Luck, planning and skill normally all play equal roles in determining who wins your league’s fantasy baseball championship in the end. While luck has certainly been a bigger factor in one’s success over the last two years, we’re all hoping that 2022 is a step back to the status quo, not just for MLB, but for the world at large. If this is the case, it would mean that thoughtful drafting will be even more impactful than it has been recently in what is fortunately shaping up to be a relatively normal season.
In fantasy sports, the line between victory and defeat can be thin. But this is especially so in baseball — a game rife with plenty of variables, randomness and frequent overly lucky or unlucky performances. This is why it’s necessary to target as many heavily undervalued players as you can, especially as you head deeper into your draft. The more you acquire, the higher your odds are of having enough difference-makers that will push your team to the title. To aid you in your championship journey, we’ve summoned our featured analysts to share their insight on which undervalued players have high-end, league-winning potential.
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Q1. What one hitter do you believe will be this year’s league winner (i.e. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jonathan India, and Cedric Mullins last year)?
Trent Grisham (OF – SD)
“Unless you have an absolutely monstrous season like Vlad Guerrero Jr. did in 2020, a roto league winner will likely need to be a five-category contributor, with stolen bases being a big factor. There is one OF going outside the top 140 with a career 162 game average of 21 HRs and 16 SBs. His name is Trent Grisham. He got a slight taste of the bigs in 2019, had a huge 2020 and then struggled through 2021, but he had to deal with various injuries throughout the season. If Grisham stays healthy and returns back to his breakout 2020 form, he can approach a 30 HR/20 SB season, and return huge dividends for those who took a shot and drafted him.”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)
Myles Straw (OF – CLE)
“I’m not sure how many people pay attention to stolen bases anymore but for those that do, I like Cleveland’s Myles Straw to lead the American League in the category this year. Straw stole 30 in 2021, tying him for second with Cedric Mullins, while trailing league-leader Whit Merrifield’s 40. However, Straw’s thefts were with two different teams, as he started with Houston before getting traded to Cleveland at the end of July. I think he’ll get more even opportunities to run as the Guardians’ leadoff man. Straw boasts an 84 percent success rate through four seasons so I like for him to, well, run away with the stolen base crown in 2022.”
– Mark Ross (Athlon Sports)
Jarred Kelenic (OF – SEA)
“Everyone is down on him because of his struggles throughout his rookie season last year, but Jarred Kelenic is still just 22 years old and has the upside of a superstar. While he finished the 2021 season with a .181 batting average, he did finish the year stronger with a .248 average in September. He dominated Triple-A in 2021, and I’m willing to bet on things clicking for him at the big-league level in 2022. A 20-20 season is not impossible, and you can grab that potential in Kelenic outside of the top 150 players right now.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Jo Adell (OF – LAA)
“I like the opportunity for Jo Adell this year. As a former top-tier prospect, he fell flat on his face in 2020 only to show progress last season. He cut his strikeout rate significantly, had a respectable 9.1% barrel rate and boasted a 115 MPH max exit velocity showcasing his power ceiling. Let’s not forget that he’ll turn just 23 this week and has the speed to steal 10-12 bases boosting his potential value. The Angels moving on from Justin Upton proves that they are all in with Adell. Given that his ADP is near 200, we should be as well.”
– Max Freeze (Freeze Stats)
Eloy Jimenez (OF – CWS)
“If you’re looking for this year’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jimenez is your man. He is going outside of the first four rounds in most fantasy drafts, just like Vlad was last year. The similarities don’t end there. Jimenez is also a former top prospect who is in his early-to-mid 20s, has immense power potential and hits in the middle of a loaded lineup that plays its home games in a homer-friendly ballpark. Neither guy steals bases, but that didn’t stop Vlad from being a league winner, as you may recall.”
– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)
Nelson Cruz (DH – WSH)
“The DH is coming to the National League and the best DH in the league is coming to the Nationals. Perennially underrated Nelson Cruz brings his boomstick to a lineup badly needing pop to support the best hitter in baseball. While he certainly struggled in Tampa last season, Cruz has every opportunity to return a 35-homer, 100-RBI campaign in 2022. Available outside of pick 150 in most formats, Cruz has a chance to return massive value in his age-41 season.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)
Luis Robert (OF – CWS)
“Robert will be drafted in the top 20 picks, but he could possibly finish as a top-five overall talent. Robert offers 30/30 potential with a high batting average and we just scratched the surface of what he’s capable of last season. He’s in a loaded White Sox lineup and could easily bring in 100+ runs and RBIs in 2022.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Q2. What one starting pitcher do you believe will be this year’s league winner (i.e. Robbie Ray and Adam Wainwright last year)?
