Power + Stolen Base Cheat Sheat for the First 13 Rounds (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

I was going to write all these gushy phrases about power and speed combinations, but it sounded like a commercial for an SUV. Do you really need to be convinced? After the draft, who doesn’t want their entire team to feel like a 30/10 player. That’s what it takes to compete in my league with nine hitting slots: 270 homers and 90 steals. It’s best to aim for 300 homers and 100 stolen bases. Simple math.

For draft day, here are 30/10 guys for every round through 13, followed by a profile of the round. Some will reach the Steamer projections listed below, but I’m hoping others outperform, especially in the middle rounds.

In an attempt to “own” the stolen base category, managers draft Trea Turner or Adalberto Mondesi, Starling Marte or Whit Merrifield, but we rarely approach home runs this way. It is necessary to spread out the power. But guess what? This is possible for speed, too (even if the power-speedster is harder to find). For this strategy, the ideal player in every slot is a 30/10 guy (or close). It limits the risk of relying on one guy and increases your chances across the board.

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Round 1

If you don’t get a 30/10 guy in the first round, it’s probably because you drafted Vlad Guerrero Jr. or a pitcher. Also, how should you feel if you have a lower draft position? Answer: comfortable. Ramirez, Harper and Betts are excellent picks for our strategy. If you get Tatis, super! He pummeled 40 HR last year and stole 25 bags. Turner doesn’t usually hit as many homers. Steamer pegs him for 25. Bo Bichette skimmed the surface with 29 homers (in several minor league ballparks). Acuna may not play a whole season, and Trout comes with health concerns (though I rate him higher). Ah, but Ramirez, Harper and Betts have reached the promised land (30/10) multiple times (almost three times for each). If you worry about scarcity at third base, you could defend drafting Ramirez sooner.

Round 2

If Ohtani reaches his Steamer projections, he should probably be in the first round. It’s the extra pitching workload that might scare people. For my money, this is the Albies Round. Can he repeat the 30 homers from 2021? I say take the gamble. Second base seems like a pain. If you didn’t get Turner, grab Ozzie. If you did get Turner, the same logic about third basemen applies. Draft Machado. Reliable power/speed combinations at the hot corner decrease exponentially after this round.

Round 3

I prefer Hernandez, especially in Toronto’s lineup. If I don’t get him, I may resort to a pitcher and continue to the next round. Semien’s number of at-bats, the lineup and the small parks all contributed to his success. Expect regression, but even regression leaves you with a solid power/speed guy, especially with the multi-position eligibility. Note that Teo’s power output and patience continue to improve. He’s 29, and it’s possible he hasn’t reached his ceiling.

Round 4

Story may need to prove himself outside John Denver-land. While I believe in Mullins, I might wait another year. He’s got the skills, but with nearly 700 plate appearances last year, can we rely on a repeat of the volume? Lindor is a true-blue bounce-back candidate, and I’d love a piece of the Mets’ lineup. We’re running low on corner infielders who’ll swipe bases, so Goldschmidt is valuable.

Round 5

Things get dicey with the power/speed strategy in this round.

• Option 1: Take anyone from the previous round who falls here.
• Option 2: Grab Realmuto; he’ll never give you 30 homers, but speed from the catcher slot is money.
• Option 3: Take a chance on Byron Buxton.
• Option 4: Grab a pitcher and move to the next round

Round 6

Tyler O’Neill is my target at ADP 60-72. Sure, his average will regress, but he gets on base, he’s fast, and look at Steamer’s power numbers! If you drafted Realmuto in the previous round, those seven extra homers bring Realmuto’s projected 23 to an even 30.

Round 7

Will these guys hit 30 homers? They did last year. They’re similar, but Polanco’s K% in 2021 was 18.3% and Baez’s was 33.6%. This wouldn’t stop me from drafting Baez. He beats the house annually. Still, I think Polanco’s average will be higher. He hits the ball in the air more, and here’s another hint: The launch angle has become elite.

Round 8

When many fans think of Kris Bryant, they visualize a 2016 groundball play that ended a World Series drought. He hit 31 homers in 2019 and stole 10 bases in 2021. Can he put these numbers together this year? He gets on base. His career OBP is .376, so while you might think he can’t repeat the steals, the opportunity exists. Bet on the body of work. He has a career OPS of .880. That’s better than Paul Goldschmidt or Yordan Alvarez‘s OPS in 2021. I can make similar points about Bellinger, except he’s four years younger than Bryant and had an injury-laden season. He struggled mightily in 2021, but he’s got a one-year contract on a good ballclub. Maybe he’s got something to prove.

Round 9

Bryan Reynolds is still undervalued. I can only assume that people don’t like to draft Pirates because the lineup is HAAAAARD to trust!

Pirate jokes aside, if you throw out 2020, Reynolds is improving in every important category. He cut his GB% by nearly 10%. The Barrel % is up. He cut his K%, increased his BB%. I think he could hit 30 or more homers. Jonathan India is a must-buy too. He might be better than Reynolds because the stolen bases will come. If you think he can’t reach 30 homers, consider that he only hit six homers in the first half before crushing more than double that number in the second half.

Round 10

I’d prioritize Dansby Swanson here. He needs the volume to reach the lofty numbers from 2021, where he managed 27/9. His health is good. He’s 28. He found more consistency against lefties. As I said in my article comparing players from vastly different ADP’s, he might match Marcus Semien‘s output. On the other hand, Meadows has struggled against lefties. This is worrisome, but he’s young and healthy too, and he started to make more contact as the season progressed.

Round 11

Take a look at Adames’ barrel percentage from 2018-2021: 7%, 8%, 10%, and 11%. His splits are even, and his OBP went up significantly in the second half. With newfound comfort in Milwaukee, he’s a mid-round jackpot.

Round 12

Here’s what’s interesting about Gurriel. He had an elite barrel rate in 2020, hitting 11 home runs in 224 plate appearances. Then he faded in the first half of 2021. Knee issues, apparently. In the second half of 2021, the barrel rate returned and he was the same guy as 2020.

Round 13 or later

If you forget the ADP and focus on YOUR needs, these guys are options to finish your draft. With an ADP at 210, Ian Happ could be a real value in season-long roto. Avisail Garcia was 29/8, and his ADP is 184. Eddie Rosario can bounce back. He’s only 30 years old, and his ADP is 178. Don’t scoff at the possibilities. Stick to the 30/10 plan, and you can get bragging rights for power/speed stability.

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Joshua Thusat is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joshua, check out his archive and follow him @thelettersjosh.