The late-round quarterback approach isn’t a novel idea in 2022. In many instances outside of the Superflex realm, it’s now commonplace with league mates playing chicken during drafts to see who can wait on quarterbacks the longest. J.J. Zachariason was a pioneer in bringing this methodology to the forefront of the fantasy football discussion. Bless him for it. With the league shifting to more passing and rushing now almost a prerequisite for the position, we see breakout performances from quarterbacks almost yearly. Today I will outline three signal-callers currently outside the top 12 in ECR who have top-five upside in 2022.
Justin Fields (CHI) – QB15
A proclaimed Justin Fields believer I am. Fields showed growth down the stretch that puts a giant leap forward in the range of outcomes. Over his final four full starts, he was the QB5, QB10, QB10, and QB10 in fantasy scoring. We know the rushing upside is there, as we saw over that quartet of games as he averaged 64.2 yards on the ground per game. With that in his back pocket and the improvement he saw as a passer, this lofty finish is possible. In full starts during Weeks 8-15, he averaged 243.7 passing yards per game while also ranking (minimum 50 dropbacks) fourth in big-time throw rate (6.0%, per PFF). Over that same span, he had the tenth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (2.6%). A sophomore leap into the stratosphere could be in the cards for Fields in 2022.
When it’s Justin Fields timepic.twitter.com/T4dukqwlYv
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) August 14, 2021
Trey Lance (SF) – QB13
Let’s stick with the Konami code upside for pick number two. As small of a sample as we received with Fields, the number of games for Trey Lance last season that we can put under the microscope is even tinier. In his two games started, he finished as the QB20 and QB10, averaging 20.2 fantasy points with only 220.5 passing yards per game. He managed this by also racking up 60 rushing yards per game. However, he scored only two total touchdowns in this sample. This production is conceivably his floor if or when he’s named the starter in 2022. In an offense that’s ranked inside the top 13 in points per play in two of the last three seasons, we know the 49ers’ scoring potential is high. Lance will likely climb inside the top 12 as soon as we get clarity on the Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF) situation, so I’ll happily take the chance to mention him now before it disappears.
Derek Carr (LV) – QB16
No one wants to admit it BUT…
Derek Carr has Top 5️⃣ upside in 2022pic.twitter.com/ywjB8wvlH2
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 16, 2022
No, I’m not a prisoner of the moment. And Yes, I’m serious as a heart attack that Derek Carr can enter the top five discussion if all of the stars align this year. I like passing volume. Do you? Last year Carr was fifth in pass and deep ball attempts and tenth in red-zone passing attempts. Carr checks all the boxes in terms of raw volume and splash play opportunities. I don’t think the Raiders landed Davante Adams (WR) to pair with Hunter Renfrow (WR) and Darren Waller (TE) to morph into a run-first offense, so even with the offensive scheme change, the onus will still be on slinging the rock. Carr needs touchdown variance to swing in his favor to find himself among the league’s top-shelf options. Last year (minimum 400 pass attempts), he had the fifth-lowest passing touchdown rate (3.7%), with only Ben Roethlisberger (FA), Sam Darnold (CAR), Trevor Lawrence (JAX), and Matt Ryan (IND) finishing below him. However, this is where Adams again enters the equation. Adding this red zone maven with natural regression, we have a perfect storm brewing for Carr in 2022.
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