Justin Verlander (HOU)
“The last time we saw a healthy Verlander, back in 2019, he was the single most valuable player — hitter or pitcher — in standard 5×5 categories leagues. The previous year, he was seventh. Yes, Verlander is a 39-year-old pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, but neither issue is the obstacle it once was. We’ve recently seen pitchers like Charlie Morton and Adam Wainwright have success in their late 30s, and a strong return from TJS has become commonplace, too. Neither the Astros nor Verlander have any incentive to limit his innings as long as he’s healthy, and the early indications are that Houston’s ace is ready to rock.”
– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)
“If Justin Verlander regains his 300-strikeout form, he could win another Cy Young. Currently being drafted at 100 overall, there’s no pitcher in that range with the resume of Verlander or the potential to return top-five SP value like him.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Michael Kopech (CWS)
“This one was hard to pick because I love so many of the middle-tier starting pitchers this year. This season, I’ve been drafting Michael Kopech in all of my points leagues, especially if they have designated RP slots since he will be SP/RP eligible in most formats. The more I think about it, though, I like him as a value in all formats this year. His current ADP of 151 doesn’t match the production you should get from him. After throwing just 14.1 innings in 2018 and exactly zero innings in 2019 and 2020, Kopech struck out 103 batters over 69 1/3 innings while being utilized mostly as a multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen in 2021. His 3.50 ERA was backed up by a FIP, xFIP, SIERA and xERA that were all sub-3.00. He should spend at least a good chunk of the 2022 season in the starting rotation, and I have him projected for double-digit wins, approximately 140 innings and close to 200 strikeouts. If you can draft someone like that in the 12th round, he’s a league winner.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Walker Buehler (LAD)
“Walker Buehler tied for third in the National League last season with 16 wins while teammate Julio Urias led the way with 20. Urias will certainly be a factor once again, but I like Buehler to win more than 20 games on his way to making a strong case for the NL Cy Young Award. Buehler led the majors in 2021 with quality starts, meaning he gives his team a chance every time he takes the mound. With an already-potent Dodgers lineup adding Freddie Freeman to the mix and the bullpen boasting more depth, including the recent acquisition of Craig Kimbrel, it’s not hard to envision a few of the quality starts turned no decisions (seven last year) going the other direction in 2022. After all, you can’t spell Buehler’s first name without a W.”
– Mark Ross (Athlon Sports)
Luis Garcia (HOU)
“I can’t figure out why Luis Garcia is going after pick 150 in drafts this year. In his first full MLB season, all he did was strike out 167 batters in 155 innings with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Garcia’s surface stats are backed by his 13.4% swinging strike rate and a cutter/slider combination that he threw 35% of the time while generating whiffs at over a 40% clip. Most projection systems have him throwing fewer innings in 2022, which is why he’s a value at his current ADP. Garcia has the upside to throw 180 innings with over 200 strikeouts and solid ratios while pitching on a great team.”
– Max Freeze (Freeze Stats)
Alex Wood (SF)
“We’ve seen stretches of dominance for Alex Wood in the past, but injuries have often put a damper on the promising results. Wood got back to a respectable workload in 2021 with 138.2 innings pitched, compiling a 3.44 xFIP paired with a very enticing 19.3 K-BB% — the best rate of his career. If Wood, who’s available outside the top 200 on draft day, can somehow get to 170 innings this season for San Francisco, he has a chance to return top-20 value amongst starters.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)
Sonny Gray (MIN)
“Sonny Gray has been one of the more volatile arms in baseball over the last several seasons, but he is being far too undervalued at his current ADP. Almost all of his advanced stats were very good to great last season and he had an expected ERA of 3.25, compared to his actual ERA of 4.19. He gets a ballpark upgrade with his move to Minnesota and is in line to start a ton of games as Minnesota’s ace. Gray has all the makings of a player ready to crush his ADP. All you have to do is draft him.”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)
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