For those of you who are in 7×7 or 8×8 leagues with holds, we are providing a ranking of the top non-closer relief options. Set-up men and other high-leverage relievers deserve love, too. This will be a weekly ranking and report of non-closers for SV+H leagues, along with an additional report of closers who are candidates to lose their job and who might take over.
If you enjoy going the extra distance, doing a little digging, and scouting a deeper player pool, please consider adding holds to your categories (and following this guide/ranking for the remainder of the season.)
Now, let’s get into it.
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The Process and Notes
When evaluating players from a fantasy perspective, I look at projections from various trusted sources, past performance, how many categories they can contribute to, scouting, and, finally, pitch data. If you’re a stuff guy like me (…this is the only context that statement would be accepted as okay), the deep non-closers pool is highly intriguing.
Players like Devin Williams (RP – MIL) and Craig Kimbrel (RP – CWS) check just about every box as a Tier 1 (described below) premier option. Like saves, these guys will be among the top in holds but not necessarily a lock to finish number one in the category. Both Williams and Kimbrel provide elite strikeout numbers, occasional save opportunities and a proven, successful track record with the chance to become a top-10 closer given an injury to the incumbent Josh Hader (RP – MIL) or Liam Hendriks (RP – CWS). We also have some new additions to this list, like Will Smith (RP – ATL) (thanks, Kenley Jansen (RP – ATL)).
If you miss out on the top guys, there are still those trusty setup men/high leverage non-closers through and through who can provide in every pitching category but saves. Jonathan Loáisiga (RP – NYY), Aaron Bummer (RP – CWS), and Chad Green (RP – NYY) fit this bill.
Unclear Situations
And then, of course, we have the committees where who knows who will get the save and who will get the hold one day (see the San Francisco Giants’ three-headed monster of Tyler Rogers (RP – SF), Jake McGee (RP – SF) and Camilo Doval (RP – SF)). For this circumstance, I think it seems likely Doval will be the majority closer, so we will rank Rogers and McGee, not Doval.
However, while Rogers’ 2021 season screams Tier 2 or even Tier 1 consideration, the lack of Ks and very likely regression of the Giants overall bump him down into Tier 3. Per Codify, not one pitcher (other than Rogers) threw a strike this year where the ball got to the plate two or more feet higher than when it left the pitcher’s hand. Incredibly, the San Fran submariner tallied this feat 48 times! Sure, he is as unique as they come and induces among the weakest contact in the league, but FantasyPros’ Zeile Consensus Rankings (and I) expect sizable regression in 2022.
Jake Diekman (RP – BOS) is undoubtedly an intriguing option. He now finds himself in an excellent team situation but was in the bottom 7% in walk rate last year and showed significant regression in all advanced metrics from his pristine 2020 season to 2021. Despite the negatives, Chaim Bloom and Alex Cora could undoubtedly be relying on Diekman as a consistent 9th inning option if lefties are due up.
It appears Jordan Hicks (RP – STL) will start the season in the bullpen, but it is unclear, so we will avoid ranking him.
The Padres also appear to be completely unsure of their closer situation, so we will stray away from ranking any member of their pen.
Though it is pretty unclear, the Mariners will likely use some combination of Paul Sewald (RP – SEA) and Drew Steckenrider (RP – SEA) with Diego Castillo (RP – SEA) and Casey Sadler (RP – SEA) functioning in the 7th/8th innings like last year.
We will assume Blake Treinen (RP – LAD) is functioning as the Dodgers’ closer and thus will rank the other members of the Dodgers’ bullpen.
With Lucas Sims (RP – CIN) injured, it is still very unclear who the Reds’ closer will be. Thus, we will not rank any Reds right now.
The Tiers
Tier 1) Elite. Expected to contribute at a high level in ERA/WHIP/H/SV/K categories. Proven track record. Big arms.
Tier 2) Great. Those who aren’t quite at elite status but have a minor circumstance, lack of experience, or slight negative in their game keep them from the top.
