You’re dead wrong if you thought for a second the NFL couldn’t possibly have an encore for the fury of Day 1 of the draft. With a flurry of wide receivers, tight ends, and the running backs getting into the mix, the action was still hot and heavy. Green Bay and Kansas City finally addressed their ailing wide receiver rooms. Some landing spots gave us shivers and others a nauseous feeling. Let’s see who gets to eat a W and who is left choking on an L.
Winners
Chrisitan Watson didn’t sneak into the first round, but he was still a top 40 selection (34th overall). The Packers traded up to snag their future number one wide receiver. Watson is discussed as a “raw prospect,” but the numbers he accumulated at North Dakota State were impressive on various levels. Stacking him up against all FBS and FCS wide receivers with 50 or more targets in each season, he ranked top 28 in yards per route run in each season, with the cherry on being his final season, where he led the nation in this metric (per PFF). He also finished 12th, seventh, and 17th over the last three years in yards after the catch per reception (per PFF). That last nugget is extremely important for an Aaron Rodgers target as he loves to pepper the field with short-area targets, so a wide receiver’s ability to create with the ball in his hands is paramount. While many have tired of the Watson hype train, I haven’t. It’s full steam ahead to glory.
The Jets continue their roster makeover by selecting Breece Hall at the top of the second round. Hall’s draft capital alone will give him the upside to own this backfield. As a Michael Carter truther, this saddens me, but more on that later. The Jets have gone out of their way to add blockers upfront that fit their scheme that now has a back that is a hand-in-glove fit. Hall only ranked inside the top 30 at his position (minimum 100 rushing attempts) in yards after contact per attempt once, but his breakaway ability improved every season. He finished his collegiate career ranking 22nd and fifth in breakaway run rate over his final two seasons (per PFF). His hallmark is the ability to press the line and explode upfield through a crease. Hall is a locked-in top 20 running back this season.
Praise be to the fantasy football gods. Skyy Moore lands in the holy grail of fantasy production. Many will automatically point to JuJu Smith-Schuster as a deterrent or Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but these are only potholes on the road to greatness. For Smith-Schuster, you have to go back to 2018 to find a season where he finished above 1.70 yards per route run, and for those keeping score at home, that’s pitiful. Valdes-Scantling is the new cardio king picking up the mantle from Demarcus Robinson. Valdes-Scantling will likely soak up routes run each week, but earning targets and securing them are skills that are foreign to him. Moore is a run after the catch monster who is just now beginning to scratch the surface of his talent. He had never played wide receiver until his freshman year at Western Michigan. That didn’t stop him from finishing with a 91st percentile college dominator and leading the country in missed tackles forced at the wide receiver position last year. The Skyy is the limit.
John Metchie is a player that I pegged to fall into round three of the NFL Draft, but he surprised me with a nice landing spot as the 44th player off the board. Metchie’s production profile out of Alabama is lackluster. He was below the 35th percentile in breakout age, college dominator, and collegiate yards per reception. His 2.22 collegiate yards per route run screams meh (per PFF). What Metchie lacks in his analytical profile, he makes up for in early opportunity. He should have no issues competing with Nico Collins for targets behind Brandin Cooks early on.
Kyler Murray now has a plethora of receiving weapons at his disposal in Arizona. The Cardinals began the draft by acquiring Marquise Brown and followed that up with drafting Trey McBride. McBride will contribute in the passing game and as a blocker keeping Murray clean in the pocket. In 2021 the Cardinals’ pass success rate climbed from 47% (11 personnel) to 50% and 57% when they utilized four wide and two tight end sets. The additions of these two players will allow Kliff Kingsbury to feature these looks more and put Murray in a better spot to succeed.
Diontae Johnson is an unrestricted free agent next season. The team has displayed some frustration with Chase Claypool‘s growing pains, so they now select a player in George Pickens who could lead their passing attack should they move on from Johnson. Pickens’ production track record might not be sparkling, but he is a skilled underneath weapon who can separate easily and create easy completions and big plays at the drop of a hat.
The Colts have dabbled previously with bid body receivers (Michael Pittman) and speed threats (Parris Campbell), but they have now stepped into new territory with a player in Alec Pierce who combines both. Pierce stands at 6’3″ but runs a 4.41 40-yard dash and possesses a 94th percentile burst score. With a 17.0 collegiate yards per reception mark (79th percentile) and an 82nd percentile breakout age, the boxes are checked for Pierce to become more than the field stretcher that he currently is. This passing attack is wide open with only Pittman above him in the pecking order for targets. Pierce could breakout as soon as this season with a savvy vet like Matt Ryan feeding him accurate targets.
The Bills have telegraphed the addition of a running back with pass game skills all offseason. They tried to woo J.D. McKissic away from Washington. Then Duke Johnson was brought in on a free-agent deal. James Cook receiving second-round draft capital is a huge tell that they view him as more than just a limited pass-game option. While Cook might begin in a third-down-only capacity, we saw down the stretch last year they had no issues using Devin Singletary in a do it all role. Cook could earn that opportunity.
The top three rounds of the NFL Draft have concluded, and Gabriel Davis remains the perimeter running mate of Stefon Diggs. After finishing as a top 30 wide receiver in four of his final six regular-season games and his playoff fireworks, the offseason hype has been building. The boo birds have been quick to attempt to quell the hype storm around Davis. At this point in the draft, there isn’t a player the Bills will bring in that will pose a massive threat to his role. Turn the hype radio back up to 11.
Losers
Any Quarterback not named Kenny Pickett
After Kenny Pickett‘s selection in the first round, the quarterback position was given the cold shoulder by NFL talent evaluators. The second round came and went, and zero quarterbacks were selected. Then Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, and Matt Corral finally found new homes in the third round. It’s not impossible for these last three to pan out in the NFL, but the deck is significantly stacked against them to earn early or any starting opportunity. They went from first-round Superflex rookie draft picks to dart throws at best.
The Breece Hall selection is nightmare fuel for Michael Carter stans like myself. Carter, at best, will be regulated to the leaner part of a committee at best. The dream for him to take the lion’s share of this backfield after showing out in a limited sample last year has died. It has perished in the flames of fourth-round NFL Draft capital.
While the Bears roster improved overall with the additions of Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker, Justin Fields was hung out to dry. His top targets remain Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet and the offensive line wasn’t upgraded. Mooney proved to be a formidable talent last year, but he can’t lift this offense up by himself. Fields will have to generate a copious amount of offense and fantasy points with his legs if this year will be deemed a success.
The Colts have featured the tight end position in recent seasons in the passing game and the red zone, but the problem is that it’s been with a committee approach. Last season Frank Reich divided up snaps and routes between Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox, and Kylen Granson. Alie-Cox and Granson will team with Jelani Woods this season to run it back with a probable three-way committee. Woods’ numbers will be capped not because of talent but due to a limited playing time path.
The hits keep coming for Antonio Gibson. First, J.D. McKissic returned to the fold as a free agent. Now, Brian Robinson arrives via third-round draft capital. The team has persistently limited Gibson’s pass game role, but now his early-down and goal-line roles could be in jeopardy. The fall from grace is complete, and the final hope flames of “Christian McCaffrey-like” usage have been extinguished.
I’ve been a Jeremy Ruckert champion during the pre-NFL Draft process. Ruckert has underrated athleticism and receiving chops. Outside of the draft capital, this is a wretched landing spot. The Jets signed C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin this offseason to deals that neither will hit free agency until 2025. Ruckert has the talent to come out of this pile of tight ends on top, but the two could remain thorns in his side as, at best, the third option in a Zach Wilson-led offense.
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