While record books track pitchers’ wins and losses over their careers, their quality starts are a telling sign of their ability to get batters out efficiently. Quality starts do not factor in the outcome of the game, only whether or not the pitcher performed well enough to meet the following requirements: six innings pitched with no more than three runs allowed.
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In leagues that value quality starts over wins, there are obvious ramifications. Middle relievers that do not factor into saves or holds lose significant value. They can often pick up wins when a starter gets pulled early. QS leagues also make streaming incredibly important. Finding good matchups for pitchers playing against bad offenses is a vital strategy for fantasy managers to adopt in those leagues.
One problem for QS leagues is that the quality start is a dying statistic. With pitchers throwing harder than ever, managers and general managers have been much more watchful over their pitchers, which has led to the growing trend of having innings limits on them. Another trend from the last few years is the use of an opener that starts the game, followed by a starter or long reliever that pitches 4-5 innings. Managers are also using six-man rotations to limit the innings for their starters.
Because of these trends, quality starts have trended down since 2014. My podcast co-host Matt Kirk pulled this data from 2014-2019.
The amount of QS decreased by 3-4% each year. In 2021, 32% of starts were quality starts, which is a 5% decline from 2019. The shortened season in 2020 may have influenced this data; however, it still reflects the growing trends that are limiting quality starts.
In leagues where quality starts are valued, finding pitchers who consistently go deep into games is paramount, but the number of pitchers who do that is decreasing.
The number of pitchers with 10 or more QS in a season decreased from 95 in 2017 to 67 in 2021. The number of pitchers with 15 or more QS decreased from 52 in 2017 to 30 in 2021. The amount of pitchers with 20 or more QS has decreased from 16 in 2017 to 8 in 2021.
No pitchers have had 20 or more QS each of the last four full seasons; however, a few had 15 or more in each of the last four full seasons. Those pitchers are Max Scherzer (SP - NYM), Gerrit Cole (SP - NYY), and Zack Greinke (SP - FA). Several players have met this mark the last three seasons including Zack Wheeler (SP - NYM), Charlie Morton (SP - ATL), Kyle Hendricks (SP - CHC), Lucas Giolito (SP - CWS), and Jose Berrios (SP - TOR). There are several pitchers whose QS per season are trending up. Here are a few to consider outside of the top 100 picks using NFBC ADP.
In 2018, DeSclafani had five QS, but that number was 15 in 2021. He had the best ERA of his career last season, his first in San Francisco. A change in pitch selection - fewer fastballs and curveballs, and more sliders and changeups - definitely had something to do with his improvements. Another season with the Giants pitching coaches will benefit DeSclafani and should lead to another improvement in quality starts.
Mahle has improved greatly since his full-time call-up in 2018. He increased his K/9 rate in each of his full major league seasons, while also lowering his HR/9 rate (an important stat when pitching in Cincinnati). Adding a sinker the last three years lines up directly with a decline in barrel and hard-hit rates over those seasons. He also increased his innings pitched in the last three full seasons. These are all trends that show an improving pitcher, and one that should continue to see gains in quality starts.
Others to consider: Walker Buehler (SP - LAD), Sandy Alcantara (SP - MIA), Frankie Montas (SP - OAK), Brandon Woodruff (SP - MIL), Max Fried (SP - ATL), Chris Bassitt (SP - OAK), Yu Darvish (SP - SD), Yusei Kikuchi (SP - FA), Freddy Peralta (SP - MIL), Pablo Lopez (SP - MIA)
There are also many players whose quality starts are trending down. Here are a few players to avoid in QS leagues.
In 2018, Nola was tied for third in quality starts. No, the Phillies were not particularly good that year. They finished that season with an 80-82 record, but Nola was dominant. He threw 212.1 innings, a personal record for him, and finished with a 2.37 ERA. He did also have a .251 BABIP, a LOB% that was 8.5% higher than his career average, and a HR/FB rate under the MLB average. Since that season, and not counting 2020, his amount of QS declined each year, down to 11 in 2021 (when the Phillies finished 82-80 and he threw 180.2 innings). While his QS numbers should bounce back some, his range of outcomes is too wide, and fantasy managers in QS leagues should factor this in accordingly for this season.
Similar to Nola, Snell has seen a decrease in QS each year from 2018, not counting 2020. He finished with seven QS in 2021, despite pitching 21.2 more innings than in 2019 when he had 10 QS. Each year, Snell's 2018 looks more like an outlier. He had 19 QS in 180.2 IP, his only season of more than 129.1 IP. Snell can get batters out - he has the 10th best K/9 rate in baseball since 2018 - but struggles to go deep into games. This is something fantasy managers must consider when drafting him.
Others to fade: Patrick Corbin (SP - WAS), Kyle Freeland (SP - COL), Clayton Kershaw (SP - FA), Madison Bumgarner (SP - ARI), Dallas Keuchel (SP - CWS), Mike Minor (SP - KC), Steven Matz (SP - STL), Chris Paddack (SP - SD), Matt Boyd (SP - FA), Domingo German (SP - NYY), Zach Davies (SP - FA), Carlos Carrasco (SP - NYM), Jake Odorizzi (SP - HOU)
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