Career Contextualization

Travis Kelce has been the gold standard for fantasy tight ends in recent years, and Rob Gronkowski has been right there with him when healthy. But for those unable to land Kelce or Gronk in their drafts, Zach Ertz has been a nice fallback option.

Ertz played with QB Andrew Luck for two years at Stanford, catching 16 passes for 190 yards and five touchdowns as a freshman, then putting up 27-346-4 as a sophomore. Luck went pro after the 2011 season, but Ertz had his breakout season in 2012 while catching passes from Josh Nunes and Kevin Hogan. Ertz led all college tight ends in receiving yardage as a junior, finishing with 69-898-6. He entered the draft early and was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles in the second round, 35th overall.

Ertz had a solid NFL debut in 2013, producing 36-469-4 while sharing TE snaps with Brent Celek. The following year, Ertz’s career took flight. From 2014 to 2019, he posted six consecutive seasons as a top-10 fantasy scorer at tight end, averaging 81.5 receptions, 879.0 yards and 5.2 touchdowns a season over that span. Ertz hit his zenith in 2018, setting the NFL record for most receptions in a season by a tight end with 116. He finished with 1,163 yards and eight TD catches that season (but was still the TE2 in fantasy scoring that year behind Travis Kelce).

The Ertz Express came off the rails in 2020. He missed five games with a high-ankle sprain and finished with 36-335-1 while sharing TE snaps with Dallas Goedert. Ertz had career lows in catch rate (50%), yards per catch (9.3) and yards per target (4.7). It was Ertz’s age-30 season, so it was fair to wonder whether he was hitting the decline phase of his career.

It turned out that Ertz was just fine, thank you very much. He got off to a slightly sluggish start in 2021, with 18-189-2 in his first six games. But then the Eagles traded Ertz to Arizona, and the move to the desert reinvigorated the veteran tight end. Ertz had 56-574-3 in 11 games with the Cardinals and was the TE4 in fantasy scoring over that stretch. It should be noted, however, that Ertz played only four games with WR DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI), who missed significant time with hamstring and knee injuries.

Current Situation

Once he joined the Cardinals, Ertz averaged 7.4 targets, 5.1 receptions, 52.2 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. But again, Hopkins is a target hog, and his absence turbo-boosted Ertz’s usage. Ertz averaged 4.5 targets in the four games that he played with Hopkins last season, and 9.0 targets in the seven games he played for the Cardinals while Hopkins was sidelined. Hopkins is going to miss the first six games of the season after receiving a suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. But when he comes back, he’ll claim a sizeable target share. Hopkins had a massive 29.4% target share for the Cardinals in 2020.

Two other potential threats to Ertz’s target share: The Cardinals traded for WR Marquise Brown on Day 1 of the NFL Draft and selected Trey McBride, the best pass-catching TE in the rookie class, on Day 2.

Ertz turns 32 in November, so the age cliff is looming. But after his gopher-hole season in 2020, Ertz demonstrated in 2021 that he still has gas left in the tank.

General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career

The guess here is that if Ertz stays reasonably healthy, he’ll produce something close to 60 catches, 650 yards and five touchdowns in 2022. That would put him in TE1 territory. Even as he enters his twilight years, Ertz still has value — and that value is obviously amplified in TE-premium formats.

But with Ertz turning 32 later this year, his cost is modest in the dynasty trade market. Ertz has much more value to dynasty managers aiming to win a championship in 2022 than to dynasty managers who are in rebuilding or retooling mode. Ertz stakeholders who view themselves as contenders should hold him. Ertz investors who realistically don’t have the firepower to win a title in 2022 should sell him now, while he still has appeal to contenders. The FantasyPros dynasty trade value chart suggests that players with dynasty value comparable to Ertz’s include Alexander Mattison and D.J. Chark. If you’re trying to trade Ertz for rookie draft capital, it’s reasonable to ask for a pick in the 2.11-3.05 range.

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