March Madness has arrived!

The NCAA Tournament is dubbed “March Madness” because it is the most unpredictable sporting event in the world. Even the most knowledgeable college basketball fan has about a 1 in 120 billion chance of filling out a perfect bracket. The goal, however, is not to fill out a perfect bracket, but to fill out the best bracket in your local bracket pool. Whether it’s with friends, at work, or online against thousands of other people, the unpredictable nature of March Madness offers everyone a chance to win bragging rights and money with every NCAA Tournament. This begs the question: If it’s so unpredictable, is there any way to increase the odds of winning?

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Absolutely.

There are basic game theory strategies to remember that can significantly increase your chances of taking home the top prize. There are also several tournament trends to keep in mind as you decide which lower-seeded teams project to reach the Sweet 16 or beyond. Metrics such as KenPom.com, TeamRankings.com, and FiveThirtyEight.com incorporate offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, schedule of strength, and luck to create an overall power ranking. These rankings can help give you a general idea of which teams are overseeded and underseeded.

Let’s take a closer look at some strategies to remember as you are trying to win your own 2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Pool!

Avoid Heavy Favorites

It is really helpful to look at sites such as Yahoo and ESPN to see the most popular picks to win the NCAA Championship. Once you see those odds, it is an advantage to avoid the top selections. The scoring structure of most NCAA Bracket Pools is heavily skewed towards the Final Four and Championship games. If you see that Gonzaga, for example, is being selected 18% of the time, there is no statistical advantage to picking the Bulldogs. Predicting the tournament is impossible. so why pick the favorite with the majority of people when they are usually wrong? If Gonzaga wins the title, you have now eliminated 72% of your opponents. However, if Gonzaga doesn’t win, you have no chance of winning. I’m not advocating to only pick a lower seed to win the championship, but it is good game theory strategy to avoid an overwhelming favorite.

Similarly, don’t pick all four No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four. Since the tournament expanded in 1985, only once has all four No. 1 seeds reach the final weekend, in 2008. Per NCAA.com, here is the breakdown of the variance of No. 1 seeds in the Final Four.

Of the 36 NCAA Tournaments since 1985, there have been two or one No. 1 seeds in the Final Four over 80% of the time. While the success of the No. 1 seeds is difficult to fade, make sure to put no more than two of the top seeds in the final weekend of the tournament.

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The Play-In Game Winner Always Gets Hot

The most often ignored aspects of predicting the bracket are the First Four games in Dayton, Ohio, on Tuesday and Wednesday night. While the two No. 16 seed battles are relatively unimportant (with all due respect to UMBC), predicting the winner of the other two play-in games can be a huge advantage in your local bracket pool.

Except for the 2019 tournament, the winner of the play-in game has won at least two games in every season since the inaugural 2011 season. Two First Four teams (2011 VCU, 2021 UCLA) have reached the Final Four, and three teams (2013 LaSalle, 2014 Tennessee, 2018 Syracuse) have reached the Sweet 16. In short, the winner of that initial game notches a first-round upset in their Thrusday or Friday matchup.

This season, the higher-seeded teams in both scenarios are very vulnerable. No. 6 seeded Alabama will face the winner the of No. 11 battle between Rutgers and Notre Dame. The Crimson Tide enter the tournament on a three-game losing streak, getting upset by Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament. They have some incredible non-conference wins over Gonzaga and Baylor, but also some shocking losses to Georgia and Missouri.  No. 5 seeded Saint Mary’s will play the winner of the No. 12 matchup between Wyoming and Indiana. The Gaels earned a shocking No. 5 seed after earning all four Quadrant I wins within the West Coast Conference.  Saint Mary’s earned huge points with the committee after a victory against No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga, but is that a result of seasonal familiarity?

Most office brackets are not submitted until after the First Four games are played, giving an even better opportunity to identify which play-in game team will advance at least two rounds.

The Lower Round Upsets

Everyone wants to correctly predict the lower seed upsets in the first round, but it’s important not to go overboard and fade too many favorites. Here are some critical trends on the likelihood of the most popular lower-seeded upsets.

• The No. 10 over the No. 7 Upset:  This is the most popular upset since the tournament expanded in 1985. The 10-seeds have won 39.6% (57-87) of their opening matchups, and at least one No. 10 seed has advanced every year since 2010. In the past two NCAA Tournaments, more No. 10 seeds have won (five) than lost (three) to their No. 7 seed counterparts.
• The No. 11 over the No. 6 Upset:  The underdog has won this matchup 37.5% of the time since 1985, with at least once No. 11 seed winning in a mindblowing 16 straight seasons. In a four-year span from 2014 to 2018, 12 of the 20 matchups have been won by the lower-seeded team.
• The No. 12 over the No. 5 Upset:  This is the most popular upset of the past decade. There are been 51 times a No. 12 seed has defeated a No. 12, for a win rate of 35.4% (51-93). Since 2013, 12-seeds have earned an opening-round win in 40.6% (13-19), with three No. 12 seeds advancing on three (2013, 2014, 2019) separate occasions.
• The No. 13 over the No. 4 Upset:  This upset is less popular, occurring only 20.5% of the time. However, in the last three tournaments, No. 13 seeds have won a surprising 41.7% (5 of 12) of the matchups.
• The No. 15 over the No. 2 Upset:  While only occurring nine times in the past 36 NCAA Tournaments, the No. 15 seeds have found a way to win five times in the past nine tournaments. This includes last year when No. 15 Abilene Christian upset their intrastate rivals, No. 2 Texas.

Knowing the history of the tournament and understanding trends can provide help in picking a winning bracket. Remember to avoid the heavy favorites, pick your favorite play-in game-winner, and identify which lower seeds will continue the incredible upset history of the greatest sporting event ever created, March Madness.

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