Every year, we use preseason fantasy baseball rankings to gauge the value of players. Normally, the changes we note as we get deeper into Draft Season coincide with news and performances in Spring Training. This year, however, the “news” has easily taken the spotlight, as we had absolutely none of it until March.
The delay of the 2022 preseason also brought a delay in free-agent signings. We listed players like Kris Bryant (1B, 3B, OF – COL) and Trevor Story (SS – BOS) in our rankings, but we couldn’t totally commit to their value. That’s not common for an article written at the end of March and with the start of the regular season looming.
This is, therefore, not a “common” article.
In addition to highlighting the players who vary significantly from the experts’ rankings (ECR) and their average draft positions (ADP), I added a column for how these two numbers compared to what we saw in the middle of March. After all, Spring Training games began on March 17, 2022, and, between the inevitable hype such games bring and the continued flurry of news, we undoubtedly saw some extreme swings in value.
Players ECR Likes More
Observations
Oddly enough, the first four players on the list saw absolutely no change from their mid-March expert rankings, but remain ahead of the pack in terms of their relative value compared to their ADP. There are two takeaways here. The first is that players who ranked higher on the list and missed the cutoff a few weeks ago — I use an ECR vs. ADP change of at least +4 — have probably seen their numbers stabilize. The other note is that fantasy managers simply aren’t buying into these four players the same way that experts are. For one reason or another, they are being slightly overlooked, and that has been consistent since the start of Spring Training.
I mentioned both Trevor Story and Kris Bryant in the introduction to this article for a reason, and we see them highlighted in this chart for their relative ECR as well as the jump they experience from the middle of March. There’s no denying why either has moved up the list — signing with a team and playing half of their games in a ballpark that is conducive to offense — but it is interesting to see that fantasy managers aren’t committing as aggressively as experts. There is probably some downplaying of value for subjective reasons — think about the perception of Story leaving Colorado, even though he is going to Boston, which should be an excellent venue for his right-handed swing.
One name that stands out, given the success he has had in Spring Training, is Francisco Lindor. His ECR remains much higher than his ADP, and he has seen almost no change over the past few weeks. I suspect that he will creep higher in drafts if his hot Spring continues, but it might be possible that fantasy managers are simply not going to take the bait with him and his numbers in March.
Two of the biggest discrepancies between ECR and ADP are found with players who carry similar expectations to their fantasy teams. Giancarlo Stanton and Nelson Cruz are known for power, but they are frequently overlooked in ADP. Oddly enough, despite the massive difference in the numbers, they haven’t budged in weeks. This tells us that Stanton and Cruz are being treated like afterthoughts during the draft, where people are waiting for either to fall to them. No amount of hype or, in the case of Cruz, a new team, has changed anything.
Justin Verlander and Kyle Schwarber round out the first table of players for different reasons, but similar boosts from the middle of March. Verlander is returning from injury, while Schwarber found a home with the Phillies. Both players have been more encouraging to experts than fantasy managers but still have moved up drastically in recent weeks. It may become a trend where neither can be found at a discount.
Players ECR Likes Less
Observations
Shohei Ohtani is always an easy name to list because his value is so intrinsically tied to the format of the fantasy league in which people are laying. The experts can’t account for every system — where some have Ohtani listed as two players — and it’s going to cost him slightly in their rankings. What’s most amazing is that, in addition to Ohtani’s general ADP soaring past his ECR, there has also been a major move since the middle of March. Once again, this is likely a function of the draft format, itself, where more leagues are getting filled and the data can more accurately strengthen the trends.
The aforementioned Ohtani saw the most positive movement among players in this group since mid-Match, but he wasn’t alone. The other player who also jumped 15 spots higher in that same timeframe? Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw’s return to the Los Angeles Dodgers was clearly viewed as a positive for fantasy managers, as it removed the threat of uncertainty — i.e. how would he perform in a different setting? People like consistency, and Kershaw staying with the Dodgers seems to have those drafting fantasy teams.
I made it a point to mention Fernando Tatis, Jr. in the last iteration of this column, and I wanted to seek him out again for the final installment. There’s no mystery why he’s such an important name, as he was injured right around the time where the last snapshot of the ECR and ADP were taken. Not surprisingly, his ADP has plummeted since that point. The amazing part, though, is how it has held up compared to his ECR — which was much more aggressive in its immediate move. As I wrote last time, the idea of having Tatis on a roster for the second half of a fantasy season is so enticing that the numbers he will miss early are being ignored.
Normally, this group of players involves pitchers and catchers for the same reason why someone like Ohtani is highlighted: positional need on a fantasy roster. This time, however, we see some names who aren’t on the list only because of their role on the team. They are also here — and, in many cases, gaining momentum — because they are pitchers who have taken the mound in Spring Training and assuaged fears. For as often as we urge ourselves to not take the numbers too seriously in March, we still see a handful of names gain a boost because of exhibition games.
We close out this group with a few players whose hype continues to carry them. In the case of Wander Franco and Bobby Witt, Jr., we see said “hype” in the superstars they can become. For Cody Bellinger, it’s the return to superstardom for a player who won the MVP award just a few years ago. Experts may be cautious with them, but fantasy managers are not.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.
