Welcome fantasy friends and foes to Fantasy X-Factors for All 30 MLB teams, my debut article here at FantasyPros!
I look past the more prominent names and identify one player from each team who will be available later in drafts and has the upside to make or break your season.
Every championship roster has at least one Fantasy X Factor. Find out which players you should draft to reach the championship.
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The catcher position is always the weakest in fantasy baseball. Therefore, fantasy managers must avoid the minefields at catcher, where the talent pool above replacement level is fragile.
Daulton Varsho is a fantasy unicorn in which he gains additional at-bats in the outfield while remaining catcher-eligible. Varsho is a promising prospect who has admittedly struggled to start his career, including the start of the 2021 season. He hit only .171 with a 27% strikeout rate before being sent down to Triple-A in June and recalled on June 2oth.
Varsho started to produce as he was utilized at multiple positions and became a fixture in the everyday lineup. In the second half, Varsho slashed .290/.349/.530 and a .879 OPS with ten home runs, 32 runs, 31 RBI, and five stolen bases.
Varsho will provide good contact numbers, as evidenced by his 24% whiff rate and 21 K%, both of which are around league average. In addition, his 84th percentile sprint speed is elite, and he has the upside of double-digit steals. That type of fantasy production makes Varsho especially valuable. Varsho has the upside to make him a top-five option at a lean position.
The second time is the charm for Adam Duvall and the Atlanta Braves. In his second stint with the Braves, he hit 16 homers and 45 RBI while producing a .226/.287.513 slash line in 55 games. Duvall finished the season with 38 homers and an NL-leading 113 RBI while posting a 2.4 fWAR.
Duvall hit in the top nine percent of the league in barrel % (16.1) and maximum exit velocity (113.8). Of course, his .228 batting average and 31.4 strikeout percentage make fantasy managers cringe.
However, Duvall is in the upper echelon in the power categories and provides enough advantage to compensate for his less than ideal production in other categories. His low average is not a killer, with the league average coming in at .244.
Austin Hays always seems to be dealing with injuries, including when he missed 28 games in the first half last season. However, he seemed to find his stride in the second half, especially how he finished last season. In his final 30 games, he slashed .285/.352/.569 along with a .921 OPS with eight homers and 22 RBI.
He put together a good 2021 season, slashing .256/.308/.461 with 22 dingers, driving in 73, which gave him a 106 wRC+, 3.1 bWAR, and 2.4 fWAR across 131 games. Of course, health is always a concern, but the promising production to end last season encourages a possible breakout 2022 season.
Last season, Garrett Whitlock, a Rule 5 Draft steal, anchored the Boston Red Sox bullpen. Last season, he was their best reliever, posting an outstanding 1.96 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 in 46 innings of relief. In addition, he handled multi-inning roles and was promoted into high-leverage situations late in games.
It’s not sure what role the right-hander will be entering this season. I would like to see Whitlock build upon last season and ascend to the closer role next season. Either way, I am excited to see what he can do in 2022.
Gavin Sheets is a left-handed power bat who slashed .250/.324/.506 with 11 homers and 34 RBI in only 179 PA last season. In addition, Sheets exhibited an excellent plate approach with an above-average 9% walk rate and 22 % strikeout rate. Although it is a small sample size, the White Sox are prepared to dedicate more at-bats to Sheets this season.
The caveat is his lefty/righty splits. Against southpaws, Sheets hit just .111/.158/.111 in just 19 plate appearances. In contrast, he slashed .268/.344/.556 in 160 PA with his 11 home runs last season. In addition, Sheets cannot be trusted defensively, so he is strictly a player who should enter platoon status with right-hand hitting Andrew Vaughn.
Owning Sheets will test your roster management skills with his platoon status. Nevertheless, Sheets can be a valuable fantasy asset if in your league with daily lineup changes. Additionally, fantasy managers can focus on starting Sheets for his power numbers against right-handers.