Tier 3) Good. Will damage you here or there in one, maybe two categories (i.e. Rogers with Ks and likely overall regression) but have a proven track record or excellent team situation (Hudson with Dodgers).
Tier 4) Above Average. They might be as skilled as Tier 3 pitchers and will mostly get the job done from week to week, but could hurt ERA and WHIP with a few blow-up spots, or they might be in a very crowded pen or a poor situation.
Tier 5) Slightly Above Average. They are impactful MLB pieces and have true pluses in their game, but might also have noticeable prior/recent statistical issues elsewhere or are simply in a lousy team situation.
Tier 6) Average. Sure, they are pretty useful MLB pieces, but likely not too beneficial for fantasy purposes.
The Rankings (w/2022 Zeile Consensus Projections)
| Rank | Player | Team | IP | ERA | WHIP | SV+H | K |
| Tier 1 | |||||||
| 1. | Devin Williams | MIL | 62 | 3.02 | 1.16 | 20 | 90 |
| 2. | Craig Kimbrel | CHW | 62 | 3.54 | 1.14 | 24 | 93 |
| 3. | Will Smith | ATL | 66 | 3.94 | 1.18 | 21 | 78 |
| Tier 2 | |||||||
| 4. | Jonathan Loaisaga | NYY | 71 | 3.38 | 1.18 | 19 | 75 |
| 5. | Aaron Bummer | CHW | 62 | 3.04 | 1.23 | 18 | 72 |
| 6. | Chad Green | NYY | 73 | 3.57 | 1.06 | 21 | 89 |
| 7. | Collin McHugh | ATL | 64 | 3.78 | 1.19 | 15 | 69 |
| 8. | Diego Castillo | SEA | 61 | 3.71 | 1.19 | 22 | 69 |
| 9. | Hector Neris | HOU | 71 | 3.76 | 1.23 | 21 | 88 |
| Tier 3 | |||||||
| 10. | Tyler Rogers | SF | 73 | 3.91 | 1.26 | 28 | 52 |
| 11. | Daniel Hudson | LAD | 59 | 4.02 | 1.20 | 21 | 71 |
| 12. | Ryan Tepera | LAA | 64 | 3.96 | 1.23 | 20 | 73 |
| 13. | Luke Jackson | ATL | 63 | 3.88 | 1.35 | 18 | 67 |
| 14. | Kendall Graveman | CWS | 62 | 3.82 | 1.27 | 16 | 62 |
| Tier 4 | |||||||
| 15. | Anthony Bender | MIA | 65 | 3.69 | 1.22 | 22 | 69 |
| 16. | Pete Fairbanks | TB | 61 | 3.45 | 1.27 | 23 | 76 |
| 17. | Tim Mayza | TOR | 59 | 3.65 | 1.24 | 18 | 62 |
| 18. | Trevor May | NYM | 64 | 3.81 | 1.22 | 19 | 81 |
| 19. | Joe Kelly | CWS | 51 | 3.62 | 1.31 | 10 | 55 |
| 20. | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | 84 | 3.71 | 1.23 | 20 | 87 |
| 21. | Aaron Loup | LAA | 60 | 3.70 | 1.20 | 15 | 58 |
| 22. | Alex Vesia | LAD | 57 | 4.01 | 1.26 | 19 | 73 |
| 23. | Phil Bickford | LAD | 54 | 3.92 | 1.23 | 14 | 60 |
| 24. | Jake McGee | SF | 60 | 3.93 | 1.16 | 22 | 59 |
| 25. | Jake Diekman | BOS | 64 | 3.77 | 1.35 | 22 | 84 |
| 26. | Matt Wisler | TB | 62 | 3.79 | 1.18 | 16 | 72 |
| Tier 5 | |||||||
| 27. | Tyler Matzek | ATL | 65 | 3.55 | 1.31 | 20 | 80 |
| 28. | Brooks Raley | TB | 50 | 3.75 | 1.23 | 10 | 55 |
| 29. | Jake Cousins | MIL | 56 | 3.60 | 1.25 | 11 | 68 |
| 30. | Garrett Crochet | CWS | 66 | 3.55 | 1.26 | 13 | 80 |
| 31. | Andrew Chafin | DET | 65 | 3.68 | 1.25 | 17 | 65 |
| 32. | Mike Mayers | LAA | 66 | 4.03 | 1.26 | 17 | 76 |
| 33. | Casey Sadler | SEA | 55 | 3.70 | 1.16 | 8 | 51 |
| Tier 6 | |||||||
| 34. | Brad Boxberger | MIL | 62 | 4.35 | 1.32 | 17 | 70 |
| 35. | Seth Lugo | NYM | 65 | 3.85 | 1.21 | 19 | 72 |
| 36. | Tyler Duffey | MIN | 65 | 3.92 | 1.27 | 20 | 68 |
| 37. | Josh Staumont | KC | 64 | 3.99 | 1.33 | 22 | 73 |
