We’re now just one day away from what every NFL franchise has spent months planning for — the first round of the NFL Draft. We see plenty of big surprises each year during the league’s biggest offseason event. It was shocking to see Mac Jones fall all the way down to New England at 15th overall last year after all the speculation that he could’ve gone inside the top three. If we rewind even further back to 2020, Dallas taking CeeDee Lamb 17th overall was a big surprise, as the Cowboys had much bigger needs on defense and had just given Amari Cooper a massive contract. The biggest head-scratcher in recent memory also came in 2020, when the Packers traded up to grab QB Jordan Love 26th overall even though all-time great Aaron Rodgers still had some gas left in the tank. No one truly knows what’s going to happen on Draft Day, so our featured pundits figured they’d throw their “speculation hats” into the ring and share their biggest shockers and bold predictions for the big day.
Check out Matthew Freedman’s Favorite 2022 NFL Draft Prop Bets
Q1. Who is one player you think will surprise and fall further than expected and why?
Kenny Pickett (QB – Pittsburgh)
“QB Kenny Pickett for Pittsburgh. If the Panthers don’t pull the trigger on Pickett in Round 1 at 6th overall, it’s anybody’s guess where the former Pittsburgh passer falls too. The Steelers seem likely to select Malik Willis over Pickett if both are available at 20, and that creates a lot of uncertainty about where Pickett ends up. Tennessee or Detroit (or a team trading up) seem like the most logical scenario where Pickett gets drafted in Round 1. He finished third in PFF passing grade from a clean pocket (94.3) and first in his class in adjusted completion percentage (79%) during his breakout last season. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“The weakness of this quarterback class could become evident very fast. If Carolina selects an offensive lineman with their first-round pick, Kenny Pickett could free-fall down the board. Many teams picking in the teens have their 2022 quarterback plans already wrapped up, and the Steelers (pick 20) have been fascinated with Malik Willis. Pickett could easily fall to the final picks of the first round if not out of the top 32 altogether. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE – Oregon)
“At what point is a player considered to be falling? With Kayvon Thibodeaux it’s probably after pick five; and most certainly after pick 10. The Jets wouldn’t pass on him twice, right? Once considered to be the No. 1 option in this draft class, the Oregon standout may very well be the third player selected at his position come Thursday night behind Travon Walker and Aidan Hutchinson. There is real concern about his motor, though all the physical traits are evident. If teams are worried about a lack of fire and drive, it’s doubtful they spend a luxury pick on him. ”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)
Sam Howell (QB – North Carolina)
“Sam Howell. His play-it-safe 2021 approach did not build on the foundational expectations from his 2020 season. After losing four of his top weapons to the NFL, Howell opted to look more like an RPO option quarterback than one who was willing to challenge downfield for a bigger play. While this could be a mistake for both NFL teams and fantasy managers, Howell seems to have lost the high-bar expectations from a year ago and may slip further in the draft than projected while teams ponder their 2023 quarterback needs. ”
– John Hesterman (Dynasty League Football)
Q2. Who is one player you think could be selected earlier than expected and why?
Jameson Williams (WR – Alabama)
“WR Jameson Williams for Alabama is going to be a top-10 pick. He’s routinely viewed as the No. 1 WR in this class and would be the consensus in that category had he not suffered a torn ACL injury. The expectation is that he will start the season on the PUP, but there are plenty of teams that will gladly sit on the draft’s top wideout for a six-week period. Especially ones like the Atlanta Falcons, who are in a full-on rebuild. Williams commanded a 31% dominator rating by hanging 1,561 receiving yards, 20 yards per reception, and 15 touchdowns in 2021 – all achievements that ranked top-three among his 2022 NFL Draft class. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Leo Chenal (LB – Wisconsin)
“Why is there not more love for Leo Chenal? The man is a physical specimen, testing in the 90th percentile in the 40-yard dash, broad jump and vertical jump at the NFL Combine. His best comparable NFL player on PlayerProfiler is Luke Kuechly. Remember him? Chenal has all the physical traits and the cerebral capacity to play at a Pro Bowl level in the NFL. He’ll have teams regretting they passed on him when they find out their running back can’t outrun him.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)
Pierre Strong Jr. (RB – South Dakota State)
“Pierre Strong. The tides of the hype surrounding the South Dakota star is swelling, and running back needy teams may be looking for the right guy to fall. That guy is Pierre Strong, who averaged seven yards per carry to finish his 2021 season and notched 18 touchdowns. As a strong, decisive runner who adds pass-catching and breakaway speed, he could easily end up going earlier than anticipated to a team that is looking to bolster its backfield. ”
– John Hesterman (Dynasty League Football)
Tyler Smith (OT – Tulsa)
“Offensive tackle Tyler Smith out of Tulsa could find his name called sooner than many expected. Since February, his expected draft position has been skyrocketing. Two months ago, his EDP was right outside of the top 100 players, and now on the eve of the NFL Draft, he’s flirting with first-round draft status (current EDP: 29.1). If their top tackle option is off the board, don’t rule out the Saints or Chargers grabbing him inside the top 20. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Q3. What is one bold prediction you have for the NFL Draft and why could it happen?
“Nine wide receivers could hear their names called in the first round of the NFL Draft. Per Grindingthemocks.com, nine wideouts currently have EDPs of 42 or higher, with Skyy Moore sitting at the bottom of that tier (42.9). It only takes two surprise teams to make this bold prediction come to life. With wide receiver contracts soaring to epic proportions, NFL franchises could prioritize cost-controlled youth on their depth charts. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“Let’s go with the OVER on 6.5 wide receivers being drafted in the first round. To me that’s Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Drake London, Chris Olave, Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson and Christian Watson (no, not necessarily in that order). It feels like there’s going to be a run at the position towards the back half of the first round. It would be shocking if the Chiefs didn’t take at least one receiver with their two first rounders. ”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)
“Breece Hall is the first running back selected at No. 25 overall to the Buffalo Bills. It’s no secret that Buffalo’s front office has been trying to upgrade the position, specifically with a running back capable of excelling in the passing game. The Bills tried to sign J.D. McKissic this offseason and were heavily rumored to be in the market for Travis Etienne in the 2021 NFL Draft. The fact that they are constantly sniffing around for other running backs despite having Devin Singletary on the roster suggests that Singletary’s late-season surge — he was the fantasy RB3 over the last six weeks – might not be sustainable. Hall represents an immediate upgrade in all facets.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“The Kansas City Chiefs trade up to select Jameson Williams. With a little bit of draft-day-ammo stemming from their trade of Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs are both poised to make a move and in need of help at the receiver position. With the picks they amassed and the need for a tier-one receiver, the Chiefs might be eyeing one of the more talented, pro-ready, and speedy receivers the SEC had to offer. Bold prediction, the Chiefs get inside the top 20 to select Williams. ”
– John Hesterman (Dynasty League Football)
Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their predictions and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more of their thoughts on the NFL Draft.
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