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2022 NFL Draft: Zamir White Injury Breakdown

2022 NFL Draft: Zamir White Injury Breakdown

You’d have to be crazy to invest in an RB with a history of two ACL tears, right?

Conventional logic would suggest yes, but Zamir White remains a highly-attractive NFL prospect despite the injury history. Once touted as the top RB in his recruiting class and the second coming of Todd Gurley, White never really produced the numbers you’d expect from a player with those accolades. Instead, he shared a backfield with James Cook and Kenny McIntosh and, as a result, never broke the 1,000-yard threshold in a single season at Georgia.

Ironically, that now actually works in his favor. White has under 400 total touches in his three years of NCAA competition and enters the NFL without significant mileage already on his legs. That holds particular relevance in the context of having two prior ACL tears.

Single ACL tears for RBs entering the NFL are associated with shorter careers and more missed games. The underlying explanation is that protective structures in the knee – meniscus (shock-absorber) and cartilage (which allows the knee to move smoothly) – suffer irreversible damage at the time of the ACL injury. In White’s risk profile, we must factor in that he’s had one on each side.

While it’s not a death sentence by any means, the estimated risk of long-term durability issues for an RB entering the league with 2 ACL tears is ~40% higher than his uninjured counterparts in the SportsMedAnalytics database. But the story doesn’t end there. You have to factor in athleticism, age at the time of tears, draft stock, and pre-injury production.

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