When is Joel Embiid coming back? He’s out indefinitely with a fractured facial bone + concussion.

If everything goes great with the concussion recovery, he could be back as early as five days. That would make him eligible by Game 2 against Miami. But, the facial fracture is tricky. You might remember that Embiid had one of these four years ago, forcing him to have surgery and miss three weeks.

I talked with two facial surgeons trained at Stanford and Harvard to understand the deal this time. Both said that doctors could treat a number of these injuries without surgery. In that case, if Embiid really wants to, he can play in a protective mask with the known understanding that a bad hit could turn a nonoperative injury into a surgical one. On the other hand, if he does have surgery, he’s probably looking at a 3-week timeline before returning to play.

But, Sixers fans, one clue points to a significant silver lining here. If Embiid did need surgery, he probably would have had it already since every day of that 3-week recovery timeline could be hugely impactful. The fact that he hasn’t leads us to think that he will try to play through this issue after his concussion recovery allows.

When Joel Embiid returns, expect him to return to peak form without missing a beat. NBA data tells us that he’s at higher risk of having a lower extremity injury (4x higher than normal, though still not super high overall). He’ll also be more susceptible to a worse concussion, but this is also a relatively uncommon event.

There will soon be more to the Embiid injury story, but right now, our prediction is a Game 2-3 return at full strength + a sweet-looking mask. Stay tuned.

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