March Madness Cinderellas, Sweet Sixteen, and Survivor Pool Picks (2022 NCAA Tournament)

There is a myriad of different scoring settings in March Madness Bracket Pools. Many just use a basic one-point incremental scoring system, while others double the point value in each subsequent round of the tournament. You need to tailor your picks to the respective scoring structure. Today, I’ll tell you my favorite first-round upsets for the first round and beyond, as well as my favorite selections for survivor contests. As the Joker once said, here…we…go.

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Favorite First-Round Cinderellas

(11) Notre Dame/Rutgers > (6) Alabama
(13) Vermont > (4) Arkansas
(10) Davidson > (7) Michigan State
(12) UAB > (5) Houston
(13) Chattanooga > (4) Illinois
(13) South Dakota State > (4) Providence
(10) Miami > (7) USC
(11) Virginia Tech > (6) Texas
(12) Wyoming/Indiana > (5) Saint Mary’s

All of these have a chance for multiple wins in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Every top seed has flaws, making these lower-seeded schools very dangerous underdogs.

The play-in game winner always gets hot, and both First Four games (No. 11 & No. 12 seeds) fit the Cinderella profile. Both Notre Dame and Rutgers bring unique styles that would cause problems for Alabama. The Crimson Tide have struggled from deep all season, shooting just 30.8% from beyond the arc. Last year, Alabama led the SEC with 37.8% marksmanship in deep against conference opponents. Notre Dame was the No. 1 ACC team in 3PT efficiency, limited offensive turnovers, and ranked Top 40 in the nation in defensive rebounding. Rutgers’s aggressive, blue-collar defensive style would also push Bama out of their comfort zone. No. 5 seeded Saint Mary’s is the most overseeded team in the tournament, lacking any quality wins outside of the West Coast Conference. The winner of tonight’s Indiana vs. Wyoming game has a fantastic matchup to reach the Round of 32.

Two of my favorite first-round upsets involve 10 seeds, which actually carry a higher winning percentage against No. 2 seeds (39.2%) than against their opening round 7-seeded opponents (38.9%). Davidson is led by point guard Foster Loyer (16.3 PPG, 44.5% 3P) who is in a huge revenge spot against his former team, Michigan State. Davidson shoots 38.5% from beyond the arc, eighth-best in the nation, and shoots almost 76% from the free-throw line. The tournament history with Stephen Curry is well-documented, but the Wildcats also put a major scare into Kentucky back in 2018, holding a one-point lead late in the second half. Davidson would certainly not be intimidated by a potential second-round matchup with No. 2 seeded Duke, especially after the Wildcats tallied a 79-78 semi-away win over Alabama in December.

The most under-seeded team in the tournament is Miami, who owns impressive true road wins over Duke, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest. Seniors Cameron McGusty (17.6 PPG, 37.3% 3P) and Charlie Moore (12.6 PPG, 37.4% 3P) are veteran guards that can score from deep and are complimented by slasher Isaiah Wong (15.2 PPG). Any team with Jim Larranaga (and his George Mason Final Four pedigree) is a legitimate threat to wear that year’s NCAA Tournament glass slipper.

The most popular first-round upset is No. 13 South Dakota State over No. 4 Providence. The country has doubted the Friars’ overall season, citing their No. 1 overall ranking in KenPom’s Luck Metric. While I like the Jackrabbits, I have an even stronger lean towards No. 12 seed UAB over No. 5 Houston. The Blazers, much like AAC-rival Memphis, can match the Cougars’ intense defensive pressure and elite offensive rebounding ability. The Blazers also feature one of the most exciting players in the tournament in Jordan “Jelly” Walker (20.4 PPG, 40.6% 3P).

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Sweet Sixteen Sleepers

(13) Vermont > (5) Connecticut
(10) Davidson > (2) Duke
(13) South Dakota State > (4) Providence
(10) Miami > (2) Auburn
(11) Virginia Tech > (3) Purdue
(7) Murray State > (2) Kentucky

Vermont is well-coached, disciplined, and super-efficient on offense. There is upset history with the Catamounts, who pulled off one of the legendary opening-round victories in NCAA Tournament history when they upset No. 4 seeded Syracuse in 2005. This year’s Vermont team dominated the America East Conference, ranking first across the board in almost every major metric. When compared on a national scale, the Catamounts’ Cinderella profile looks even stronger. They rank third overall in college basketball at 2PT efficiency (58.9%), while sitting top 20 at 2PT defense (45.2% allowed). Vermont also is the No. 1 overall defensive rebounding team in the country, which would challenge a Connecticut team that struggles to score on the interior. Playing in Buffalo, even against the nearby Huskies, would be another advantage for a Vermont team that has won 21 of their last 22 games.

I have yet to be impressed with the inconsistent Blue Devils, who were gifted a No. 2 overall seed despite a far-worse profile than No. 3 Tennessee. The elite shooting Wildcats could definitely make the second round, as could the sharpshooting Virginia Tech Hokies.

Head coach Mike Young is an offensive mastermind that guided the Hokies to four wins in four days en route to the ACC Tournament title. Purdue’s poor defensive rating (No. 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency) has been a concern all season, and an elite offensive team like the Hokies are the perfect foil to the talented, but sloppy Boilermakers.

I dare to dream with a Murray State team with an elite 30-2 record. The Racers are among the nation’s best at defending the 3PT line, and 6-foot-10 KJ Williams (18.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG) could at least slow down SEC Player of the Year Oscar Tschiebwe (17.1 PPG, 15.1 RPG). Murray State is a very live underdog, even against a National Champion contender like the Wildcats.

First Round Survivor Picks

(2) Duke > (15) Cal State Fullerton
(8) North Carolina > (9) Marquette
(8) San Diego State > (9) Creighton
(5) Iowa > (12) Richmond
(4) UCLA > (13) Akron
(2) Kentucky > (15) St. Peter’s
(5) Connecticut > (12) New Mexico State

I like to use first-round survivor teams that I think could be on upset alert in Round 2. The Blue Devils face a difficult opponent in the Round of 32 in either Davidson or Michigan State. North Carolina’s Armando Bacot (16.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG) should be enough to get by an overachieving Marquette team, but I have serious doubt the Tar Heels can beat Baylor. Creighton enjoyed a tremendous run to the Big East Final but is playing without their starting point guard, Ryan Nembhard due to injury. San Diego State’s superior defense should disrupt the Bluejays enough to get the first-round victory. Richmond was in trouble in their A10 semifinal matchup with Dayton but staged a remarkable comeback when Flyers’ point guard Malachi Smith left with an injury. The Spiders had a wonderful year, but won’t be able to limit the explosive Iowa offense.

My dream of Murray State reaching a Sweet 16 causes me to recommend taking Kentucky as the safest of picks in Round One. I have doubted this Connecticut team all year, but Adama Sanogo’s interior presence will be enough to survive a pesky New Mexico State defense. If only for fear of the play-in game, UCLA is also a safe play with a veteran team returning the entire core from last year’s Final Four campaign.

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