A winning strategy in fantasy drafts for any sport is to avoid taking too many risks. Unfortunately, not every draft pick can be a sure thing, like Gerrit Cole or Freddie Freeman. Fantasy managers have to take calculated risks throughout drafts in hopes that they will pay off during the season. These risks often include drafting players who are returning from injury, players with a wide range of outcomes, or players who are young and could face some struggles. Here are a few high-risk/high-reward players to consider drafting in 2022.
ADP referenced is FantasyPros Consensus ADP
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Pitchers coming back from injury
Noah Syndergaard and Justin Verlander are returning from Tommy John surgery. This could impact their velocity, their ability to win games and earn quality starts, and make them risky picks in fantasy drafts.
Noah Syndergaard (LAA): ADP 190 overall
He has averaged 98.1 mph on his fastball for his career and has leaned on his fastball/slider combo, but he may not be as successful with his fastball if it loses velocity in his recovery. From 2015 to 2019, his ERA surpassed 3.24 once, and his xERA surpassed 3.00 only once, but most projections signal this year will be one of his worst. Despite that, playing for a new team and being one more year removed from surgery could be beneficial not just for Syndergaard but for fantasy managers who select him.
Justin Verlander (HOU): ADP 106 overall
He will be playing this season at 39 years old, is coming off Tommy John surgery, and will have thrown only six innings since 2019. There is inherent risk in selecting him in fantasy leagues, but he has shown the ability to reinvent himself before. He went from averaging 8.2 K/9 and a 3.52 ERA from 2005 to 2015 to averaging nearly 11 K/9 and a 2.87 ERA from 2016 to 2019 by leaning more heavily on his slider and less on his changeup. Bet on Verlander to find a way to be successful in 2022.
Pitchers with a wide range of outcomes
Sometimes, looking at a pitcher’s historical stats can make you shy away from him because of the wide range of outcomes he has had over his career. What is important is to take into account the circumstances that led to those outcomes, and what led to their success.
Alex Cobb (SF): ADP 347 overall
It has been difficult to figure out which Alex Cobb to expect over the years. He has finished with a sub-3 ERA twice but has had five seasons of an ERA over 4.00. Yet, he finished the 2021 season with a 3.76 ERA and a FIP nearly a run lower. It was also his first time with a K/9 rate over 9, which was not a fluke. He increased his splitter usage and decreased his sinker and curveball usage. He also began using his fastball more after barely using it in the previous three seasons. Cobb also had the 12th-highest groundball rate among pitchers with at least 90 IP last season. The San Francisco pitching coaches have worked wonders with their pitchers the last few seasons, and Cobb should benefit from them.
Young pitchers who could shine or get shelled
Young pitchers tend to possess some risk for fantasy managers. Shane McClanahan and Triston McKenzie are two that could be successful in 2022, or they could struggle.
Shane McClanahan (TB): ADP 102 overall
McClanahan never averaged less than 10 K/9 in the minors or last year in his major league debut. He limits walks and throws hard, but he gives up a lot of hard contact as well – 10% barrel rate and 45% hard-hit rate last year – which could lead to home runs. If he can improve his 45% groundball rate and continue to lean on his slider and curveball (both of which had about a 40% whiff rate), he could potentially limit hard contact and see some improvement. The risk is that hitters start to figure him out, attack the fastball, and balloon his ERA. Only time will tell for McClanahan.
Triston McKenzie (CLE): ADP 228 overall
McKenzie had a rough 2021, finishing with a 4.35 BB/9 rate and a 4.95 ERA despite a pitcher-friendly .227 BABIP. In the minors prior to 2020, he never finished with over 3 BB/9, 1 HR/9, or a 3.50 ERA, so there is reason to believe that he can still produce those sorts of numbers in the majors. Fantasy managers will have to risk picking McKenzie this season in hopes that he can figure out the issues that plagued him last year. Perhaps leaning more on his changeup and less on his fastball like he did in 2020 will help him.
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