Welcome fantasy friends and foes to the Tight Ends to Avoid.
Every fantasy manager tirelessly searches for those sleepers that will gain you the advantage in your league. Once confirmed, those fantasy managers express their excitement by claiming themselves to be geniuses.
Obviously, that is ludicrous, but everyone knows one or more of those types of fantasy managers.
Spotting a bust or players to avoid can be just as important to your fantasy success. Zigging while others are zagging wins fantasy championships.
Find out which three tight ends I am avoiding as I help you prepare for the 2022 Fantasy Football season.
Rankings referenced using FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) for half-PPR formats
T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET): ECR TE6
The Detroit Lions spent a premium draft choice on Iowa’s T.J. Hockenson when they selected him eighth overall in the 2019 NFL Draft. It’s challenging to justify his lofty draft status. I always believed Hockenson was a bit overrated, especially in fantasy circles. Hockenson has issues staying healthy, including being limited to 12 games due to a hand injury this past season.
The direction of the offense is now suspect, with the keys to the offense being handed to new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. The good news for the Lions’ offense is that they saw the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET), who set the team record for receiving yards by a rookie last season. They also signed Jacksonville Jaguars free-agent wideout DJ Chark (WR – DET). Chark offers significant potential in hitting big plays down the field. In addition, the Lions brought back Kalif Raymond (WR – DET), who owns big-play potential, and Josh Reynolds (WR – DET), who added a profound threat to the offense after being signed off waivers during the season.
Their success will be predicated on the success and improvement of quarterback Jared Goff (QB – DET). Goff is suspect at best, and he will make you pull your hair out, but he now has a few offensive weapons that have potential. Goff needs to get them the ball.
There are concerns about the fantasy ceiling of TJ Hockenson on a Lions passing offense with only 23 passing touchdowns. The poor QB play continues this season, but the improved offensive weapons will impede his 21.0% target share and lead to fewer opportunities. As a result, his ceiling is capped and so is his fantasy production. Because of this, Hockenson will not justify his TE7 ranking, which makes him a tight end to avoid in 2022.
George Kittle (TE – SF): ECR TE4
All football fans love watching George Kittle play football. Kittle plays with super enthusiasm and superior physicality. His attitude is infectious. However, his type of play inevitably leads to injuries. Kittle has been injured most of the past two seasons, missing 11 total games.
Last season, Kittle injured his calf in Week 1 and attempted to play with the injury for four games before finally going on Injured Reserve for three weeks. When he returned, he was not the apple of Jimmy Garapolo’s eye.
The 49ers’ offensive philosophy centered around the talents of WR/RB Deebo Samuel (WR – SF), who produced 1770 scrimmage yards and 14 total touchdowns. Kittle was lost in the shuffle of the Niners’ passing offense focusing on Samuel and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF), who became the second-leading receiver on the team.
Kittle only saw nine targets in the red zone all season and, ironically, only produced nine total targets for the entire 49ers playoff run and didn’t produce a score.
Head Coach Kyle Shanahan is faced with a difficult decision at quarterback as we head into the 2022 season. The Niners gave up plenty to obtain Trey Lance (QB – SF), and the general assumption is that he will step in and be behind center for the Niners in Week 1. However, I would not be shocked if Garappolo started. He is making $25 million, and if he didn’t hurt his shoulder, he probably would have been traded already.
The uncertainty at quarterback and the other current offensive weapons outproducing Kittle makes me concerned about his future production. Also, taking into account his injury history, the draft capital of TE3 is too steep of a price to pay.
Dawson Knox (TE – BUF): ECR TE9
One of my strict fantasy rules is to never pay for career seasons. The helium surrounding the player is too high, and the draft capital rises above reasonable expectations. Heading into the 2021 season, one player I avoided was Green Bay Packers tight end Robert Tonyan (TE – GB), who came out of nowhere to score 11 touchdowns on 59 targets in 2020, catching 88.1% of his targets.
I view the Buffalo Bills tight end, Dawson Knox, as this year’s Robert Tonyan. I see a similar dropoff in fantasy production. After a combined 52 receptions in his first two seasons, Knox had a breakout season in 2020, catching 49 passes on 71 targets for 587 yards and nine scores.
The high efficiency displayed will be difficult to duplicate this season, as scoring nine touchdowns on just 71 targets with a meager 4.7 targets per game screams regression.
The Buffalo Bills’ offense will look a lot different in 2022. Quarterback Josh Allen (QB – BUF) is losing veteran wideouts Emmanuel Sanders (WR – FA) and Cole Beasley (WR – FA). However, they added veteran slot wideout Jamison Crowder (WR – BUF), who will be called upon to take over the Cole Beasley role as the slot receiver. Crowder has had trouble staying healthy the past few seasons but was a PPR monster with the New York Jets when healthy.
The Bills also signed former Tampa Bay tight end O.J. Howard (TE – BUF). Howard has never lived up to his first-round hype, primarily due to some injury-filled seasons. In 2021, the Bills finished last in plays where they lined up in two-tight end sets. I will bet that number increases with Howard, who can be a potent weapon for new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who was promoted from the Passing Game Coordinator position.
Dawson Knox is currently ranked as the TE8, which makes me nervous. It’s hard not to go with any player with Josh Allen as their quarterback, but Knox and his lack of targets make the tight end hard to trust. There are plenty of boom-or-bust tight ends for fantasy managers to select. It’s the nature of the position. However, the draft capital is too rich for me, making Dawson Knox a tight end I avoid in 2022.
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