Frank Schwindel took over at first base after the Chicago Cubs traded Anthony Rizzo to the New York Yankees at the trade deadline. Schwindel started to rake and became the everyday first baseman. He finished his brief tenure, slashing .42/.389/.613 with 13 homers, 40 RBI, and an insane 1.002 OPS and 165 OPS+.
Of course, his production with the Cubs is not sustainable. Schwindel will not hit .342 or produce a .364 BABIP throughout an entire season. Regression is inevitable, but how much?
There are some good metrics that the downturn won’t be as profound. Schwindel had a 39.8 hard-hit rate (MLB avg. 35.4) and 15.8 percent strikeout percentage (22 percent), along with his .332 xwOBA (.316), are all above-average.
Steamer projects that Schwindel will hit .270 with 27 home runs in 2022, which provides exceptional value at his current 209 ADP.
Tyler Stephenson finished in the top ten in the Rookie of the Year voting based on his .286/.366/.431 slash line with ten home runs and 45 RBI in 132 games. Stephenson platooned with Tucker Barnhart last season, but the front office was confident enough in the young catcher to trade Barnhart to the Detroit Tigers this past offseason.
Entering the 2022 season, Stephenson will be the Reds’ go-to catcher. He played 23 games at first base last season so that the Reds can keep his bat in the lineup. He batted in the cleanup spot more than any other in the lineup.
Stephenson can hit for average and power and makes an excellent pick for a breakout selection at a weak position.
The first start of Cal Quantrill’s season came on May 31 against the White Sox, making a total of 22 starts down the stretch between May and September, posting a 3.12 ERA as a starter and a 7.4 SO/9.
Cal Quantrill went 6+ in 13 of his starts, including a stretch of seven consecutive starts of six or more innings from August 22-September 27. Injuries ravaged Cleveland’s starting rotation. Quantrill stepped up and pitched like an ace in the back half of the season, posting a 1.94 ERA after July 10.
Quantrill is projected as the SP2 in the Guardians rotation and is another gem uncovered by the Cleveland organization.
Brendan Rodgers is a former number three overall draft pick and super-hyped prospect. He was the heir apparent to Trevor Story at shortstop but has seemed to find a home at second base. He has played in the big leagues in three consecutive seasons but limited action. We saw Rodgers playing in more than 25 games for the first time in his career last season.
The 25-year-old got off to a shaky start in his big league career, hitting only .196 with a .462 OPS while producing a 35% strikeout rate over 32 total games. However, Rodgers managed to put together a productive 2021 season with increased playing time. He finished the year with a .284/.328/.470 slash line with 15 homers and 51 RBI.
The most encouraging aspect was that he played his best baseball during the stretch. In his final 28 games, Rodgers slashed .299/.320/.504 with a .824 OPS and hit five homers while knocking in 16 runs.
Fantasy managers have to like what they see as he has seemed to find a home at second base. Rodgers should parlay that confidence into an even better 2022 season.
The Detroit Tigers have to be elated with the progress of their former number one overall draft pick, Casey Mize. He produced a brutal 6.99 ERA and 9.2 hits per nine innings in his first taste of the big leagues in 2020. Last season, the 24-year-old took a step forward, compiling a 7-9 record with a 3.71 ERA and 1.139 FIP across 150.1 innings.
This past season, Mize allowed three earned runs or fewer in 26 out of his 30 outings, which is top of the rotation production. The right-hander is the future ace of the Tigers staff but is still only being drafted with the #241 ADP. I will snag him late in my drafts and take advantage of his continued progression.
Jose Urquidy was a critical factor in helping the Houston Astros get to the World Series last season. He finished the regular season with an 8-3 record, a 3.62 ERA, and a .991 WHIP across 107 innings pitched. Batters only hit .218 against the right-hander while he produced above league average .239 BABIP.
Urquidy also stepped up in the World Series with two wins and compiled a 3.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. He now has three World Series wins, and he has done his part by allowing just two runs in his 11.2 World Series innings while striking out 11 without issuing a free pass.
The right-hander is trending upward with his spot secured in the Astros rotation. He is a solid back-end of the rotation starter who will pay fantasy dividends at the cost of minimal draft capital.
