Devy leagues can be really overwhelming, especially if it is a first for someone. Luckily, through countless mistakes and regrets, I have been able to compile do’s and don’ts. The overarching goal for me today is to help managers avoid costly mistakes in the early rounds and assist managers in steering clear of my mistakes so they can avert avoidable pitfalls.

The Don’ts

Don’t Draft Unestablished Quarterbacks

Quarterback is a position I am hesitant to spend high draft capital on unless I feel I am dealing with a prospect that has shown success for more than one year. Looking no further than 2021 devy startups presents us with the perfect example of a pristine train wreck. DJ Uiagalelei and Spencer Rattler frequently took turns being the first or second overall pick. A year removed from those drafts, Spencer Rattler is currently ranked QB15, and DJ Uiagalelei is ranked QB8. While I am not suggesting this was a foreseeable catastrophe, it does a fantastic job outlining how unstable things are, even ‘sure things’. Every year brings volatility, so I tend to stay away from the quarterbacks who haven’t proved their capabilities for more than a year. This philosophy protects my devy squads from a first round bust, giving you flexibility later. That flexibility offers opportunities to take shots on quarterbacks who have yet to ‘strut their stuff’ (Anthony Richardson is my prized mid-round quarterback this year).

Don’t Draft Tight Ends

Unlike Quarterback, Tight End is the position I want nothing to do with. Looking at the Top-12 dynasty tight ends from FantasyPros, the average 247 incoming freshman ranking was: 29. When accounting for the Tight Ends not ranked at that position, the average was 46. Darren Waller was ranked as a safety, and Dallas Goedert was unranked. Finding a productive tight end for a dynasty team is a task in and of itself. From a probability standpoint, focusing draft picks on positions with multiple starters in your lineup makes more sense. Temptations will arise in almost every draft class; however, for every alluring prospect, the pitfalls are plentiful. If I need to prove my point further, let’s entertain a stroll down memory lane. Here are the Top-5 tight end recruits from 2015 to 2019.

• 2015: No.1 Alize Mack, No.2 Chris Clark, No.3 Hale Hentges, No.4 Jackson Haris, No.5 Garrett Williams
• 2016: No.1 Issac Nauta, No.2 Kaden Smith, No.3 Devin Asiasi, No.4 Jake Hausmann, No.5 Naseir Upshur
• 2017: No.1 Colby Parkinson, No.2 Brock Wright, No.3 Cole Kmet, No.4 Josh Falo, No.5 Hunter Bryant
• 2018: No.1 Brevin Jordan, No.2 Jeremy Ruckert, No.3 Luke Ford, No.4 Zack Kuntz, No.5 Kyle Pitts
• 2019: No.1 Baylor Cupp, No.2 Keon Zipperer, No.3 Austin Stogner, No.4 Hudson Henry, No.5 Brayden Leibrock

I best understand things when I put them into numbers. Assuming someone drafted all thirty of these prospects, they would have a 30-percent chance of the prospect being on an NFL team and a 6-percent chance of the prospect being a fantasy starter. I’ve got a beachfront property in Montana for sale if someone likes those odds.

Don’t Draft for Need

This is a blanket statement overall. However, it is even more critical with devy drafts. The hit rate in the dynasty world is shaky enough as it is. Adding in the additional volatility with Devy makes this principle a necessity. Drafting the best player available is what I like to refer to as a ‘Devy Proxy’ for any team. It is a mechanism that has worked tremendously well for me because it protects me from myself and my biases. It is hard, but Devy is a long game, and many opportunities to trade for your Devy crush will manifest themselves. A startup dictates your dynasty team’s long-term value so protecting yourself from yourself is of the utmost importance.

Don’t Scrutinize Depth Charts

To clarify this, I am not necessarily saying to ignore depth charts. In evaluating factors, depth charts should be in the last tier, especially now that the transfer portal has gone buck wild. For instance, take the very overused but very accurate moniker; the cream rises to the top. Coaches want to win, and they tend to have the most success when they have the best people on the field. Don’t let the fact that a preferred prospect is currently buried on the depth chart dissuade you from drafting them. This rule is best for looking at players around round four and later. That is when you tend to go diving deeper into the devy pool to find your preferred diamonds.

