On Sunday, the Boston Red Sox made their first splashy move of the post-lockout free agency period, agreeing to terms on a six-year, $140 million deal with former Rockies shortstop Trevor Story. The deal includes an opt-out clause after four years, but Story exercising that opt-out triggers a Red Sox option that would allow them to keep him for a seventh year at $25 million. If the opt-out and option are both exercised, this becomes a seven-year, $160 million agreement.
What does Story’s signing mean for the veteran shortstop? Mike Maher and Chris Clegg are here to break down the fantasy baseball implications of the deal.
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If you are going to leave Coors Field behind, there are worse landing spots than Fenway Park. While the Green Monster and a 420-foot center field will take away some home runs, the Monster also hands out its fair share of home runs and doubles that would be outs in other ballparks. Playing the majority of your road games in Camden Yards, Yankee Stadium, Tropicana Field, and Rogers Centre doesn’t hurt, either.
2021 was a strange season for Trevor Story. He batted .249 with 11 home runs in the first half and .253 with 13 home runs in the second half, but he did finish stronger in August and September after hitting .188 in July. His batting average that had hovered around the .290 mark for three seasons in a row ended up at .251 when the dust settled, and his 24 home runs were well shy of the mid-30s numbers he put up during his last two full seasons in 2018 and 2019.
The elephant in the room is that he batted .203 on the road and .296 at home last season and is a career .303 hitter at home against .241 on the road. The Coors Field concerns are real. But as we said above, there are worse landing spots. He is in Boston in a hitter-friendly environment with a deep lineup. This isn’t as much of a concern as it would be if Story ended up in Oakland or Miami.
There’s another benefit to Story landing in Boston for fantasy managers: dual eligibility. Story is reportedly going to play second base for the Red Sox with the incumbent Xander Bogaerts sticking at shortstop. That means Story will start the season eligible only at shortstop but should quickly add second base eligibility. For managers in dynasty leagues, Bogaerts has an opt-out in his contract after this season that he is almost guaranteed to exercise. If he leaves Boston, Story could be back at shortstop as early as 2023.
One fantasy-relevant area where I am concerned is stolen bases. Story stole 20 bases last season, and most projections had him stealing 20 or more in 2022. But the Red Sox are not a team that runs very often. Consider this: catcher Christian Vazquez led the 2021 Red Sox in stolen bases with eight. Story is still going to steal some bases, but he may not steal as many as he would have if he landed somewhere else. I think we’re looking at 12-15 stolen bases instead of the 20+ we had penciled in for him.
– Mike Maher
Trevor Story’s move to Boston is a nice boost for his fantasy value. Of any home park he could have chosen, Fenway may provide as much value to Story as Coors Field does. Surprisingly, over the last three seasons, Fenway Park has produced a higher BABIP than Coors(.328 to .326).
Story will likely pepper balls off the Green Monster which will give him a boost in batting average plus slugging.
Many want to suggest that Story will see home run regression from park factors alone. But, it is worth noting that in 2021 Story had an average pulled fly ball distance of 354 at Coors and 378 on the road. For the last three seasons that number sits at 367 at Coors and 370 on the road. Story provides plenty of distance to hit those fly balls over the Green Monster.
The lineup context is a huge improvement, and Story likely slots into one of the top several spots. They did not sign him to hit fifth or lower. Story is slated to score a huge chunk of runs and should easily drive in 100 or more.
Stolen bases are the only part of Story’s game I’m slightly concerned about. The improved lineup context means less of a need for Story to steal to manufacture runs. Boston steals less in general so expect a downtick in stolen bases for Story.
In general, the move to Boston for Story is a huge boost in value. Draft accordingly with the expectation he will soon have 2B/SS eligibility.
– Chris Clegg
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