I hope everyone read last week’s column because just about everyone from the report made it on to the NFBC’s top-25 highest-bidded players (with first report nominees Hunter Greene and Jeremy Pena still available somehow). Jesus Luzardo, Connor Joe, Daniel Bard, Nestor Cortes, MacKenzie Gore, and Tanner Rainey cracked the list with the highest bid going $413 ($1,000 budget) for Luzardo (granted, it was in only one league, but you see the excitement there.) Additionally, Rainey went for $255 in one league, Bard an average bid of $238 in six leagues, Cortes an average bid of $194 in three leagues, and Joe an average bid of $153 in 11 leagues. These players rose significantly in their percent owned, and fantasy managers should roster all in all mixed leagues. While Luzardo struggled in his previous start, the talent is all there. And while Cortes looks like the best pitcher on the Yankees (not actually, I’m obviously joking – I think?), he won’t be going five innings with 12 strikeouts every start like he did last time out.
Now, moving forward with this week’s report. Keep in mind that I will attempt to suggest less than 60% rostered players.
Note: FAAB is based on a $100 budget, roster percentage is from Yahoo!
Hitters
- 28% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 4-5%
I’ve always been a believer in Alec Bohm’s bat – and thankfully, we do not have to worry about defense for fantasy. Bohm is an all-fields hitter and has an incredibly sweet swing – so sweet that he is in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity and 100th in xWOBA and xBA. Yeah, it’s just 21 at-bats, but this is an excellent offensive profile. Last season, Bohm was in the 89th percentile for average exit velocity yet finished with an underwhelming triple slash and just six home runs. Now, B0hm has clearly altered his approach and is making tons of contact – only striking out one measly time in 29 plate appearances. Sure – like the rest of the guys on this list – this will not keep up, but the prospect pedigree and surrounding lineup are there for consideration in most mixed leagues.
Jurickson Profar (1B,2B, OF- SD)
- 52% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 3-4%
If you know me, you know I love utility players. For some reason, Profar has always been a favorite of mine – a top prospect who became a utility guy just checks so many boxes for me. Anyways, Profar isn’t the best hitter on the planet but could easily wind up a full-time starter with a 15-20 home run and 10-15 stolen base season if he got 500 at-bats. The bat has been hot, hot, hot as the switch hitter already has two home runs from both sides of the plate in 2022. Lucky for those who roster the former top prospect – or will in the future – the Padres appear to view Profar as their everyday left fielder. So, while it’s not a high average, high RBI, or even high runs profile – the switch-hitting everywhere man should cover you in perhaps the two most hard-to-get categories throughout an entire season.
- 12% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 2-3%
Like you, I also think the Blue Jays have the best lineup in baseball. However, I didn’t know that Zack Collins would be batting clean up on April 21st. While it may seem crazy – like Tony La Russa batting Leury Garcia third – it actually isn’t that bad. Collins has been smacking the ball around – and while he isn’t hitting the ball insanely hard, he’s still averaging a 91.9 exit velocity (the highest of his career). Over the last seven days, Collins is 7-for-15 with two home runs. Sure, he will regress – there is no question about that – but with Danny Jansen on the shelf and Collins expected to see a bulk of the playing time at catcher, this is a must-own for the time being. It goes without saying, but the value at catcher here – in such a thin position – is why you should look into Collins.
- 16% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 1-2%
The Opening Day hero is a dart throw here. The D’Backs are bad, but Beer seems to be an above-average hitter. With a career .901 minors OPS and some natural power, it’s probably worth sprinkling one or two bucks on a guy hitting .400 to start the season.
Starting Pitchers
- 39% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 7-8%
I was trying not to repeat anyone I have used, but Gonsolin has not changed ownership since I had him on the first report. I am almost positive that will change after last night’s outing. I will say exactly what I said in Week 1… if he finds his command – the secondaries are good enough to get anyone out. Funny enough, he has found his command, and he’s getting everyone out. Dave Roberts let Gonsolin pitch into the sixth inning Wednesday night, and boy was it something. Gonsolin allowed no runs and just four baserunners. It is pretty clear that he is a pitcher to own in all mixed leagues – and I’m sure his percent owned will jump this time.
