Now that we’re in the final stretch, NBA basketball is starting to heat up. Every game is crucial at this point as the playoff picture gets nearer and nearer to being complete. We’re seeing defensive efforts begin to ramp up, the starters are willing to take on more minutes, and the game environments are starting to give off playoff vibes. With every game mattering that much more, it’s an excellent time of year for NBA fans.
The action continues on Saturday with a five-game slate. As always, it should be a fun one to dissect, so let’s go ahead and get things rolling.
The Primer is a first look article filled with all the information you need to help get your lineups started. We’ll begin with the schedule and odds to highlight which game environments stand out. We follow that up with the injury report, an essential part of any DFS player’s daily process. Then we shed light on some of our top plays of the slate, including core building blocks, GPP candidates, cash game considerations, and salary relief targets. Finally, we’ll always wrap up with our advantageous pricing segment, which uncovers price discrepancies between FanDuel and DraftKings.
So without further ado, let’s jump into another edition of the NBA DFS Primer brought to you by FantasyPros.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Schedule and Odds
- SAS @ CHA (-3.5) O/U: 241
- ORL @ MEM (-15.5) O/U: 231
- PHI @ MIA (-1) O/U: 220.5
- POR @ MIN (-12.5) O/U: 233
- GSW @ LAL (+6) O/U: 225.5
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
Injury Report
- Devin Vassell (groin) questionable
- Lonnie Walker (back) questionable
- Kyle Lowry (personal) OUT
- Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
- Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
- Max Strus (shoulder) questionable
- Wendell Carter Jr. (illness) questionable
- Eric Bledsoe (Achilles) OUT
- Justise Winslow (Achilles) OUT
- Josh Hart (rest) OUT
- Gary Payton (knee) OUT
- Andre Iguodala (back) OUT
- LeBron James (knee) questionable
- Avery Bradley (knee) probable
- Talen Horton-Tucker (ankle) questionable
The injury report can change at any minute, and all player statuses are subject to change whether they’re on the injury report or not. Paying attention to as much news as possible is crucial to long-term success in DFS. It can also give you a severe leg up on anyone in the field who fails to do so. Once the later game information becomes available, be sure to take advantage of late swapping. Late swap allows you to get off the chalk and plug-in value plays that may not have been expected or get to a high upside play in an attempt to take one last run at the top of the leaderboard. Keeping up with all the news and information that comes out can be a lot to manage, but it’s essential.
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
Core Plays
James Harden (PG/SG-PHI): $11,700 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
The beard is back in full effect! Harden looks in excellent shape and seems to be fitting in perfectly on the 76er’s roster. In his first three games with his new squad, the veteran guard has averaged 26.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 12 assists. Even in last night’s game where he got in early foul trouble, which caused him to sit for most of the second quarter, he ended with a 25 point, 11 assist double-double. The future Hall of Famer looks to be locked in and motivated right now, and that’s the James Harden I want in my lineups.
Dejounte Murray (PG-SAS): $10,800 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Dejounte made last week’s NBA Primer but ended up sitting out, so I’m going right back to him tonight. Murray has become one of the premier talents in the NBA. He’s exciting to watch and has become one of the best point guards the game has to offer. His length and long arms have helped him become one of the better rebounding guards with 8.4 a game, coming in only behind Luka Doncic. He has tremendous ball-handling skills to go along with it making him a fantastic playmaker, as well. Murray carries a 26.7% usage rate heading into tonight’s matchup against the Hornets, and I expect him to have another stellar performance. Charlotte is the worst rebounding team in the league, and they don’t defend the point guard position well. Most recently, they were torched by Darius Garland for 33 points. Murray is a triple-double threat every time he steps on the court, and I like his chances to be one of the top plays on tonight’s slate.
Cash Game Considerations
Karl-Anthony Towns (C-MIN): $10,200 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
I like KAT’s salary on FanDuel tonight. That doesn’t mean I won’t be sprinkling in some of him over at DraftKings, but the majority of my exposure will most likely be over at FD, at least from a first look standpoint. The Timberwolves go up against the Portland Trailblazers at home tonight. Portland is in complete rebuild mode at this point and is a team that, well, doesn’t really have an identity and is without their star point guard in Damian Lillard (abdomen). Portland was recently blown out by 30 to a Suns team without Devin Booker (illness) and Chris Paul (thumb). KAT should have a field day against this Portland squad who will be throwing out the likes of Drew Eubanks to try and slow him down.
