The WR position has been shaken up a lot from the wild NFL free agency period we witnessed. Now that we have a moment to catch our breath before the 2022 NFL Draft’s deep WR class stirs the pot further, it’s the perfect time to take a look at some early best ball rankings and see who’s moved up and down them the most. Fortunately, our featured pundits are here to do just that. Read on to see which receivers they’re much higher or lower on in best-ball formats.
Q1. Which WR has risen up your best ball rankings the most?
D.J. Moore (CAR)
“I want D.J. Moore in best ball. Granted, I’ve always wanted Moore, but the fact that more people don’t seem to recognize the 24-year-old’s upside is astounding. Only five players in NFL history have more receiving yards than Moore (4,313) has before turning 25: Randy Moss (5,396), Mike Evans (4,579), Larry Fitzgerald (4,544), DeAndre Hopkins (4,487) and Odell Beckham Jr. (4,424). Of all NFL wide receivers, he’s the only one with 1,200-plus yards from scrimmage in each of the past three seasons — and yet he’s coming off objectively his worst season in years (68.1 yards receiving per game, 7.1 yards per target, four touchdowns in 17 games). Moore is likely to enjoy positive regression in 2022: He has 75.0 yards receiving per game and 8.5 yards per target over the past three years, and four touchdowns are his absolute floor given his yardage production. His quarterback situation isn’t likely to get any worse than what he had last year with Sam Darnold and Cam Newton, and it could improve dramatically if the Panthers trade for a veteran or take a passer in Round 1 of the draft.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)
Tim Patrick (DEN)
“Tim Patrick has never been appealing in best ball. Quietly one of the more underrated fantasy receivers, he has typically been outshined by the flashier Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. With mediocre QB play, Patrick has held his own in terms of production, leading the WR corps in fantasy points in each of the last two years regardless of who is under center. Now this team has one of the most historically efficient QBs in Russell Wilson, who had an impressive 6.3% touchdown percentage last season. Patrick may not have the consistency of the other two receivers, but in best ball, I view him as the new Tyler Lockett to the higher-drafted D.K. Metcalf (aka Sutton and Jeudy) and should be a fine WR4/5 on your team.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
Allen Lazard (GB)
“It’s Packers WR Allen Lazard for me. He’s currently the half-PPR WR60, but the Green and Gold lost Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Adams leaves 169 vacated targets and MVS leaves 55 (over 11 games). Even if the Packers bring in a veteran or multiple talented rookie WRs, Aaron Rodgers is a fickle god that prefers known commodities. Lazard is the man to target and he’s currently my WR38, if only because of the target potential.”
– Tim Metzler (FantasyPros)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC)
“It has to be JuJu Smith-Schuster. He goes from playing with the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger to playing with Patrick Mahomes in an Andy Reid-designed offense. That alone would have warranted a big bump for JuJu, but then the Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill. Yes, the Chiefs are probably going to draft a speedy wide receiver, but a rookie isn’t going to command as many targets as Hill would have, and JuJu is going to absorb some of that target spillover. I had Smith-Schuster ranked as a WR4 going into free agency, and now he’s a high-end WR3.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Rondale Moore (ARI)
“Rondale Moore has been the apple of my eye all offseason. I keep pushing him up my rankings because the opportunity in front of him is immense. He could easily compete with Zach Ertz weekly for targets behind DeAndre Hopkins. We know the talent is present in Moore. All he needs is volume. He’s a high-end WR4 with WR2 upside weekly.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Q2. Which WR has fallen in your best ball rankings the most?
Deebo Samuel (SF)
“I like Deebo Samuel. His talent is unquestioned, but he had career-high marks last year with 7.6 targets, 3.7 carries, 110.6 yards, 0.88 touchdowns per game and 11.6 yards per target. This year, he could experience negative regression in both opportunity and efficiency, especially with a new starting quarterback in Trey Lance. It’s not that Samuel is destined never again to have success comparable to that of 2021, but the odds of him performing worse in 2022 and beyond are much higher than his odds of performing better.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)
Tyreek Hill (MIA)
“From best ball superstar to my fallen star, I will not be drafting Tyreek Hill this season. To be clear, this has nothing to do with his previous off-field charges or the rumors that Tua Tagovailoa can’t throw deep. Even on a new team, he will most likely be drafted as a top-five best ball WR, and I struggle to see the ceiling. Last season, the Dolphins had the seventh-lowest percent of targets to the WR position, despite Jaylen Waddle having the 10th-most targets at the position. With super athletes Mike Gesicki and Waddle, the team also added dynamic talent and speed to the backfield, plus Mike McDaniel is bringing over Kyle Shanahan’s system. All this is to say that there will be questionable target volume in this offense, and I am doubtful that Hill will see the usage necessary to have multiple week-winning performances. As a result, he is outside of my WR1 ranks in best ball.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
“I don’t know how anyone can say someone other than Jaylen Waddle. He’s currently the WR14 in half-PPR rankings but I can’t stand him there. He was in my top-10 WRs prior to free agency. With the team adding Tyreek Hill, I feel like Waddle’s target ceiling is capped. He finished 2021 as the WR17 (140 targets and 9.8 yards per reception). Tua Tagovailoa is 100% not the man you want throwing to your early-round draft picks. Waddle is my WR24, but he could fall farther as the offseason drudges on.”
– Tim Metzler (FantasyPros)
Adam Thielen (MIN)
“The Adam Thielen touchdown train has to end sometime, right? While Thielen has been a touchdown magnet (30 receiving touchdowns over the last three seasons) since 2019, last year we saw his peripheral efficiency dip. In 2021 he finished with 1.63 yards per route run (per PFF) which was his lowest mark since 2015. While the touchdowns might remain in 2022, the rest of his numbers could decline. Thielen has fallen to the realm of being a back-end WR3, and he could continue to tumble. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Hunter Renfrow (LV)
“Hunter Renfrow would have been a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 in my rankings if not for the Davante Adams trade. With Adams soaking up targets from his former Fresno State teammate Derek Carr, Renfrow won’t continue to see a steady 7-10 targets a game, as he did for most of the 2021 season. The best thing about Renfrow for fantasy last year was his sturdy weekly floor, and the arrival of Adams lowers that floor.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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