Jalen Tolbert was only a two-star prospect (per 247Sports) coming out of McGill-Toolen High School. He chose to stay at home in Mobile, Alabama, and attend the University of South Alabama. After sustaining an injury during the offseason in his first year, Tolbert redshirted and didn’t debut until 2018, playing in only five games. While his sophomore (2019) stat line wasn’t overwhelmingly pretty, that season served as his breakout, as he led his team in receiving touchdowns (six) and yards per reception (19.3). He also commanded a 23.0% target share.
For the next two years, Tolbert had the kind of production we covet from small-school receivers. In 2020 and 2021, he ranked seventh and sixth in receiving yards among all FBS wide receivers. He soaked up 32.5% and 33.4% target shares along the way. Delving deeper into his efficiency, he was 32nd and 12th in Yards per route run among all FBS wideouts with 50 or more targets. While Tolbert’s age (23) and his not being an early declare are red flags on his profile, he checks so many other boxes. He closes the book on his collegiate career with a college dominator (51.2% per PlayerProfiler.com) and target share (33.4%) that both rank in the 96th percentile. After showing out at the Senior Bowl against higher-level competition, Tolbert has proven he has the skills worthy of his projected Day Two draft capital.
Jalen Tolbert was only a two-star prospect (per 247Sports) coming out of McGill-Toolen High School. He chose to stay at home in Mobile, Alabama, and attend the University of South Alabama. After sustaining an injury during the offseason in his first year, Tolbert redshirted and didn’t debut until 2018, playing in only five games. While his sophomore (2019) stat line wasn’t overwhelmingly pretty, that season served as his breakout, as he led his team in receiving touchdowns (six) and yards per reception (19.3). He also commanded a 23.0% target share.
For the next two years, Tolbert had the kind of production we covet from small-school receivers. In 2020 and 2021, he ranked seventh and sixth in receiving yards among all FBS wide receivers. He soaked up 32.5% and 33.4% target shares along the way. Delving deeper into his efficiency, he was 32nd and 12th in Yards per route run among all FBS wideouts with 50 or more targets. While Tolbert’s age (23) and his not being an early declare are red flags on his profile, he checks so many other boxes. He closes the book on his collegiate career with a college dominator (51.2% per PlayerProfiler.com) and target share (33.4%) that both rank in the 96th percentile. After showing out at the Senior Bowl against higher-level competition, Tolbert has proven he has the skills worthy of his projected Day Two draft capital.
Jalen Tolbert Draft Profile
| Position |
WR |
| School |
South Alabama |
| Height |
6-1 |
| Weight |
194 |
| 40-yard dash |
4.49 |
| Age |
23 |
| Class |
Jr. |
| Recruit stars* |
2 |
* Recruit stars via 247Sports
2022 NFL Draft Prediction: Third round
Jalen Tolbert College Statistics
| Year |
Games |
Targets (target %) |
Receptions |
Receiving yards |
Yards per reception |
Catch rate |
Receiving touchdowns |
| 2018 |
5 |
6 (1.9%) |
5 |
60 |
12.0 |
83.3% |
0 |
| 2019 |
12 |
65 (23.0%) |
27 |
521 |
19.3 |
41.5% |
6 |
| 2020 |
11 |
114 (32.5%) |
64 |
1,085 |
17.0 |
56.1% |
8 |
| 2021 |
12 |
136 (33.4%) |
82 |
1,474 |
18.0 |
60.0% |
8 |
Jalen Tolbert Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
Tolbert plays bigger than he’s listed, even when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands. He’s a willing and strong blocker in the run game. That play strength does translate to his receiving profile. Last year, he was 31st in YAC per reception (minimum 50 targets) and one of only nine players with an aDOT of 14.0 or higher to finish with 7.0 or higher YAC per reception. He wins with acceleration and has a mauler mentality with the ball in his hands. The first oncoming tackler simply bounces off him like a pinball on many plays. That is, when they can actually get their hands on him. With his 65th percentile 10-yard split, he can quickly get up to top speed. This should allow his YAC prowess to translate to the NFL.
|
Among FBS wide receivers with 50 or more targets (Statistics via PFF):
|
| Year |
Formation alignment Slot / Wide |
Yards per route run (rank) |
| 2018* |
2.1% / 97.9% |
1.40 |
| 2019 |
3.1% / 96.9% |
1.74 (171 of 290) |
| 2020 |
1.6% / 98.4% |
2.58 (32nd of 146) |
| 2021 |
33.7% / 66.3% |
3.16 (12th of 251) |
*Only six targets
Tolbert has the upside to be a true X at the next level, as he played almost exclusively on the perimeter until 2021. While his route-running does need to be further refined, he can create separation both early and late. He has the necessary footwork and variations in his releases to get free off the line. His footwork needs to be cleaned up, as he needs to be more sudden in and out of his breaks. His feet also get choppy when gearing down on curls or digs.
Tolbert flashes the catch-point strength and body control to win later in his routes on back-shoulder throws or when contested. His contested-target catch rate (42.5%, per PFF) and overall catch rate (58.2%) don’t do proper justice to his strong hands, but he has suffered from concentration drops. This is reflected in his 9.2% drop rate over the last four seasons.
Tolbert faces a learning curve to excel in the NFL consistently, but he has the talent to grow into a No. 1 receiving option. His deep-ball tracking is excellent, but don’t pigeonhole him as only a field stretcher. He can win at all three levels of the field, as he’s recorded a 102.5 or higher passer rating short, intermediate, and deep in each of the last two seasons.
Player Comp
Marvin Jones
Jones carved out a productive college career with two top-20 fantasy points per game seasons and three inside the top 36. He has made a living not only stretching the field and winning at the catch point but operating as a No. 1 option when necessary. Tolbert’s career arc could look similar to Jones’, but Tolbert also has the talent to surpass this comp.
Landing Spot and Dynasty Outlook
Jalen Tolbert dominated small-school competition earning his third-round draft status on the way to big D. Tolbert should be a starter in three-wide sets from Day 1, with stalwart Noah Brown and James Washington as his main competition. Michael Gallup isn’t a sure thing to be ready by Week 1 of this season, so the Cowboys could open the season with Tolbert competing with Dalton Schultz for looks behind CeeDee Lamb. The target totem pole is congested, but landing on a top ten scoring offense with a possible runway to earn early-season volume is a positive.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | TuneIn | RSS | YouTube
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Derek Brown is a fantasy analyst at FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @dbro_ffb.