Recently, I wrote an article comparing projections to ADP to find bargains and expose potential busts. Today I want to take this concept further, focusing solely on finding hitters with upside. Once again, I started by comparing the Zeile Consensus Projections to the Consensus ADP, concentrating exclusively on offense this time.
ADP is pretty straightforward, but how do you assign total value based on projections? Several catch-all offensive stats are out there that I considered using, but none are perfect at capturing a player’s value to a 5×5 roto league. Thus, I created my version of FantasyPros’ VBR using the latest projections. First, I filtered the projections down to the top 150 hitters in terms of ADP. Then I ranked each vs. the average for each of the 5×5 categories, coming up with a total that I refer to as their “Projected Hitter Value.”
Below are the players whose “Projected Hitter Values” have the most significant negative variance to their ADP. For each, I speculate on why this may be and whether or not you should consider targeting the player in your upcoming fantasy draft.
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Recently, I wrote an article comparing projections to ADP to find bargains and expose potential busts. Today I want to take this concept further, focusing solely on finding hitters with upside. Once again, I started by comparing the Zeile Consensus Projections to the Consensus ADP, concentrating exclusively on offense this time.
ADP is pretty straightforward, but how do you assign total value based on projections? Several catch-all offensive stats are out there that I considered using, but none are perfect at capturing a player’s value to a 5×5 roto league. Thus, I created my version of FantasyPros’ VBR using the latest projections. First, I filtered the projections down to the top 150 hitters in terms of ADP. Then I ranked each vs. the average for each of the 5×5 categories, coming up with a total that I refer to as their “Projected Hitter Value.”
Below are the players whose “Projected Hitter Values” have the most significant negative variance to their ADP. For each, I speculate on why this may be and whether or not you should consider targeting the player in your upcoming fantasy draft.
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Projected Hitter Values
Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL)
2022 Projections: .282 BA, 18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 80 Runs, 3 SBs
Hitter ADP: 132 | Projected Hitter Value: 83 | Overall ADP: 218
Blackmon will turn 36 during the season, and his production faded considerably in 2020 and 2021. However, the projections suggest he was a bit unlucky last year and may rebound a tad in 2022. Adding the DH in the NL may help him stay fresh as he figures to see plenty of ABs in that role. He is a plus player in terms of BA and near the norm in runs and RBIs. He won’t help you much in HRs and SBs, though. If you are looking for an outfielder late in your draft, you could do worse. Rostering him is more about protecting the downside than generating upside, however.
Franmil Reyes (OF, DH – CLE)
2022 Projections: .258 BA, 37 HRs, 103 RBIs, 79 Runs, 3 SBs
Hitter ADP: 70 | Projected Hitter Value: 32 | Overall ADP: 112
Reyes is probably being drafted a bit later than his numbers as he’s only eligible at DH in ESPN and CBS leagues, limiting roster options. Also, an oblique injury held him to 115 games last season, which may concern some. But based on the pure numbers, he should be going earlier in drafts. He’s projected to be among the league leaders in HRs and RBIs and near the league average in runs and BA. The Franimal won’t help you on the base paths, but most players don’t. He has a top 50 player upside, so you may find a steal if you can nab him in the middle rounds.
Adam Duvall (OF – ATL)
2022 Projections: .231 BA, 33 HRs, 90 RBIs, 67 Runs, 3 SBs
Hitter ADP: 129 | Projected Hitter Value: 92 | Overall ADP: 215
Duvall had a fantastic 2021, finishing the year 5th in RBIs with 113 and tied for 10th in HRs with 38. His Statcast data supports that it wasn’t a fluke either. With the DH in the NL now, he should see plenty of ABs again in 2022. Duvall will drag down your BA some but should once again be a solid source of power later in the draft. If you find yourself lacking in this department, he could be an excellent value at his current ADP. His projections are similar to former teammate Jorge Soler (OF – MIA), who is going four rounds earlier.
Jared Walsh (1B, OF – LAA)
2022 Projections: .265 BA, 32 HRs, 99 RBIs, 80 Runs, 2 SBs
Hitter ADP: 74 | Projected Hitter Value: 40 | Overall ADP: 119
If you believe the projections, Walsh is criminally under-rated and should be drafted ahead of players with similar profiles such as Cody Bellinger (OF – LAD), Mitch Haniger (OF – SEA), and Ryan Mountcastle (1B, OF – BAL). I believe that the problem with Walsh in fantasy managers’ eyes is that his power dissipated in the second half of last season and that he doesn’t have the track record or pedigree to inspire much confidence. He also struggles mightily against lefties and could end up in a platoon. For those reasons, I side with the fantasy managers on this one. His current ADP feels right, as he may have already had his career year.
Frank Schwindel (1B – CHC)
2022 Projections: .268 BA, 24 HRs, 78 RBIs, 72 Runs, 2 SBs
Hitter ADP: 131 | Projected Hitter Value: 97 | Overall ADP: 217
Schwindel was a little-known 29-year-old rookie when he was inserted into the Cubs lineup full-time after their fire sale at the trade deadline. He was a pleasant surprise, out-producing the first-half numbers of the man he replaced in the lineup – Anthony Rizzo (1B – NYY). Whether he’s for real or the next Bryan LaHair (1B, OF – BOS) is debatable. The projections indicate regression but still near league-average production in HRs, RBIs, and BA. Perhaps the best news for Schwindel is that he should have a clear path to playing time, which helps his counting stats. I won’t go so far as to say I’d target him, but if you need a first baseman late in the draft, he’s a safe option.
Nathaniel Lowe (1B – TEX)
2022 Projections: .262 BA, 21 HRs, 73 RBIs, 73 Runs, 5 SBs
Hitter ADP: 148 | Projected Hitter Value: 114 | Overall ADP: 243
Lowe started last season on fire, hitting 6 HRs and driving in 22 before May 1. He cooled after that but still put up solid numbers for the rest of the year. His projections for 2022 peg him as an almost perfectly average hitter. He doesn’t excel in any of the 5×5 categories but doesn’t hurt you either. If there’s an argument for upside, he could have an opportunity for more RBIs this season with the additions of Corey Seager (SS – TEX) and Marcus Semien (2B, SS – TEX) to the Rangers lineup. Whether or not he’s worth adding to your fantasy team depends on what you’re looking for near the end of the draft. His solid contributions across the board make him an excellent bench player, but he’s hindered a bit by only having 1B eligibility. I prefer to reach for players with upside late, but if you are more inclined to go for a safe and solid option, Lowe could be your man.
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Scott Youngson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his Archive and Twitter @fantasymutant.