| 38. | Clay Holmes | NYY | 63 | 3.95 | 1.38 | 15 | 67 |
| 39. | Richard Bleier | MIA | 63 | 3.57 | 1.22 | 16 | 46 |
| 40. | A.J. Minter | ATL | 56 | 3.65 | 1.28 | 14 | 63 |
Closers At Risk
Switching gears a bit, we will highlight some presumptive closers heading into the 2022 season who risk losing their job. This might be due to prior performance and an expectation to struggle early or perhaps a very intriguing set-up man who could put pressure on a closer with just one or two mishaps.
This will be a weekly report. Let’s dive into it:
The 30-year old Finnegan will likely begin the 2022 season as the Nationals’ closer. Finnegan’s 2021 numbers are respectable as he put up a 3.55 ERA with 68 strikeouts over 66 innings. Finnegan finished with 11 saves and was the clear-cut closer to end last year’s campaign. While Finnegan was lights out for the middle part of the year, he struggled mightily to close it out (pun intended). Finnegan pitched 13 innings in September, giving up nine earned runs while inducing hard contact with lousy control and allowing three home runs and six walks. We find that Finnegan was a mainly average pitcher throughout the season. His stuff isn’t all that great, and he was in the bottom 50% in the league in chase rate to go along with an ugly 4.64 BB/9 (which is right around where he sat in 2020). Unlucky for Finnegan, Tanner Rainey (RP – WAS) showed glimpses of his 2020 self where he was borderline un-hittable. Similar to Finnegan; however, Rainey struggles to an extreme degree with control. However, from a pure stuff standpoint, Rainey can strike out any batter he faces. With a high spin, high-velocity fastball, and plus slider, Finnegan is a massive threat. It comes down to who will throw strikes for the Nationals to end the game.
Taking one glimpse at the numbers, you might call me crazy. Barlow, like Finnegan, notched 11 saves in 2021 and finished with a minuscule 1.55 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and .124 BAA. However, there is more than what meets the eye here. Barlow was incredibly lucky last season, sporting an xFIP of 4.56 and xERA of 3.39. Now, no one is saying these numbers are bad, but it is quite likely to assume – not expect – that Barlow will not come close to sniffing his 2021 campaign. Even worse, the next man up, Spencer Patton (RP – TEX), has a lower xFIP and xERA totals with arguably better stuff. Both pitchers are solid relievers – that is not the argument – but given the fortunate nature of Barlow’s 2021, there might be an opportunity for Patton reasonably early on.
Much like the Cub’s overall outlook, the bullpen is murky. However, Rowan Wick should begin the season in the 9th inning for Chicago. While Wick is an all-around fine reliever, the presence of David Robertson (RP – CHC) and Mychal Givens (RP – CHC) – two veterans with legitimate closer experience – makes him a risky closer option. There has to be a short leash here for Wick, as it would not surprise me if one of Robertson or Givens is closing out games by the time April finishes.
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