Career Contextualization
Travis Kelce has been one of the most bankable players in fantasy football for years, and the 2021 season was no exception. Kelce finished as the TE2 in half-PPR formats by a wide margin, hauling in 92 catches for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns.
Even at age 32, Kelce is still one of the league’s best at the position, if not the best. He still manages to separate from defenders, is still a threat after the catch and is a red zone monster. So, what else really needs to be said?
Actually, quite a bit. While Kelce is undoubtedly the safest option at the horrific tight end position, he doesn’t enter 2022 with quite as much certainty as in years past. Could now be the time to commit the unthinkable and trade Travis Kelce?
Current Situation
The Kansas City offense wasn’t quite itself for stretches of the 2021 season. Kelce still got his and delivered an excellent season, but it wasn’t as pretty as what we’re used to getting from him. Kelce reached the end zone just once over an eight-game stretch from Week 6 through Week 13. He had only two 100-yard receiving games after Week 3. He sometimes went quiet for long stretches and those who had Kelce last season know the ride wasn’t as pretty as the end result.
And now, Kelce’s situation has changed drastically. Patrick Mahomes is still his quarterback, and that’s obviously great news. But Tyreek Hill was suddenly traded away to Miami, a move that will have significant fantasy ramifications. Kansas City will try to fill Hill’s void with new free agent slot man JuJu Smith-Schuster and speedster Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And while MVS can stretch the field, he’s hardly the dynamic downfield threat Hill was.
The beauty of Kansas City’s weaponry was that Hill’s downfield speed forced defenders to allocate safety help deep, allowing Kelce to dominate in the middle of the field. With Hill now gone, defenders can focus on clogging up the middle while daring MVS to beat them.
The good news is Kelce will be the clear-cut No. 1 weapon in Kansas City’s passing game. The bad news is every opponent will prepare, knowing that too.
General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career
Kelce has shown few signs of slowing down.. And given how terrible the tight end position is, Kelce’s floor is probably better than about 80 percent of tight ends leaguewide. So, if you’re in contention, it makes complete sense to hold onto Kelce and enjoy your weekly advantage at the thinnest position in fantasy football.
However, if there was an opportune time to say “thank you” and “goodbye” to Kelce, this might be the last chance to get peak value for him. He’ll be 33-years-old in October and is clearly exiting his prime. Even legends like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates, who played into their late 30s, had some drop-off. As long as Mahomes is under center, Kansas City still projects to be one of the league’s top offenses. But there hasn’t been more uncertainty about this unit since Mahomes took over as quarterback.
Kelce is still a stud until further notice. But don’t be afraid to hear offers on him if you’re looking to sell for top value.
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