Avoid High-Cost Freshmen

As I have alluded to above, the best strategy is to keep things as risk-averse as you can, early on at least. If you think that dynasty rookie draft picks have a low hit rate, extrapolate that, and you have your devy draft hit rate. I view my devy startup drafts like my seasonal drafts, pick the established best player available through the first three rounds and then shoot for upside beyond that. What happens every year is league mates become enamored with the incoming freshman. With “freshmen fever” comes inflated ADPs, the perfect recipe to get burnt. There are freshman running backs I endorse drafting, but in the first three rounds of a devy draft, that list is minimal. Similar to not drafting for need, this is another ‘firewall’ to prevent seeing high-value acquisitions go up in flames.

Check out our Devy Trade Value Chart

The Do’s

Draft Best Player Available

Much like the ‘Don’t’ columns, the ‘Do’ column aims at lowering your rate of a miss while elevating your chance of drafting a player that will have a high impact on your fantasy team. If only it were that easy, though. Most of the mistakes I have experienced and seen tend to happen in the first three rounds of the Devy startup draft. This is why I do my best to take the best player available, which means when there is a high-value player available, you draft them. It won’t always be sexy or appealing, but I aim to draft players with the highest chance of gaining value throughout their college careers. Value gains lead to opportunities to trade those devy players for NFL players that can give your team points this year rather than points down the road. That, however, is a subject for an entirely different article, so I’ll move on.

Utilize Analytics

Ignoring analytics is similar to ignoring the measurements with a baking recipe; it just leads to disaster. There are a few analytics you can focus on for devy purposes. The first is ‘Dominator Rating,’ which measures a player’s involvement with his college team. The main threshold for the dominator rating is above 20-percent. Once a player logs a Dominator Rating above that threshold, that season qualifies as a breakout season. A breakout season is an essential box to check regarding a player being relevant for dynasty teams. Yards per Team Pass Attempt (YPTPA)/ Attempt (YPTA) is used as an efficiency metric. For receivers, YPTPA is used since their primary production comes via passes. For running backs, YPTA is used since their output is spread through the passing and rushing game. The thresholds you want to see are a career average above 2.0 and have their final season above 2.5 YPTPA/YPTA. The final metrics revolve around a player’s target share and receiving yard share. The thresholds you want to see your wide receiver is to exceed a 25-percent for target share and receiving yards market share. A running back should exceed a target share of 8-percent and a receiving yard market share above 11-percent.

Emphasize Running Backs

Positionally, running backs have the best hit rate from a macro standpoint. This is due to the scarcity of the position in dynasty leagues. As long as the running back position is scarce, running backs will be valuable regardless of their talent level. In devy drafts, I do my best to have my heaviest drafted position be running back. Doing this allows fantasy teams a floor of running back depth with a much higher ceiling. It is also worth mentioning that it is easier to trade for depth wide receivers than depth running backs. Running backs make the fantasy world go round, and devy drafts are the grease to those wheels.

Focus On Vacated Opportunities

Finally, something on how to handle the later rounds! Vacated opportunities are the targets and carries left behind to the college teams by the player leaving via NFL or transfer portal. Targeting teams that have a high vacated target and carry total is a good precursor of who to target in later round drafts. Unclaimed opportunities mean players need to step up and produce. Those players tend to increase value from their initial acquisition cost. When looking for later-round Devy players, vacated opportunities tend to be in the mix of what allows a player to have a breakout year. In layman’s terms, very little competition allows more opportunities for players previously ‘buried’ on depth charts.

The Must

Analyzing the trends within your league is one of the most valuable strategies you can deploy. You can gain a lot of insight about your league mates’ preferences just by how they approach the Devy draft. I also feel responsible for acknowledging that trading a Devy player for an established NFL player in most cases is more often than not a ‘winning’ move for any fantasy team. Ultimately, enjoy this process and remember that it is your team end of the day, so taking the players you want allows for the most amount of fun.

• An Introduction to Devy Leagues
• Devy Draft Strategy Guide
• Devy Sleepers to Target
• Devy Mock Draft: Round 1
• Incoming Freshmen Running Backs to Watch
• Incoming Freshmen Quarterbacks to Watch
• Incoming Freshmen Tight Ends to Watch
• A Devy Guide to the Transfer Portal

Happy drafting and good luck!

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