Despite missing Adalberto Mondesi for most of last season, the Kansas City Royals saw something positive from his absence. The team saw the emergence of Nicky Lopez, who took over at shortstop with Mondesi out and necessitated Mondesi moving to third base.
Lopez struggled to start last season, hitting a meager .209 in May. However, as the weather warmed up, so did the left-handed-hitting Lopez. He managed to hit .317 or higher each month from June to September. Lopez finished the 2021 season playing 151 games and producing a .303/.365/.378 slash and .743 OPS with 22 stolen bases. He also finished fifth in the AL with a .851 contact rate, and his .365 OBP provided ammunition for him to get more time at the top of the lineup.
In 51 games, hitting second in the Royals lineup, Lopez hit .330/.383/.414 with a .797 OPS and stole 14 bases. His move to the top of the lineup was the catalyst to his breakout last season. Lopez is projected to hit second in 2022 behind Whitt Merrifield and in front of Salvador Perez, which seems to be a recipe for fantasy success.
The Angels rotation was a disappointment last season, but there was a bright spot with one of their most promising arms in southpaw Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval only started 14 games last season due to a back injury, but he proved to be a key fixture in the Angels rotation.
Sandoval began the season as a reliever but took Jose Quintana‘s spot in the rotation and recorded a solid 3.39 ERA as a starter with a 1.180 WHIP and 3.63 FIP. He also struck out 9.72 hitters per nine innings, with batters only hitting .215 against the left-hander. Additionally, he induced groundballs at an impressive 51.1% rate.
The left-hander has his fantasy needle trending upward. Sandoval put it all together after struggling in 2019 and 2020. Placing your fantasy fortune on players who exhibit improvement is fantasy gold.
AJ Pollock is 34-year-old and has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. Pollock played in 117 games last season, the most he has played since his breakout 2015 season. Nevertheless, he had a resurrection 2021 season with a .297/.355/.536 slash line. It was his best batting average, OBP, and RBI since 2015.
Pollock, who hasn’t hit below .266 since joining the Dodgers in 2016, produced a career-high 47.4% hard-hit rate. He also possesses a good plate approach with an above-average 19 K% and a 7.1 walk rate%.
Implementing the DH in the NL will allow the Dodgers to pull Pollock off of outfield duty and insert him at DH, which will limit his penchant for getting hurt.
Pollock is a late-rounder under-the-radar selection that could be a difference-maker in deeper leagues.
The Miami Marlins acquired super-utility player Joey Wendle this past offseason. Wendle plays above-average defense at three positions: second base, third base, and shortstop.
Wendle is a career .274/.328/.408 hitter and has posted a 100+ OPS+ in three of his past four seasons. He was a 2021 All-Star when he hit .265/.319/.422 with a career-high 11 homers and 54 RBI along with eight stolen bases.
His versatility and reliable on-base skills are his most valuable fantasy assets. Most championship teams roster a Wendle-type player on their roster.
Rowdy Tellez, a midseason pickup from the Toronto Blue Jays, fit well in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, hitting .272/.333/.481 with a .814 OPS and seven homers in 56 games. Tellez was the only source of offense for the Brewers in the NLDS by smacking two homers and knocking in four runs.
He finished in the top sixth percent of the league with a 114.8 maximum exit velocity. The left-handed slugger also cut down his strikeout rate to an above-average 20%.
His at-bats in the lineup should be secured with the designated hitter in the National League. Tellez is an excellent cheap power source for fantasy managers.
The former top Minnesota Twins prospect wasn’t healthy much last season, appearing in only 59 games. Nevertheless, Kirilloff slashed .251/.299/.423 with eight homers, 34 RBI, and 23 runs. At first glance, his numbers don’t jump out at you, but a quick dive reveals that positive regression is on its way for the first baseman/outfielder.
He displayed his raw power by posting a 91 mph average exit velocity and a splendid 12.8 percent barrel rate along with his impressive 44% hard-hit rate. Baseball Savant calculated that his expected batting average was at .291, and his expected slugging percentage was.541.
