The 2022 NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and we’ll have you covered with everything dynasty fantasy football as you prepare for your startup and rookie drafts. We’ll have many dynasty veteran profiles like this one, rookie profiles, strategy discussions, and featured rankings in our upcoming 2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit.
Career Contextualization
Christian Kirk has spent his four-year NFL career with the Arizona Cardinals after being selected in the second round out of Texas A&M in the 2018 NFL Draft.
The 2022 NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and we’ll have you covered with everything dynasty fantasy football as you prepare for your startup and rookie drafts. We’ll have many dynasty veteran profiles like this one, rookie profiles, strategy discussions, and featured rankings in our upcoming 2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit.
Career Contextualization
Christian Kirk has spent his four-year NFL career with the Arizona Cardinals after being selected in the second round out of Texas A&M in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Entering the league, Kirk was pegged as a wide receiver who would be best utilized in the slot. However, it wasn't until this past season that Kirk played more than half of his snaps from the slot (77%) for the first time.
The poor deployment of Kirk hindered his ability to hit his fantasy ceiling, although he occasionally popped off to keep dynasty managers intrigued by his potential. His best game came in 2019 versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, when he went nuclear, posting 138 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Everything came together for Kirk in 2021 because he was finally used inside. Unsurprisingly, Kirk established career highs across the board in targets (112), receptions (83), and receiving yards (1,035) while filling the void left by an injured DeAndre Hopkins.
Kirk commanded a 21% target share without Hopkins in the lineup and averaged 13.8 fantasy PPR points per game - a top-10 per-game average. In addition, he finished with the second most receiving yards from the slot among all wide receivers.
Current Situation
I'd presume that Kirk maintains his role inside with the Jaguars after they got little production from that position in 2021. Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault ranked in the bottom 10 with 1.30 yards per route run from the slot. Kirk ranked 13th with 1.80 yards per route run from the slot. He is shaping up to be the new Amari Rodgers for Trevor Lawrence, operating from the inside.
Rodgers was Lawrence's go-to receiver during the quarterback's final year at Clemson, so it makes sense why the Jags would spend so aggressively on a slot WR. And without much more in the way of established competition on the wide receiver depth chart, it's not crazy to think Kirk can lead Jacksonville in targets, especially if he earns Lawrence's trust early on in the summer.
Kirk's 74% targets to slot rate ranked eighth among all WRs - a mark eerily similar to the number generated by Jags slot receiver Jamal Agnew. Agnew went through a midseason stretch (Weeks 5-10) when he led Jacksonville in targets.
General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career
Kirk's new landing spot is a boon to his dynasty stock now that he is attached to a young franchise quarterback for the next four years.
He is a player I would hold/buy, as he's got prime years ahead of him at just 25 years old. The market is also fixated on how Jacksonville overpaid Kirk to acquire him in free agency - four years, $72 million - which also suggests that he isn't viewed as a dynamite asset by the consensus. A strong 2022 showing will stabilize his value and will likely make him much tougher to acquire.
At worst, he seems like a strong WR3 dynasty asset who can elevate to WR2 status quickly with an up-and-coming quarterback.
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