We’ve now got a couple full weeks under our belt. Less seasoned fantasy managers might now feel compelled to think that guys like Connor Joe and Kyle Wright will stay elite for the entire season, or that it’s already a lost season for Bo Bichette and Brandon Woodruff. More experienced fantasy GMs know not to give in to these early-season trends and instead aim to use them to their advantage. They will attempt to acquire as much as they can by trading away hot starters like J.P. Crawford and Nestor Cortes Jr. while trying to get Brandon Lowe and Jose Berrios at a discount.

The season is still young enough to expect some regression to the mean for those who are playing exceptionally well above or below their expectations. We see it happen every year. Winning the early-season trade market in fantasy sports is about exploiting the small sample sizes and getting ahead of the curve on these positive or negative regressions. That’s exactly what our featured pundits are here to do today. Read on to see their favorite buy-low and sell-high candidates for the final week of April.

Q1. What one MLB player are you trying to buy low and why?

Jean Segura (2B – PHI) 
“Jean Segura is an interesting name to kick the tires on in the early going. He’s put together some good-but-not-great numbers with a .265 average, a pair of homers, and six runs scored, three RBI and a steal. Segura somewhat quietly took over as the Phillies leadoff man and has now hit in five straight games. He’s actually been even better than the results, with a 53.8 hard hit % and 7.7 barrel %, both marks that would represent career bests. Segura was outside the top-20 at the second base position on draft day but at this point is preferable to Jake Cronenworth, Jorge Polanco, and Chris Taylor at the position.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)

Jesse Winker (OF – SEA) 
“A .182 BABIP has killed Jesse Winker. According to FanGraphs, his Statcast batted-ball data results in a .292 xBA and .486 xSLG. In addition, the outfielder’s plate discipline hasn’t wavered during his early-season struggles. If you can pounce on a discount from a gamer panicking about Winker playing at T-Mobile Park, I advise doing so. Some outfielders off to a fast start I’d flip for Winker include Connor Joe, Andrew Benintendi, Marcell Ozuna, and Michael Brantley. Perhaps you could fetch Winker from someone who loves prospects by flipping them Seth Beer.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)

Whit Merrifield (2B/OF – KC) 
“Now is the time to buy low on Whit Merrifield. He is off to a horrid start to 2022 and has a negative seven wRC+ to pair with his .136/.164/.169 slash line. The good news is he is still running and is 3-for-3 in stolen bases. While his contact is down a bit, it is not concerning. His hard-hit rate of 31.4 percent is the highest since 2016 and while it is a small sample, it is encouraging. Merrifield will rebound and be his normal self who hits close to .300 with 30 or more stolen bases and 10 home runs.”
– Chris Clegg (Fantrax)

Freddy Peralta (SP – MIL) 
“Freddy Peralta. Walks have been a problem for him so far, but his control is improving with each start and he’s still striking out 12 batters per nine. The high BABIP against him and low LOB% suggest bad luck, so if a panicked manager is ready to part with him, I’d gladly take him off their hands. If I could get him for someone like Pablo Lopez, who’s off to a great start, I’d do it in a heartbeat.”
– Scott Youngson (Fantasy Mutant)

Kyle Tucker (OF – HOU) 
“You shouldn’t really be able to buy low on him, especially since he had a similar slow start a year ago, but Kyle Tucker is a prime target if you have any rivals with goldfish memories. He’s a five-category stud in his prime on a good team. A couple of unlucky weeks doesn’t change that.”
– Kyle Bishop (RotoBaller)

Q2. What one MLB player are you trying to sell high right now and why?

Connor Joe (1B/OF – COL) 
“Everyone’s favorite preseason sleeper, Connor Joe is the player I am looking to sell high on. Joe is off to a scorching-hot start and has four home runs and a .322/.423/.565 slash line. His contact rate is up five percentage points from last season, but his groundball rate is up significantly. He has surprisingly been strong on the road, and eventually we usually see Rockies’ home/road splits become pretty drastic. With the hype around Joe, you might get a consistent top-100 type player and I am more than willing to make that kind of trade if the opportunity is there.”
– Chris Clegg (Fantrax)

Owen Miller (1B/2B – STL) 
“Owen Miller has been one of the early season’s most popular waiver pickups thanks to an impressive 1.431 OPS through Sunday’s action. That’s over a span of a mere 36 plate appearances, though, and there’s not a lot to suggest that he’s actually transcended his average prospect status. When the absurd .542 BABIP corrects, you’ll be left with a player who doesn’t have any loud tools or category juice in a lineup that’s light on talent outside of Jose Ramirez. If the opportunity to land a more established guy presents itself, take advantage.”
– Kyle Bishop (RotoBaller)

Seiya Suzuki (OF – CHC) 
“Seiya Suzuki. I think he’s going to continue to be a good MLB player, but the hype surrounding him right now might net you a much better one. His .240 xBA, .448 BABIP, and 25% K-rate indicate the batting average is going to fall off, and as pitchers get a book on him, he figures to go through an adjustment period. If I could pry Yordan Alvarez away from a nervous league mate in exchange, I wouldn’t think twice. ”
– Scott Youngson (Fantasy Mutant)

Steven Kwan (OF – CLE) 
“The shine is quickly wearing on the Steven Kwan breakout after the rookie outfielder went hitless in two straight games (the horror!). It’s been a great ride and very fun to see Kwan rise to obscurity to become a top-100 player in the season’s first month, but even with that .341 batting average, Kwan has yet to hit a homer or swipe a bag. I know, that’s not his thing, and well, that not being his thing is just not my thing, especially in the outfield. Batting average heavy players with a touch of power and speed can be very useful… but if you can flip Kwan for the aforementioned Jean Segura or an early struggler like Jesse Winker, Randy Arozarena or Bryan Reynolds, go ahead and do it.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)

Tylor Megill (SP – NYM) 
“Sometimes, selling a player isn’t about cashing out before impending doom. Tylor Megill fits the bill. I don’t expect him to crash and burn. However, the young righty’s underlying numbers and pitch mix are very similar to his 2021 output. Ultimately, I expect him to split the difference between his 4.52 ERA in 2021 and 2.35 ERA through four starts in 2022. One pitcher who immediately came to mind as a target in return for Megill was teammate Carlos Carrasco. ”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for naming their trade candidates. Make sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice all season and check out our Leading Off Podcast every single day for quick-hitting takeaways and advice.

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