2021 Production

Career Contextualization

The Chargers selected Keenan Allen in the third round of the 2013 NFL draft, and he’s now on his third contract with the team.

Allen burst out of the gate with a 1,000-yard season as a rookie but saw his production decline in 2014. He then missed half of 2015 and nearly all of 2016 due to injuries.

However, beginning in 2017, Allen settled in as one of the most consistent receivers in fantasy football. He’s averaged at least 12.8 fantasy points per game for five years in a row and never finished lower than WR14 during that time frame.

Current Situation

Allen will turn 30 years old this month, but he has not shown any signs of slowing down from a production standpoint.

His team situation is close to ideal from a fantasy perspective. It starts with being tied to Justin Herbert, one of the brightest young stars in the league. Fresh off winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2020, Herbert tossed 38 TDs and topped the 5,000-yard mark in 2021, while L.A. was the fifth most pass-happy team in the league. He could get even better in year three.

The Chargers appear more likely than not to return the same group of wide receivers that they featured in 2021, with Allen as the undisputed alpha. L.A. did opt to re-sign Mike Williams to a contract rivaling Allen’s, but Allen has consistently earned more targets — and more high-percentage targets — than Williams over each of the five seasons they’ve played together.

Unless the Chargers spend significant draft capital on a wideout, which is admittedly possible, their only considerable offseason addition will be Gerald Everett, who is more likely to soak up Jared Cook’s targets from last year than to eat into Allen’s.

Allen’s current contract runs through 2024, although it will become substantially less costly for the Chargers to get out of it after this season. He’s currently the sixth-highest-paid wide receiver in the league, so he’ll need to continue to produce at a high level to justify his earnings.

General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career

The most likely outcome is that the Chargers wait until Day 2 or 3 of the NFL Draft to select a wide receiver, but even if they spend a first-round pick on one, Allen will enter 2022 as Herbert’s clear go-to guy.

We’ve seen what that kind of production looks like, and it’s very appealing for fantasy purposes. If history is any guide, Allen’s range of possible outcomes is as narrow as it is for any wide receiver in the league. We should expect him to finish somewhere between WR8 and WR14 in 0.5 PPR formats.

The bigger question is what happens to Allen after 2022.

Fantasy managers tend to panic once receivers are on the wrong side of 30, but the reality is that wideouts don’t tend to decline until age 33 or 34, and their best years are often from ages 29 to 31. That means Allen could plausibly have his best year yet in 2022 — and remain a top-15 WR for the next three or four years.

Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Whether you should buy, sell, or hold Allen comes down to what you are trying to achieve with your fantasy squad.

I have Allen in a dynasty league that I’m in with other FantasyPros writers past and present, and I am gearing up for a title run, so I’m holding there. If my team falls out of contention, I plan to shop him at the trade deadline. His year-to-year consistency is a big plus because I don’t foresee his value quickly plummeting.

If you’re in the midst of a complete rebuild, Allen is a prominent name to put on the trade block. In that situation, I’d try to move him before the NFL draft since his value could take a bit of a hit if the Chargers do select a first-round wideout. If you’re finding that your league mates are low-balling you, it is also a viable strategy to hold Allen into the season and see if you can get more for him when a team in your league is looking to add the final piece to go all-in for a championship.

On the other hand, if you have a team built to win now and you have a need at wide receiver, Allen is a great name to consider. This may sound silly, but I’d wait until after he turns 30 to see if that milestone scares the manager who rosters Allen into selling low. Regardless, older high-end wide receivers like Allen often represent the best values on the trade market.

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Welcome to the latest episode of the FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast. Our show is hosted by Scott Bogman (@BogmanSports) and Pat Fitzmaurice (@Fitz_FF). Together, they will help you with your dynasty squads.

Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.