Kirilloff had an unlucky season with his wrist injury and batted ball misfortune. However, the comeback is happening with his ability to keep his strikeouts down (22.5 K%) and his prospect pedigree.
Nestor Cortes, Jr. was not viewed as a promising prospect. The southpaw was so ineffective in Baltimore that the Orioles sent him back to the Yankees after selecting him in the 2017 Rule 5 draft.
Cortes Jr. established himself as a formidable starter and had a breakout 2021 season. The lefty posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 22 games (14 starts) with 103 strikeouts across 93 innings. In his 14 starts, he allowed three runs or fewer 13 times and batters only hit .217 against the left-hander.
Cortes Jr. is slotted to be the SP4 for the Yankees and looks ready to build off last season while blowing away his current 306 ADP.
This selection wasn’t easy, but it’s impossible to predict what we will get from Robinson Cano after being suspended for the entire 2021 season. Cano played 38 games in Winter Ball this offseason and slashed .295/.363/.389 with 31 RBI and 16 walks but zero power whatsoever.
He was able to produce in the 2020 shortened season with a .316/.352/.544 line with ten dingers and 30 RBI. However, at 39-years-old what does he have left?
Taking the plunge with Cano is a total dart throw pick. Cano is free in drafts now.
James Kaprielian was taken with the 16th overall selection in the 2015 MLB Draft by the New York Yankees and was traded to the Oakland A’s in the Sonny Gray trade. He was projected to be a top-of-rotation starter, but injuries slowed his development.
The A’s gave him a chance to start last season, and he posted a solid 4.07 ERA and a 1.223 WHIP across 119.1 innings. He finished with an 8-5 record and struck out 123 batters with 41 walks. His rookie season demonstrated that he could be a future key starter in the A’s rotation.
Kaprielian displayed some fatigue toward the end of the season after throwing the most innings in his career. In addition, the Athletics are looking to trim payroll. As a result, the A’s will likely trade their top starting pitchers, leaving the door wide open for Kaprielian to emerge as a solid streaming option for fantasy managers.
It looks like the Philadelphia Phillies may have finally cured their bullpen woes. The Phillies signed former All-Star closer Corey Knebel to take over in 2022.
Knebel made 27 appearances for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021, posting a 2.45 ERA and a 0.974 WHIP, which was a new personal single-season best. He only walked nine batters and allowed two home runs.
The concern might be the small sample size of just 25.2 innings and that Knebel missed three months due to a right lat strain but returned strongly to finish the season. The right-hander went 10.1 innings with 13 strikeouts in his last nine appearances and produced an 0.87 ERA.
The volatility of the reliever position allows fantasy managers to take more chances. Therefore, any reliever getting saves opportunities is worth your consideration. Knebel seems to be the front-runner to close games for the Phillies. Saves are saves. You get them when and where you can.
Oneil Cruz knows how to make a great first impression. Cruz played in just two games for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021 and went 3-for-9 and hit a home run 118.2 mph, which was the hardest-hit ball in Pirates history since the Statcast era began.
The 23-year-old generates massive power with his 6’7″ frame. Cruz led all Pirate minor leagues in slugging percentage at .594 and was second with a .284 ISO. He possesses massive offensive potential and has the highest of ceilings.
Who wouldn’t want to draft the 2022 National League Rookie of the Year?
His lingering health concerns notwithstanding, I have Dinelson Lamet as one of my deep sleeper relief pitcher selections. Mark Melancon declined his option for 2022, leaving the San Diego Padres closer job there for the taking. The current options on the Padres roster like Emilio Pagan or Drew Pomeranz do not excite me.
It might be time to realize that Lamet’s arm will never hold up for the duration of the outings for a starter. One or two-innings outings are ideal for maximizing his 98 mph fastball and one of the best sliders in the game. Lamet allowed only a .158 batting average and produced an incredible 42.5 whiff% with his best pitch.
The Padres will be cautious with Lamet, but he seems to be the logical choice to take over the closer role if his arm is healthy. Fantasy managers should make the dart throw in their drafts with one of their final selections. The return on investment could be a league-winner.
