The first matchup of the fantasy season has come and gone. There have been a few surprises regarding players struggling and players performing well.
Stars from 2021 like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Tucker, and Joey Votto have started slowly in 2022. Others like Seiya Suzuki and Steven Kwan have been pleasant surprises in how productive they have been.
Here is a look at some surprising statistics after the first 14 days of the season.
Seiya Suzuki (OF – ChC) 11.7% O-Swing
You may have heard O-Swing% called chase rate or reach rate. It measures the number of times the batter swings at pitches outside the zone divided by the total pitches outside the zone. Batters with lower chase rates are typically considered more disciplined hitters because they do not swing at pitches outside the strike zone.
In 2021, the league average O-Swing rate was 31.3%, and so far, in 2022 is 31%. Seiya Suzuki has the best chase rate in baseball after two weeks in the season. Juan Soto led the league with a 15.1% chase rate in 2021 and a 15.7% in 2022. Juan Soto is considered one of the best and most disciplined hitters in baseball, so to have a chase rate of 4% better is a good sign for Suzuki.
| Player | O-Swing% |
| Seiya Suzuki | 11.7% |
| Juan Soto | 15.7% |
| Brandon Belt | 16.5% |
| Mitch Garver | 16.7% |
| Jesse Winker | 17.7% |
Suzuki’s other plate discipline metrics help paint the picture of a player who should have a high floor in terms of batting average throughout the season. His swinging-strike rate is only 5.8%, and his overall contact rate is 79.7%. He has also walked 28.3% of the time compared to a 23.9% strikeout rate.
It can be hard to predict how players will do when they come to the majors from other countries, but the Cubs and fantasy baseball drafters who selected him look like geniuses early this season.
C.J. Cron (1B – COL) .502 Weighted On-Base Average
Weighted On-Base Average or wOBA is an advanced statistic measuring not only how often a player reaches base but also factors in how they reached base. wOBA values walks, singles, home runs, etc., differently and is a useful catch-all fantasy baseball statistic to monitor.
Cron’s .502 wOBA is fifth in baseball, primarily because he leads the league in home runs. He also has the third-highest xwOBA (expected wOBA), further solidifying his performance. He does have a clear advantage playing in Coors Field, as five of his six home runs have come at home.
| Split | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | TB | BABIP |
| Home | 10 | 43 | 40 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 12 | .350 | .372 | .800 | 1.172 | 32 | .375 |
| Away | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .333 | .875 | 1.208 | 7 | .167 |
While some may see Cron’s early production as a fluke, other stats help legitimize his performance. He has a 19.4% barrel rate and a 52.8% hard-hit rate, which would be career highs. Yes, the data still needs time to stabilize, but the fact that he is hitting the ball hard is a good sign of his continued success.
Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD) 1.39 xERA
Clayton Kershaw has dealt with injuries for the past few years and has not looked like the same pitcher he was early in his career. He has lost velocity and durability. Excluding 2020, his ERA has risen each year from 2016 to 2021.
Kershaw sports a 3.00 ERA through 12.1 innings to begin the season, but his 1.39 ERA is more eye-catching. His xERA is the lowest in the league right now, as are his xFIP and SIERA – other advanced ERA metrics.
While there is still a long way to go, it is a promising sign that metrics like these back up what he is doing on the field and suggest he could and should be doing even better. Additionally, Kershaw has yet to walk a batter, showing the excellent command that has made him a top pitcher for so long.
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Taylor Tarter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Taylor, check out his archive.