- 24% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 2-3%
Listen, I don’t know if this will work, but you have to love that there are now two pitchers (see Hunter Greene) who will consistently fire 100 mph on the mound. Hicks has long had an issue with command and control, but the Cardinals must feel he might be able to limit walks as a starter better? I don’t know, but I do know his stuff is elite, and he has had success despite the issues. After Tommy John surgery in 2019 and opting out of the 2020 season, Hicks struggled in 10 innings of work in 2021 before dealing with arm soreness. But now, it is time to see what he can do as a starter – and after three innings in his first career start and hitting 100 mph or over 14 times, this could be an enjoyable project. There is no doubt St. Louis will ease Hicks into this role – and who knows if he touches five innings soon – but I want to have him on my roster (in deeper leagues) if it does.
- 19% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 1-2%
Through 9.2 innings of work, Smyly has allowed no runs and looks to be an interesting early-season deep league follow. I feel like Smyly is a waiver wire guy every single season. While it’s not the most glamorous stuff, Smyly strikes batters out (836 Ks over 847 innings for his career) and is pretty average among walks per 9, allowing 2.9 over his ten-year career. The issue with the lefty, though, is the long ball. Smyly has notoriously been among the top in home runs allowed for his career and has been prone to some ugly outings. However, Smyly has allowed zero home runs through two starts and has only walked one. Yes, like everyone else here, it’s just an incredibly small sample size – but there is no question you will get some starts of Smyly where he goes six innings, allowing one run and totaling seven strikeouts. Of course, you will get the occasional blowup that balloons his ERA and WHIP, but for a cheap price – it’s worth it to roster Smyly in deeper leagues.
- 7% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 1-2%
Like Smyly, Pineda has had a pretty successful MLB career and even signed a pretty similar 1-year deal as the lefty above. While Pineda is far from what he was at his peak, he is still an effective starting pitcher and could finish this year with a 10-10 record and barely sub-4 ERA and lowish WHIP. The 6’7″ 285-pounder’s strikeout numbers are rapidly declining, but he was tremendous in his control last year, walking just 1.73 per nine. The key here is that he has done it long enough that you should feel confident rolling him out against non-elite teams. Given his five-inning, zero-run performance in his first start of the season – I can at least point to the fact that he can get guys out despite the lack of pure stuff. Don’t expect the world here, but expect more than you are.
Closers
- X% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 3-4%
I feel like I talk about Jorge Lopez every week, as he was just mentioned in the at-risk closer article. Yes, contradictory, being that I viewed him as at-risk, and now I am saying bid for him – but that’s what happens when you are a first-year closer on a bad team with a good setup option behind you. After Lopez’s last three outings, I am pretty confident it will take more than one blowup (which he already had this season) for Dillon Tate to take over the role. I have now graduated from low to low/medium job security here and feel like Lopez is probably someone to own (just don’t expect too many). The sinker is different as a reliever, averaging 98 mph and playing way up from what it did last year. Sitting with two saves, a 2.57 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP through seven innings of work – you could do worse if you are hungry for saves.
- 41% Rostered
- Suggested FAAB: 3-4%
I am just as confused as you are at the Royals’ closer situation. Funny enough, this is a lousy team with two really, really good 8th and 9th inning options. Scott Barlow is closer material and succeeded admirably in that role last year. Staumont is also a legit closer option and possesses flamethrower stuff and plus curveball. It really might be a guessing game as to who will get the save in Kansas City – but being that Staumont has gotten two of the last three chances – and they have alternated in closer and setup roles, it can’t hurt to bid on the lesser owned, undervalued Staumont as the favorite for saves moving forward.
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Tyler Oringer is a featured writer at FantasyPros.