There are so many viable strategies to win in dynasty leagues, which is one of the reasons dynasty is the best way to play fantasy football.
You can aim to win now or engage in a “Productive Struggle.” You can go Zero RB, Hero RB, or RB-heavy. You can hoard QBs or wait to take them until the late rounds. The possibilities are endless.
No matter which plan you choose, though, you’ll want to pair it with a method for mining value that I like to call the Anticipated Opportunity Strategy.
What Is The Anticipated Opportunity Strategy?
You’re probably familiar with the saying in fantasy football that “opportunity is king.” No matter how talented a player is or how favorable his team context is, it doesn’t mean a lot if he isn’t getting a lot of snaps, targets, or touches.
As its name suggests, the Anticipated Opportunity Strategy is about figuring out which players will likely see a significant uptick in opportunity soon. It’s a strategy for finding late-round gems in your startup draft and impactful waiver wire additions that won’t cost you much FAAB.
There are so many viable strategies to win in dynasty leagues, which is one of the reasons dynasty is the best way to play fantasy football.
You can aim to win now or engage in a “Productive Struggle.” You can go Zero RB, Hero RB, or RB-heavy. You can hoard QBs or wait to take them until the late rounds. The possibilities are endless.
No matter which plan you choose, though, you’ll want to pair it with a method for mining value that I like to call the Anticipated Opportunity Strategy.
What Is The Anticipated Opportunity Strategy?
You’re probably familiar with the saying in fantasy football that “opportunity is king.” No matter how talented a player is or how favorable his team context is, it doesn’t mean a lot if he isn’t getting a lot of snaps, targets, or touches.
As its name suggests, the Anticipated Opportunity Strategy is about figuring out which players will likely see a significant uptick in opportunity soon. It’s a strategy for finding late-round gems in your startup draft and impactful waiver wire additions that won’t cost you much FAAB.
Once these under-the-radar additions to your squad start to pay off, they could be the difference between having a good team and having a great one. Sometimes these players will even turn into every-week fantasy starters, especially at the running back position.
At the very least, they’ll give you the depth you’ll need to survive the injuries that are sure to arrive during a grueling 17-game season. As cheap sources of fantasy production, they could also potentially free you to trade a bigger-name player on your roster or put together a package deal to acquire a high-end dynasty asset.
Anticipated Opportunity Strategy No. 1: Handcuffs
I’ve written an article for FantasyPros called the Running Back Roundup in recent years. I think the column has lots of actionable advice for redraft leagues, but it may be even more helpful for dynasty managers, whose rosters are generally much more extensive.
The Running Back Roundup helps you navigate the backfield committees that dominate the modern game, but more importantly, for our purposes here, it gives you a sense of how a backfield might evolve if the lead back were to get hurt. Different RBs bring different skill sets to the table, and head coaches and offensive coordinators have varying approaches to splitting up the backfield workload. So it is not always the case that the RB who is currently playing the second-most snaps will automatically become the starter in the event of an injury.
Once you understand the structure of a team’s backfield — whether it employs a bell-cow or 2/3-man committee, whether there is a different passing down or goal-line back, etc. — you can figure out which current backups are one injury away from a significant leap in value and production. You’ll find that some of these backups have virtually no role on game day when the starter is healthy, meaning they tend to be very lightly rostered in leagues where nobody is thinking ahead.
I like to think of these players as “lottery tickets,” and given how cheap they are to acquire, I want to roster as many of them as possible. You may be skeptical about your chances of winning the lottery, but if someone offered you 100 free lotto tickets, you’d probably say yes.
While this handcuffing strategy applies most directly to running backs, there are times when it can spread to other positions, too.
Although QB injuries are much less common than RB injuries, some backup QBs have enough upside to merit stashing. Playing QB effectively is pretty darn tough. While you’ll occasionally find gunslingers like Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB – WAS) or Gardner Minshew III (QB – PHI) who can put up big numbers if called upon, the best backup QBs to stash are usually run-first guys like Taysom Hill (QB – NO) and Tyler Huntley (QB – BAL).
Similarly, the degree of difficulty of playing wide receiver in the NFL means that opportunity alone won’t get you as far as it will at running back. Still, some teams’ passing attacks are so potent that any wideout getting significant snaps in the offense becomes intriguing. In years past, this included guys like the Cowboys’ Cedrick Wilson (WR – DAL), the Rams’ Josh Reynolds (WR – LAR), and the Chargers’ Jalen Guyton (WR – LAC).
Anticipated Opportunity Strategy No. 2: Upcoming Free Agents
When it comes to dynasty leagues, you need to be aware of a player’s current situation and think about what their future situation could look like. While injuries are what most frequently open the door to more opportunity in-season, trades and free agency do it during the offseason.
Trades are notoriously difficult to predict — raise your hand if you saw Davante Adams (WR – LV) and Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) getting moved this offseason — but free agency is something we as dynasty managers can plan around. If you haven’t already, familiarize yourself with sites like Spotrac, which can help you figure out which players could be wearing different uniforms a year from now.
Then, scan the list of upcoming free agents for talented skill position players buried on the depth chart or not used effectively by their current team. For the star players on the list, make sure to also think about the other players on their team who would need to step up if they chose to sign elsewhere.
The beauty of dynasty is that there is no offseason, and if you put in the time and do your homework when you construct your roster, your reward will be a spring and summer spent watching your lesser-known players undergo a metamorphosis into fantasy relevancy.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.