the most electrifying stuff of any young pitcher in baseball. With a plus-plus fastball that averaged 97.6 MPH in his first start, plus a changeup and two above-average breaking pitches, the fireballing left-hander could be an X-factor on many fantasy teams. Of course, Luzardo struggled mightily with his control the last few years, but early reports and his five-inning, 12-strikeout, one-walk performance indicate that he might have turned the corner on throwing strikes. The upside here is simply too high not to place a bid – and with Jacob Stallings (C – MIA) calling the games, you might have to indulge a bit to nab Luzardo.
- 30% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 3-4%
Perhaps most exciting about Cortes was that his average velocity sat at a career-high 91.2 MPH in his first start. The funky lefty allowed no runs, no walks, and struck out five. There is no question that Cortes was fantastic last year, but he was used in a hybrid role and focused more on command and control rather than stuff (even though his stuff is pretty good). While he may succeed – playing in a tough division at Yankee Stadium presents some real challenges. However, he faces the Orioles and Guardians next and could get out to a scorching start.
- 43% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 2-3%
Brash is a swing-and-miss king, plain and simple. The rookie starter elicited 11 whiffs on his curveball, which is the most by a rookie since 2009. The stuff is there, but the command and control have been an issue. If his first start is any indication, this is a work in progress – but one that many fantasy owners should be willing to investigate. The 2019 fourth-round draft pick dominated the minors to the tune of a 2.28 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts over 102.2 innings. Brash’s stuff is so developed that he skipped Triple-A and already looks ready for MLB hitting. Of course, though, he is still incredibly raw – but given his nasty fastball, slider, and clearly-useful curveball – this could be a really impactful waiver addition.
- 33% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 2-3%
In my best Bruce Buffer voice: Iiiiiitttttttt’s Tiiiiimmmmeeeee! The variance on Gore is – well – extreme. He projects to be an above-average pitcher but could fall anywhere between a multi-year All-Star or back-end rotation piece. The stuff is there, and he is as athletic as any pitcher in baseball. Thanks to a great spring and the adjustment of his mechanics, there are reports that he has fixed his command issues. The hype isn’t what it once was, but it certainly is something. A below-average or even okay start could land Gore right back in Triple-A as was planned, but if he is lights out, which he absolutely could be, who knows how long the Padres keep him around?
Closers
- 47% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 5-6%
Alex Colome’s (RP – COL) first appearance of the season came in the 8th inning, in which he promptly blew the Rockies’ lead. Bard proceeded to strike out the side in the first save opportunity and has held that role since. An incredible comeback story, Bard was the full-time closer in Colorado last season and seems like the man for the job yet again. He currently has two saves and even got a win after he blew a one-run lead. Bud Black went right back to Bard despite the blown save, giving me the confidence that this is no longer a competition. Yes, Bard did have a 5.21 ERA last season, but he is an average reliever, and saves are saves no matter how difficult they come.
- 19% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 3-4%
Rainey has clearly seized the closer role in Washington, an early target in the Holds League Primer that came out a couple of weeks ago. While there was some concern that Kyle Finnegan (RP – WAS) might still have the job, a horrid finish to 2021 and a cold start to 2022 pushed Dave Martinez to go in the direction of Rainey. So far, Rainey has yet to allow a run and looks to be in his 2020 form, where he sported a 2.66 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in 20.1 innings. Last year, Rainey was barely usable as he walked 21 batters in 31.2 innings – but the mechanics seem tighter, and the control is obviously better. Like Bard, this is probably the lowest tier closer you will find, but very few 9th inning options – except for Jorge Lopez (RP – BAL) – should be left on the wire.
- 14% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 1-2%
This is more of a speculative add. Warren has the best stuff in the Reds’ bullpen, and there is no saying who will close out games with Lucas Sims (RP – CIN) sidelined. In fact, who knows if Sims would have even closed games if he was healthy? Warren dominated in 2021 with a 1.29 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 14.57 K/9. Sure, Tony Santillan (RP – CIN) got the first chance – but he can not be trusted and should be viewed as the second option to Warren as we advance.
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Tyler Oringer is a featured writer at FantasyPros.