If I said that you could avoid that crushing feeling of having your promising fantasy season derailed by injury, and all you had to do was casually follow along, would you do it?
I’m Deepak Chona, MD, a Stanford-trained orthopedic sports surgeon, founder of SportsMedAnalytics (SMA), and FantasyPros injury analyst. Through SMA, our team has built a custom NFL injury database and predictive machine-learning algorithm to forecast injury outcomes for a given player.
When will he return? How productive will he be? What’s his re-injury risk? All the questions you asked can be answered by combining advanced data analytics with nationally-recognized injury expertise and a passion for getting it right.
That’s our mission. Here’s what we found about this year’s rookie draft class:
WR
(1) Jameson Williams
SMA Concern: 2/5
Recommendation: Buy low
Expect Williams to bounce back strong from ACL surgery this January. Speedy recoveries take 7-9 months, but we’re predicting him back around the 10-month league average (the midpoint of the season). The first 2/3 of his season projects to be unreliable, but he should return to 90% of himself by the last month of ’22. Expect the following year to show us what 100% of Jameson can do. Williams is a major buy low candidate in both real and fantasy football.
Check out his full profile here
(2) George Pickens
SMA Concern: 1/5
Recommendation: Buy low, with caution
Pickens came back to the field from an ACL in eight months, which is absurdly fast. Predictably, he wasn’t yet himself. Don’t read too much into this, as he was playing at only a fraction of his full explosiveness. Re-injury risk is low, and we expect to see a fully healthy and explosive Pickens take the field in Week 1. The track record is limited, but the talent seems real. Injury concern is not. Buy low if he lands with a strong QB.
Check out his full profile here
(3) Justyn Ross
SMA Concern: 3/5
Recommendation: Sell
A congenital spine issue sidelined Ross for a year. He came back, wasn’t that productive, and then fractured his foot. Now what? Derrick Henry and Deebo Samuel have returned from the same foot injury at high levels. The spine issue is rare but is now fully treated. It’s always going to carry some elevated risk, but it’s not likely to derail his career at this point. Overall, the injury history is exotic but not overly concerning. On the other hand, the 4.63 40 time is. Don’t think the explosive talent is there, so I want no piece of this one.
Check out his full profile here
(4) John Metchie III
SMA Concern: 2/5
Recommendation: Buy low
A December ACL tear means yes, Metchie could realistically be ready to play by Week 1, but no, we shouldn’t expect the full-strength player from the jump. According to the SMA algorithm, the most likely outcome is a return one month into the season and a 10-14 month progression before reaching his peak. That puts him around Weeks 6-10. I’m buying low on this one if he lands with a decent QB.
Check out his full profile here
(5) Drake London
SMA Concern: 2/5
Recommendation: Reasonable buy, but I’ll pass
Drake London, on some boards, is the top-rated WR in the draft. A recent hamstring strain and ankle fracture prevented us from seeing him at his peak, which is probably why NFL teams aren’t sweating the subpar 4.58 40-time. You won’t get a discount here, so we’re not picking up extra shares unless he falls deep in fantasy drafts.
Check out his full profile here
RB
(6) Zamir White
SMA Concern: 3/5
Recommendation: Buy low
Two ACLs before entering the league doesn’t help, but White is a 95th percentile athlete with his 4.40 40-time and 128″ broad jump. Production at Georgia wasn’t overly impressive, but he shared a backfield with another RB in the class, James Cook. Look for White to fall on some boards due to the injury history. If he does, I’ll be waiting to buy low on this one for sure.
Check out his full profile here
(7) Kevin Harris
SMA Concern: 2/5
Recommendation: Buy low, with caution
Minor spine surgery barely sounds like it could even exist, but it truly was the case for Kevin Harris in college. He came off of an explosive sophomore season with over 1,100 yards, had surgery in the summer of ’21, and disappointed with only 660 yards the following year. The surgery doesn’t really explain the performance drop since NFL players tend to bounce back without issue from this procedure. That gives us pause about the talent, so I’d take a chance on him only if he looks like he’s falling in my draft.
QB
(8) Carson Strong
SMA Concern: 4/5
Recommendation: Sell
He’s healthy now, but he lacks mobility and has had multiple surgeries on his right knee to address a bone and cartilage injury in the past. Hard to know how mobile he’d be without the injuries, but NFL data is pretty convincing that cartilage issues in the knee prior to entering the league lead to shorter careers, decreased productivity, and increased durability issues. You’re going to have a hard time convincing anyone to buy a QB with that profile.
DE
(9) David Ojabo
SMA Concern: 5/5
Recommendation: Sell
Ojabo’s luck was brutal. Tearing his Achilles during his NFL workouts and now dealing with an injury that projects to take 1.5 years for him to bounce back to where he was before. Re-injury risk is low, but performance dips ~25%. He could opt to play during the second half of this season, but at considerably less than his typical speed. Sell on this one.
Check out his full profile here
LB
(10) Damone Clark
SMA Concern: 4/5
Recommendation: Sell
Clark found out about a need for spinal fusion surgery after an MRI at the Combine. The good news is that incidentally learning about the disc herniation is the safest way to do so. The bad is that these take a LONG time to bounce back from. Don’t expect to see him on the field in 2022. When he comes back to start 2023, he’ll still likely be only 85% of himself. Hard pass for me.
DB
(11) Derek Stingley Jr.
SMA Concern: 2/5
Recommendation: Buy
Stingley tore the Lisfranc ligament in his foot and had it fixed surgically seven months ago. He’ll be cleared for Week 1, but Lisfrancs are hard for perimeter players to come back from. Typical WRs, RBs, and DBs see 20 percent declines in production initially, and this trend often lasts up to two years. However, even at only ~85%, Stingley put up a wild 4.37 40-time and 38 inch vertical. He projects to make a nearly full athletic recovery six to eight weeks into the ’22 season. I’d buy, though I doubt we’re getting a real discount here.
Check out his full profile here
(12) Andrew Booth Jr.
SMA Concern: 3/5
Recommendation: Pass
Booth missed both the combine and his Pro Day with two different injuries, which ordinarily would be pretty concerning. However, one issue was a quadriceps strain, and the other was a sports hernia. Neither of those should be at risk of popping up again, but sports hernias do come with shorter careers, and more missed games along the way from minor injury issues to follow. The talent seems solid, but I’ll pass on this one.
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