It’s a good practice to have players you’re avoiding near their average draft position (ADP). The following players won’t necessarily be complete busts. However, I expect them to underperform their ADP and expert consensus ranking (ECR), making them players I’m fading anywhere near either mark.
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Mookie Betts (OF – LAD): 13.0 ADP/13.1 ECR
Mookie Betts was awesome in 2020. However, a hip injury and time on the injured list resulted in an underwhelming campaign by his lofty standards. According to our Value-Based Rankings, Betts was the 65th-ranked hitter in 2021. Betts reportedly avoided hip surgery in the offseason, but I’m not sure if his rest and rehab approach should be reassuring or concerning.
Nevertheless, Betts’ hip aside, I’m alarmed by his batted-ball data. According to FanGraphs, his 90.3 mph exit velocity was his lowest since 2017, and his 107.9 maximum exit velocity was the lowest mark in his career. Moreover, his expected stats in 2020 didn’t align with his gaudy actual batting average and slugging percentage (.292 versus .281 and .562 compared to .481). Further, his .264 batting average and .443 slugging percentage outpaced his .262 xBA and .443 xSLG.
Finally, I question his ability to move the needle in stolen bases in 2022. First, why should the Dodgers overtax Betts’ hip, even if rest and rehab did the trick? Second, he was caught stealing on five of 15 attempts in 2021, and he stole only 16 bases in 19 attempts in the prior full year (2019). Yes, he stole 10 bases in 12 attempts in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Still, even at that pace, it’s well short of his days running wild in 2015 through 2018.
As a result, I can’t get on board with Betts’ end of the first or top of the second-round ADP and ECR. I have him ranked as an end of the second-round option, but it’s unlikely he’ll slide that far in most competitive leagues.
J.T. Realmuto (C – PHI): 58.4 ADP/89.0 ECR
Hooray! Clearly, I’m not on an island. Glance up at the 31-pick disparity between J.T. Realmuto‘s ADP and his ECR. Funny enough, I’m actually a few picks higher on Realmuto than the ECR. Nonetheless, his ADP is gross.
Realmuto is the second catcher going off the board in fantasy drafts behind only Salvador Perez. However, he’s my third-ranked catcher behind Perez and Will Smith. Beyond position scarcity almost certainly influencing his ADP, I suspect his 13 stolen bases are grossly overvalued. Last season, the veteran backstop’s 13 stolen bases were a career-high, and they matched his 13 stolen bases in 15 attempts in 2019 and 2020 combined (192 games and 711 plate appearances). Further, Realmuto’s reached double-digit stolen bases just one other time, swiping 12 bases in 16 attempts in 2016. So, I expect Realmuto’s stolen bases to slip back under double-digits in 2022.
Therefore, there’s more pressure on the rest of his stat line, and his statistical profile has glaring red flags. The most jarring number has been Realmuto’s surge in strikeout rate. No, he won’t be confused with the most prominent strikeout hitters in The Show. Still, from 2014 through 2019, he had an 18.6 K%. Since 2020, he has had a 24.2 K%.
Unsurprisingly, Realmuto’s batting average has dipped with the sizable uptick in strikeouts. He hit .278 from 2014 through 2019 before sinking to .263 the previous two years. Also, Realmuto’s overperformed his .246 xBA in 2020 and .253 xBA in 2020 and 2021. Additionally, Realmuto’s ISO has nudged up from .174 to only .190. Add it all up, and I can’t imagine spending a top-75 pick on him, let alone the top-60 choice that aligns with his ADP.
Alex Bregman (3B – HOU): 69.2 ADP/70.0 ECR
There was a time only a few years ago when Alex Bregman was a fantasy baseball superstar. According to FanGraphs, from 2018 through 2019, in 1,395 plate appearances, Bregman hit 72 homers, stole 15 bases, and slashed .291/.409/.561. But, of course, Bregman’s gaudy statistics were accumulated before their sign-stealing scandal came to light.
Was Bregman’s production entirely the product of cheating? It probably wasn’t. However, his expected stats using Statcast’s batted-ball data have always been markedly worse than his surface stats. For instance, his highest expected batting average and expected slugging percentage in his career were his .269 xBA and .464 xSLG in 2018.
Since the Astros were busted, Bregman’s numbers have tanked. In 580 plate appearances since 2020, Bregman’s hit 18 homers with a .261/.353/.431 slash. Interestingly, his batting average and slugging percentage in the previous two years more closely resemble his expected stats. So, I view his last two years’ marks as a reasonable baseline for 2022 expectations.
Additionally, Bregman has stopped running. He has attempted and stolen one base in 133 games since 2020. Further, he attempted only six steals with five successful steals in 156 games in 2019. So, Bregman has tried to steal just seven times in his last 289 games.
Essentially, the only elements of Bregman’s game he’s kept intact the last two years are his excellent plate discipline and elite contact skills. Although, since he’s not putting a charge into the ball, his top-shelf bat-to-ball skills make him a ho-hum batting average source instead of a needle-mover. I have Bregman ranked as a fringe top-100 player, and even that feels generous.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.