There aren’t many worse feelings in fantasy baseball drafts than when you get sniped on one of your guys. Further, it only gets worse if they perform up to your preseason expectations. Thus, sometimes it behooves you to reach for players. The following hitters I suggest going out of your way to draft. Thankfully, only one has a top-100 average draft position (ADP). So, the hitters I recommend reaching for are getting picked in the most volatile portions of the draft anyway.
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Byron Buxton (OF – MIN): 59.0 ADP/50.3 ECR
It wasn’t the smoothest transition for Byron Buxton from being the top prospect in baseball to an impactful player in real life and fantasy. However, he’s more than arrived. Last year, injuries were the only bugaboo for a full-blown breakout.
According to FanGraphs, in just 254 plate appearances, Buxton set a new single-season high for homers with 19, adding nine stolen bases, striking out in under 25.0% of his plate appearances for the second time in the previous three years, and hitting for a new career-high .306 batting average. In addition, Buxton’s abbreviated 2021 was his third straight season with a wRC+ above 110.
Since 2019, in 684 plate appearances, Buxton has ripped 42 homers, stolen 25 bases in 30 attempts, struck out in a palatable 24.3% of his plate appearances, leading to a .277/.321/.575 triple slash. Additionally, Buxton was a Statcast dreamboat last year, evidenced by his appearance in my Advanced Stats Leaderboard series in Barrel Percentage, Fly Ball and Line Drive Exit Velocity, and Sprint Speed.
As a result, Buxton is the total package. He has the tools and has translated them to the field in the previous three injury-hampered seasons. Therefore, it’s not an exaggeration to say that if he stays healthy, he could be a first-round pick at this time next year. So, I won’t let him fall out of the fourth round.
Jesse Winker (OF – SEA): 101.8 ADP/91.3 ECR
First, let me address the obvious. Unfortunately, the trade from the Reds to the Mariners is a massive downgrade in home ballparks for Jesse Winker. Nevertheless, Winker has the top-shelf hitting skills to play in any park.
The left-handed-hitting outfielder set new career-highs in homers (24), runs (77), RBI (71), batting average (.305), slugging (.556), and wRC+ (148) last year. Even with excellent plate discipline (10.9 BB%) and plus power (.251 ISO), Winker struck out in only 15.5% of his plate appearances. Moreover, his stellar .305 batting average and .556 slugging weren’t wildly out of line with his .295 expected average and .524 expected slugging.
Promisingly, Winker’s bat has played at an elite level on the road since 2020. According to FanGraphs’ splits tool, in 343 plate appearances on the road since 2020, Winker has hit 15 homers with a .303/.399/.527 slash, .224 ISO, and 148 wRC+. So, while a move from hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park to pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park isn’t ideal, I’m still buying Winker as a top-100 player.
Eugenio Suarez (3B/SS – SEA): 188.6 ADP/191.0 ECR
Eugenio Suarez was involved in the same trade as Winker, meaning the same ballpark factor downgrade saddles him. In addition, Suarez was dreadful last year, necessitating the Reds to include Winker in the deal for the Mariners to eat his contract. That sounds like a heck of an endorsement for drafting him in fantasy baseball leagues, right?
Admittedly, Suarez has fallen in my rankings since the trade. However, I still like him more than his ADP and expert consensus ranking (ECR). Suarez is 30 years old and had a terrific season as recently as 2019 when he hit 49 homers with 87 runs, 103 RBI, three stolen bases, and a .271 batting average. Sadly, he had shoulder surgery before the 2020 season and has hit only .199 in 805 plate appearances post-surgery. However, he has had a .240 ISO and mashed 46 taters. The batting average has obviously been unsightly, but the surgery hasn’t robbed him of his power.
Is it possible Suarez has been adjusting since surgery? Maybe. The cost is cheap to see if his approach changes late in the season, leading to eye-popping numbers starting in September carrying over to 2022. In his final 87 plate appearances last year, Suarez swatted eight homers with a 12.6 BB%, 25.3 K%, .438 ISO, and .370/.460/.808 line. Additionally, Suarez’s batted-ball data was mouthwatering, including a 19.2 Barrel%, 51.9 HardHit%, 21.4-degree launch angle, and 92.7 mph exit velocity. Suarez’s September/October exit velocity would have ranked 16th out of 132 qualified hitters over the whole year, to put that mark in perspective.
The way Suarez tore the cover off the baseball to close out 2021 would have played in any ballpark. Thus, I’ll gleefully spend a top-175 pick, hoping he’s back on track. Further, I expect his ADP to slide in Seattle. So, you might be able to take him even later in upcoming drafts. Regardless, I want to leave drafts with Suarez on the cheap because it’s rare to get someone Suarez’s age only a year and partial season from an elite season so late in drafts.
Brandon Belt (1B – SF): 249.4 ADP/194.7 ECR
I immediately feel validated suggesting reaching for Brandon Belt in fantasy baseball drafts by his roughly 55-pick discrepancy in ADP and ECR. Basically, I’m not on an island as a fantasy pundit who believes Belt is grossly undervalued.
San Francisco’s new coaching regime that joined Gabe Kapler when he took over as the manager for the Giants in 2020 has had remarkable success coaxing great hitting results out of veterans (Belt, Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford, and Darin Ruf). The widespread success among veterans alleviates concerns about Belt’s superb previous two years being a fluke. So instead, I’m buying Belt’s back-to-back career highs for wRC+ as legitimate.
In 560 plate appearances since 2020, Belt has hit 38 homers with 90 runs, 89 RBI, three stolen bases, a 13.9 BB%, 24.8 K%, .310 ISO, .285/.393/.595 slash, 21.3-degree launch angle, 17.0 Barrel%, and 45.5 HardHit%. Finally, I’m unwilling to concede he’s a platoon-only hitter.
Last year, the left-handed-hitting Belt hit .246/.373/.459 with a 14.7 BB%, 20.0 K%, .213 ISO, and 129 wRC+ against lefties. In addition, his career-low 62 wRC+ against southpaws in 32 plate appearances in 2020 was largely influenced by an unsustainable career-low .125 BABIP against them. Sure, Kapler will probably sit Belt against some (maybe even many) lefties. However, his 129 wRC+ in same-handed matchups in 2021 provide hope for Belt playing against southpaws semi-regularly. Nonetheless, even in a strict platoon, Belt is worth a top-200 pick commensurate with his ECR.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
