Career Contextualization
The first overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence didn’t exactly light the world on fire during his rookie season.
As a rookie, Lawrence went 3-14, completing 59.6% of his passes for 3,641 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Lawrence finished as the QB22 in fantasy as a rookie. Was Lawrence great? No. Only Zach Wilson had a worse passer rating than Lawrence did when comparing the 2021 class.
However, rookie quarterbacks are supposed to struggle in their first year in the pros. Sometimes, players like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert skew our thinking. And to be fair, none of the 2021 rookies were exceptional.
Career Contextualization
The first overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence didn’t exactly light the world on fire during his rookie season.
As a rookie, Lawrence went 3-14, completing 59.6% of his passes for 3,641 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Lawrence finished as the QB22 in fantasy as a rookie. Was Lawrence great? No. Only Zach Wilson had a worse passer rating than Lawrence did when comparing the 2021 class.
However, rookie quarterbacks are supposed to struggle in their first year in the pros. Sometimes, players like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert skew our thinking. And to be fair, none of the 2021 rookies were exceptional.
Lawrence had the same struggles that most rookie quarterbacks experience. He was slow to process the game at a higher speed. He struggled to make proper reads against NFL defenses. He got happy feet in the pocket and struggled to stand in and make confident throws.
But there were plenty of flashes throughout Jacksonville’s dismal season. Lawrence’s raw arm talent in college was on display in the NFL at a less frequent rate. And let’s be frank, Lawrence was already behind the eight-ball with Urban Meyer as his first head coach.
Current Situation
Lawrence’s situation can’t get much worse. But I’m not sure if it’ll be drastically better in 2022. The Meyer experiment is mercifully over. Now, Lawrence will be coached by Doug Pederson, who helped develop Carson Wentz before being ousted from Philadelphia. Wentz was an MVP candidate under Pederson in 2017 but has been a disappointment ever since.
After Meyer crashed and burned so badly, the Jaguars might’ve preferred someone with a proven coaching track record, which Pederson has. Pederson knows the quarterback position well, having played it professionally. But 2017 was a long time ago.
For certain, Jacksonville will throw a bunch with Pederson in the fold, as the Eagles ranked inside the top 10 in pass attempts in all but one of Pederson’s five seasons with the Eagles. Lawrence’s new offensive coordinator is Press Taylor, who worked in Philadelphia from 2013-20 before coaching Wentz last season in Indianapolis.
Jacksonville was also busy improving the roster around Lawrence during free agency. They bolstered the offensive line by signing five-time Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff. They inked slot receiver Christian Kirk to a four-year deal worth $84 million. While Kirk is an excellent receiver coming off a career year, he’s far from a No. 1 and struggled to get open and make an impact when DeAndre Hopkins was sidelined. The Jags also took a flier on Evan Engram. Pederson’s offense prioritizes the tight end, so Engram and holdover Dan Arnold could get plenty of opportunities next season.
The Jaguars have an interesting collection of receivers, but none who are proven alphas. The Jaguars could certainly add a pass catcher in the draft, and probably should, to give this group more firepower. Jacksonville will also benefit from Travis Etienne returning after losing his rookie season to a Lisfranc injury.
There’s no doubt Lawrence’s situation is better heading into 2022. But it still might not be enough to warrant a considerable leap next season.
Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career
Unless your expectations were unrealistic, there’s no reason to panic about Lawrence yet. He struggled as most other rookies do, and he was dealt an unfair hand with the situation his organization built around him. However, the Jaguars don’t exactly have a strong track record when it comes to roster building, so it’s hard to give this franchise the benefit of the doubt.
Lawrence is still a prodigious quarterback prospect. If Pederson does better than I expect, then 2022 could be the year he truly catapults. Lawrence is a definite hold for me in dynasty leagues, as I’m still a big believer in his abilities.
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