10 Burning Questions: Luis Robert, Seiya Suzuki, Alek Manoah (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

We are through the first official week of the season and looking forward to Week 2 of the fantasy season.

Every Tuesday, I’ll address 10 burning questions that I’m looking either for answers to during the week or questions that may help fantasy managers navigate the week-to-week grind of their team.

Is it Just Me, or Is There a Power Outage?

It’s not just you, actually. There have been fewer home runs so far this season, and something happened for the first time since 2018 on Sunday.

Across 14 MLB games today, there were 19 stolen bases and 15 home runs.

It’s the first day of double-digit games since April 7, 2018 to feature more stolen bases than home runs across the league.

— Jeremy Frank (@MLBRandomStats) April 18, 2022

What’s more, we’re seeing an overall decrease in home runs this season, as pointed out by Derek Carty.

MLB Home Run Rates by Year*

2018: 4.5%
2019: 5.5%
2020: 5.2%
2021: 5.0%
2022: 4.3% ????

ANNNNND we're at the point where 2022 data should be pretty stable.

(*Adjusted for weather, park, player quality, and universal DH)

— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) April 18, 2022

What does this mean? Well, Carty says we are near the point of stability, and I’d never argue with him. He’s a lot smarter than I am. But with Spring Training, perhaps we need to extend that back a little more?

I always wonder if something is going on with the ball, too. I’ll be monitoring.

Who are Some Underperforming Hitters to Buy?

In case you were wondering, it’s really, really early.

37 qualified hitters have a K% higher than 30 percent so far this season in case you were wondering if it was early in the season or not.

— Michael Waterloo (@MichaelWaterloo) April 18, 2022

One thing that I like to look at in the season is wOBA when looking to find a hitter’s value. Since it’s early, it’s hard to trust the batted-ball data, but we can see who has been lucky or unlucky so far.

Here are the players with the highest gap between their actual wOBA and xwOBA:

So fear not, Kyle Tucker (OF – HOU) and Luis Robert (OF – CWS) managers. Better times are ahead. Jesse Winker (OF – SEA), Christian Walker (1B – ARI), and Tommy Pham (OF – CIN) – of course, he’s on here – are players you can get a lot cheaper than Tucker and Robert, though.

Who are Some Overperforming Hitters You’re Selling?

Like I did above, I looked at some hitters who have the biggest margin in the opposite direction, too, to help show some hitters who are performing a little better than they should be right now.

Ah, yes. This list makes sense. But to be fair, there are some damn good players on this list. But whenever Eric Hosmer (1B – SD) and Owen Miller (1B,2B – CLE) are in the top eight, it’s safe to assume it’s an overperforming list.

I’m not selling all of these guys, as I’m buying the obvious studs and the hot starts of guys like Seiya Suzuki (OF – CHC) and Brandon Belt (1B – SF).

What Changes are you Buying?

There are a few, really. Jesus Luzardo (SP,RP – MIA) comes to mind as a player who has definitive change that we’ve seen so far. Of course, three starts is the mark of where things stabilize (see Alek Manoah’s (SP – TOR) changeup throughout two games) but Luzardo has seen spikes in his velocity, pitch usage, and pitch shape. He’s someone I’m all in on as a breakout. I hope Starling Marte (OF – NYM) was worth it, Oakland.

On the hitting side, while he hasn’t played every day, I’m liking the changes that we’ve seen with Alec Bohm (3B – PHI). It’s only 17 plate appearances, but Bohm has a 17.6% walk rate and hasn’t struck out yet. What’s more, for someone who constantly pounded the ball into the ground, Bohm lowered his GB% from 52.7 last year to 35.7 this year. Small sample? Yes. But it’s also nice to see the change in launch angle for Bohhm from 5.6 to 13.9 percent.

Who are Some Players Rostered in 50% of Leagues or Fewer I Should Target?

Here are 10 hitters and pitchers who you should add to your watchlist that are available in 21-50% of leagues (using Yahoo rostership numbers).

Hitters:

Pitchers:

What About 20%?

Like above, here are 10 hitters and pitchers rostered in 20% of Yahoo leagues or fewer who should be on your deep-league radar.

Hitters:

Pitchers:

Any Prospects That You’re Buying?

I am! There are the usual suspects, of course, but here are a few names of some early standouts that I’m getting my hands on where I can.