Tyler Herro (PG/SG-MIA): $7,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Kyle Lowry (personal) has been ruled out for tonight’s home game against the Philadelphia 76ers. That will once again leave added opportunity on the table for Tyler Herro. The young guard for Miami has stepped up in Lowry’s absence and is shooting the ball well of late. Over the last eight games, Herro has had only one game where he ended with less than 35 DK points, with four of those games ending in over 40. Over his last five games, he has averaged 25.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. Jimmy Butler (toe) missed the last game and is now questionable for tonight. Either way, Herro looks to be in an excellent spot to have another solid DFS performance at an appealing salary on both sites, especially if Butler sits out again.
GPP Candidates
Terry Rozier (PG/SG-CHA); $8,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Rozier has been playing fantastic basketball over his last few games. Over his last four, he’s gone over 45 fantasy points in three of them, finishing with 54 in his most recent. He’s been on fire from behind the arc over that span, making 15 of his 31 attempts which are good for 48.4%. Rozier will likely have a low roster percentage making him a viable GPP candidate for tonight. I’ll continue to ride the hot hand of Terry Rozier against a middle-of-the-road defense like the San Antonio Spurs.
Anfernee Simons (PG-POR): $8,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
Simons has cooled off lately after having a three-game stretch in mid-February, where he had three straight games of 30 or more points. Josh Hart (rest) has already been ruled out for tonight’s game due to rest purposes which should lead to a few extra shot attempts for Simons. While Portland is struggling as a team, Simons has shown promise with his quick shooting release, ability to knock the three-ball down, and playmaking skills. With the suspected rotation Portland will run tonight, Simons bolsters a 30.6% usage rate. After two down performances, I look for the young point guard to run the show for Portland and have an excellent bounce-back game, win or lose. If he can get it going, he shouldn’t have much problem at all giving us an excellent return on investment, especially at sub 7k over on FanDuel.
Ja Morant (PG-MEM): $10,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Ja has been must-see TV all season as he continues to make high light reel, worthy plays night in and night out. He is making his name heard in the MVP talks too. As far as DFS, he has 50 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games with two 60 plus performances during that span. Morant and the Grizzlies face the Orlando Magic tonight, where they’re -15.5 point favorites. With the Grizz being such large favorites, there will be some blow-out risk, but if this game does end up a lopsided affair, I will bet Morant was one of the main reasons. I’m banking on Morant having another huge outing as he and the Grizzlies roll through this young Orlando Magic squad.
Value Plays
Patrick Beverley (PG-MIN) $5,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Pat Bev isn’t the sexiest play by any means. He doesn’t have much upside attached to rostering him, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a viable salary relief candidate. With the second-highest implied total on the slate, this Portland and Minnesota game will be an environment to target for DFS. There should be plenty of scoring and assist opportunities for Beverley, who has 21 in the last three games and at least one steal in the previous nine. If you’re looking to round out your lineup, you could do a lot worse than the solid floor Pat Bev offers.
Lonnie Walker IV (PG/SG/SF-SAS): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
There isn’t much value left for Walker over at FanDuel with them pricing him up to almost 6k, but I do like his price tag on DraftKings. Over the last six games, Walker has averaged 31.3 DK points, and he has had 20 or more raw points in his previous four. He is questionable with back tightness, but if he’s able to go, I’ll be looking his way. Walker and the Spurs will face off against the Charlotte Hornets, who have an OPRK of 23, 22nd in defensive rating, and dead last in rebounds allowed. I like Walker’s outlook against a bottom-of-the-barrel defense.
Advantageous Pricing
- Lonnie Walker IV (PG/SG/SF-SAS): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
- Anfernee Simons (PG-POR): $8,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
- Terry Rozier (PG/SG-CHA); $8,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
- Karl-Anthony Towns (C-MIN): $10,200 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
- James Harden (PG/SG-PHI): $11,700 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
- Dejounte Murray (PG-SAS): $10,800 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
- Stephen Curry (PG-GSW): $10,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
- Tyrese Maxey (PG-PHI): $6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
- Joel Embiid (C-PHI): $11,900 DraftKings, $11,00 FanDuel
- Bam Adebayo (C-MIA): $8,900 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
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Evan Ritter is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Evan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter.