While the Puerto Rico Open kicks off in Rio Grande, the second leg of the Florida PGA Tour will occur this weekend at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. 2022 began with two tournaments in Hawaii, migrated east to California from mid-January to mid-February, and will stay rooted in Florida for the next four weeks. Once again, the field is loaded with star power, offering numerous opportunities to find value while paying up for blue-chip prospects such as Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland.
My recommendations from The Honda Classic last weekend fared exceptionally well, as Sepp Straka took home the first-place trophy and winnings at just an $8,800 salary on FanDuel. Rounds six-under-par and four-under-par on Friday and Sunday led to the Austrian earning his first win in 14 events played this season. Daniel Berger was the favorite entering The Honda Classic, and he appeared on track to secure his first win of the season. However, a four-over-par final round dropped him to a fourth-place finish at seven-under-par. On the second day, Florida native Billy Horschel overcame a brutal four-over-par round to earn a T16 finish. At the same time, Louis Oosthuizen only managed one excellent round at five-under-par to achieve a T30 finish at two-over-par. Mackenzie Hughes fell to T48 with no rounds under par, and Patrick Reed was the only prospect who failed to make the cut. Overall, it was an impressive slate, and I hope it provided the foundation for you to cash lineups.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational has so many elite players competing, which adds more value on the slate to talented prospects who would be much higher in lighter fields. I’ve gathered six of the best value and high-upside prospects to target entering Thursday’s opening round in Orlando.
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Previous Winners
- 2021 – Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
- 2020 – Tyrell Hatton (-4)
- 2019 – Francesco Molinari (-12)
- 2018 – Rory McIlroy (-18)
- 2017 – Marc Leishman (-11)
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
- Greens in Regulation percentage
- Driving Distance
- Driving Accuracy
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Course Overview
Bay Hill Club & Lodge will challenge the deeply talented field in Orlando this weekend, even as a par 72. Tipping at just over 7,450 yards, Bay Hill has significant water hazards, numerous sand bunkers flanking its greens, and primary rough grown at three and a half inches. In addition, Bermudagrass covers the greens and the rough alike, which creates a fast track for putting, measuring out to over 13 feet via the Stimpmeter.
The greens themselves are challenging to reach, with long, narrow fairways littered with trees, water hazards, and directional wind patterns that add an extra obstacle. Yet, they average 7,500 square feet, which should allow players to pump their GIR percentage throughout the weekend. Four par 3s and four par 5s create plenty of opportunities for players to scramble or tank their position on the leaderboard. Precise irons and strong drivers will give players a leg-up on the field, allowing them to reach the Bermudagrass greens in fewer strokes. Accuracy is just as important, though, as the bodies of water and bunkers demand precision throughout most of the holes at Bay Hill.
Recommended Plays: DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Will Zalatoris ($9,400)
One of the most consistently undervalued players in PGA DFS is 25-year old American Will Zalatoris. He has two top-ten finishes within the last five weeks, meaning Zalatoris is entering his stride at the perfect time. His stat sheet is insane, as he ranks 18th in driving distance and is ninth in converting Greens in Regulation with a feverish 74.6 percent conversion rate. But, it doesn’t stop there. Zalatoris is first in strokes gained approaching the green and first in strokes gained tee-to-green. He’s 25th in strokes gained tee-to-green as well. This shows how elite Zalatoris is with his irons, which will create a massive advantage at Bay Hill. He earned a T10 finish at this event a year ago, so adding him at under $9,500 on DraftKings is a great value. He’s seventh in salary pricing, but you won’t regret rostering this rising star.
Marc Leishman ($9,100)
Dating back to 2017, which was the year he won, Aussie Marc Leishman has managed additional finishes of T7, T23, and second before missing the cut in 2021. The 38-year old has been cooking this season, steadily finishing inside the top 25 while earning three top-ten finishes. Leishman took the week off during The Honda Classic at PGA National last weekend, so this will be his first foray in the Florida leg. If his missed cut scares you, be careful, considering Leishman is seventh in birdie average (4.97) and 28th in GIR percentage (72%) while hovering inside the top-15 in strokes gained putting. He’s decisive from tee to green as well, which shows why the Aussie has been so good at conquering Bay Hill. You can rest easy knowing that Leishman won’t miss the cut, as he is perfect through nine events this season. Oddsmakers also have him at +2800 to win, the tenth-highest on the slate. Plug Leishman into lineups with supreme confidence.
Max Homa ($8,700)
Max Homa is the definition of a sleeper at Bay Hill this weekend. The 31-year old California native has finishes of T14 and T10 across his last two events and is solid with his irons off-the-tee and tee-to-green. Homa is equipped with a good putter, ranking 31st in strokes gained putting (.451), and he’s also managed to pour in 4.5 birdies per round this season. Previous finishes of T10 in 2021 and T24 in 2020 at Bay Hill should pique your interest, as familiarity with a course that demands long drives, sharp irons, and strong putting. Homa started the season with a win at Fortinet, so he’s already shown his ability to win at the highest level. Take advantage of his low salary and roster a prospect with favorable +350 odds to post a T10 finish.
Recommended Plays: FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Billy Horschel ($10,500)
It’s always fun knowing that a prospect grew up playing on local courses mirroring the layout of a course like Bay Hill. Such is the case for 35-year old Billy Horschel, who flexed a T16 finish at the first event in Florida at PGA National last weekend. Horschel is playing his best golf of the season since the Farmers Insurance Open, where he earned a T11 finish, followed by a T6 at WM Phoenix Open, and most recently, his top-20 finish at The Honda Classic. Many of his metrics stand out, but a particular focus should be routed to the 67 percent driving accuracy he has maintained while also producing a blistering 72 percent GIR conversion rate. In addition, he’s another quality putter like Max Homa, and he’s ranked 22nd in strokes gained off-the-tee. There aren’t many flaws to pick apart in Horschel’s game, but he has not had an illustrious career at Bay Hill, missing the cut last season and earning finishes of T36 and T50 back in 2020 and 2019. However, he’s been playing incredibly well, so take a slight chance on the momentum Horschel has established in the last few weeks.
Russell Henley ($10,000)
32-year old American Russell Henley has seen his production slightly dip, albeit still quality, in his last two events. The Georgia native has consecutive T33 finishes but did not compete at The Honda Classic last weekend, which allows him to be fully rested as he’ll begin his first Florida event of the 2022 PGA Tour season. He was runner-up at the Sony Open in Hawaii back in January. He followed it up with a T14 finish at The American Express, so Henley has undoubtedly played quality golf since the New Year. It helps to know that he possesses the 15th-highest GIR percentage (73.7%) on Tour and a 4.81 birdie average is nothing to dismiss. He’s got a weak but accurate driver, which will get washed out with his great irons, as he ranks 12th in total strokes gained, which comprises five categories ranging from off-the-tee to approaching the green and putting. Henley has not competed at the Arnold Palmer Invitational since a T45 finish in 2017, so he is an intriguing high-value prospect who warrants serious consideration in DFS lineups.
Lanto Griffin ($8,800)
Lanto Griffin is a lesser-known name among the casual golf fan, but he’s amassed three top-ten wins on the PGA Tour this season. Talk about flying under the radar. The 33-year old native of California last cracked the top ten with a T3 finish at The American Express, earning additional T30, T16, and T39 finishes across his previous three events. Griffin took a week off during The Honda Classic last weekend, so he’s yet another player rested and ready to produce at Bay Hill. He’s 37th in total strokes gained, so his irons are solid. The issue comes with his GIR conversion rate and driving accuracy, which rank outside the top 10o on Tour. However, he makes up for this with a 4.18 birdie average and is ranked inside the top 50 in strokes gained putting and strokes gained approaching the green. Lanto has had solid success at Bay Hill, going T21 and T36 in his previous two appearances. At under $9,000 on FanDuel, Lanto may be the most underrated value prospect on the slate. Add him into lineups with a guaranteed high floor and the potential to deliver a high ceiling performance.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.