The first-year shortstops (Kahlil Watson (SS – MIA), Jordan Walker (3B – STL), Brady House (SS – WSH), Marcelo Mayer (SS – BOS)) are all hitting and all look fantastic.
The early returns on Ricky Tiedemann (SP – TOR) look great for Toronto. He’s a fast riser.
Eury Perez (SP – MIA), of course. Looks like he belongs in Double-A as a 19-year-old.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B – MIN) is off to a red-hot start for the Twins organization.
Can I interest you in Ceddanne Rafaela (CF – BOS), who is the latest obsession for prospect Twitter? He’s slashing .395/.422/.861 with five home runs, four steals, and 11 RBIs in nine games.
A couple of deep arms that I like are David Festa for the Twins, Sandro Bargallo for the Marlins, and Max Castillo for the Blue Jays.

Who Has You Concerned?

I pretty much don’t worry about anyone early on who I wasn’t worried about in Spring Training. But a few players I’m slightly concerned about are:

Freddy Peralta (SP – MIL): I’m still in on him as a top-20 pitcher but the start of his season is quite concerning.
Patrick Corbin (SP – WSH): He was a spring training darling who has been terrible. Don’t roster him.
Keston Hiura (1B – MIL): Small sample, yes, but he looks like the player we’ve seen over the last couple of years.
Alejandro Kirk (C – TOR): No Danny Jansen (C -TOR) has opened up full-time playing time for Kirk, but aside from a superb walk rate, he hasn’t capitalized on it yet. They have Gabriel Moreno (C – TOR) biding his time in Triple-A, so the clock is ticking on Kirk.

Who Should I Stream Against?

I’ll be looking at wRC+ and wOBA throughout the year for teams to stream against, but right now the data is kind of pointless. Cleveland is a top-three team in wOBA right now, but as we saw above, they have a couple of overperforming players.

Teams I’m targeting right now who are striking out a ton are Minnesota, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Oakland. The top five teams who have struck out the fewest this year are St. Louis, Kansas City, the Chicago White Sox, the New York Mets, and Texas.

How High Should Seiya Suzuki Be Ranked?

I was high on Suzuki entering the season. I had him as a top 120 player. This is 100% confirmation bias, but maybe I was too low?

Among outfielders in standard leagues, Suzuki is No. 2 behind only Starling Marte. Would I rank him there? No, of course not. Here are the outfielders I would for sure rank ahead of him moving forward:

Full stop. Is Suzuki a top-12 outfielder? I’d have to really, really break it down, but he’s in that discussion. Right now, I’d have him top 20 and be OK with that. He is for real, folx.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.

Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.

MLB Sleepers Streamers Weekly Advice Kyle Tucker Luis Robert Jesse Winker Christian Walker Tommy Pham Eric Hosmer Owen Miller Seiya Suzuki Brandon Belt Jesus Luzardo Alek Manoah’s Starling Marte Alec Bohm Randal Grichuk Jeremy Pena Ramon Laureano Kolten Wong Merrill Kelly Jake Diekman Josiah Gray Matt Brash Nick Lodolo Anthony Santander Jorge Mateo Brad Miller Joc Pederson David Peralta Miles Mikolas Reid Detmers Justin Steele Paul Blackburn Andres Munoz Kahlil Watson Jordan Walker Brady House Marcelo Mayer Ricky Tiedemann Eury Perez Christian Encarnacion-Strand Ceddanne Rafaela Freddy Peralta Patrick Corbin Keston Hiura Alejandro Kirk Danny Jansen Gabriel Moreno Juan Soto Mookie Betts Bryce Harper Yordan Alvarez George Springer Aaron Judge Mike Trout Ronald Acuna Jr. Nick Castellanos

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About Author

Michael Waterloo

@MichaelWaterloo

Michael Waterloo is an award-winning fantasy baseball writer with published works at The Athletic, FantasyPros and the Associated Press, among other publications. Prior to launching his fantasy career in 2011, he covered the Pittsburgh Pirates as a traveling beat writer for two years at Pittsburgh Sporting News. He finished as a top-25 most accurate fantasy baseball analyst in 2018, his third straight year rising in the rankings. Michael loves baseball analysis, analytics, his dogs, beer and, of course, his wife.