Camilo Doval spent the majority of the summer in Triple-A, but he made a significant impact for the rest of the season for the San Francisco Giants. In his 15 final regular-season appearances, Doval registered an 0.00 ERA. He didn’t allow a run while producing a 0.698 WHIP. He also struck out 20 batters across 14.1 innings.
The right-hander can reach triple digits on his fastball that he pairs up with a lethal slider that produces a 40.3% whiff rate. A young reliever with dominant stuff. Where do I sign up?
Jarred Kelenic struggled mightily in his first 21 games in the big leagues. He batted .096 with 26 strikeouts in 83 at-bats, and those struggles earned him a ticket back to Triple-A. Kelenic regained his confidence and posted more substantial numbers to finish the season.
The left-handed-hitting Kelenic did most of his damage against righties. He smashed 12 of his 14 homers, but his average was still below the Mendoza line at .189. In the final 29 games, he came to life as the Mariners were chasing the playoffs. Kelenic slashed .248/.331/.524 with a .854 OPS while hitting seven dingers with 20 RBI and stealing three bases.
The late-season surge gave hope that his prospect pedigree and minor league success will continue to provide promise that Kelenic will build upon that production and carry it into 2022.
Tommy Edman took over for Kolten Wong at second base for the St. Louis Cardinals and sparked the Cardinals lineup. He led the Cardinals with 30 stolen bases, including an above-average 83.3 steal percentage last season.
Edman led the NL with 641 at-bats, but he is not the ideal leadoff hitter. He lacks walks (5.5 BB%) and low .308 OBP but does avoid strikeouts (13.7 K%). However, he possesses pop in his bat, as evidenced by his 41 doubles, which was the second-most in the NL, and he even hit 11 dingers.
Edman is a dual-eligibility position player (2B/OF), a fantasy cheat code that provides roster flexibility. More importantly, his stolen-base production is also essential in roto leagues. It is challenging to find steals off the waiver wire so locking up your steals with Edman gives you an advantage in your fantasy league.
The Tampa Bay Rays are the epitome of player development in baseball. Unfortunately, they are also the most frustrating team in the league if you roster one of the Rays pitchers. They always have insane bullpen depth, and every pitcher gets a turn closing a game as well as throwing the first pitch of the game.
Andrew Kittredge is a perfect example of the team’s development. The right-hander, who owns a career 3.63 ERA, was an unknown through his first four seasons in the big leagues, and Kittredge is now the team’s top reliever. He produced a 1.88 ERA and 0.977 WHIP, 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and 2.3 WAR across 71.2 innings.
Kittredge is currently sitting on top of the bullpen depth chart and listed as the closer in a solid Rays bullpen. He translates his above-average 27.3% strikeout rate with an elite 5.3% walk rate and above-average 54.5% groundball rate into a reliever that I am targeting as a breakout pitcher in 2022.
Joe Barlow took over the closer role after the Texas Rangers traded then-closer Ian Kennedy at the trade deadline. Barlow thrived in the role and finished the season with a 1.55 ERA along with 0.828 WHIP and 27 strikeouts in 29 innings. In addition, he recorded 11 saves out of 12 opportunities, entrenching himself as the Rangers’ top reliever last season.
Barlow is well-positioned to be the Texas Rangers’ closer if we ever play baseball this season. His 1.55 ERA last season is unsustainable, but he did post a creditable 3.42xERA and 3.45 FIP, which supports Barlow being the best option for the Rangers to close out games. Fantasy managers are always looking for saves, and they should look to Globe Life Field.
Nate Pearson has a ton of potential, but injuries keep hindering his progress from justifying being rated as the highest-rated prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays system. Pearson was limited to 33.0 innings last season due to injury and poor performance.
The right-hander has dominated at every level of the minor leagues in the Jays farm system, but we have only witnessed flashes of his ability in the big leagues. Pearson did flash at the end of last season with the Jays putting Pearson in the bullpen. He did finish strong with a 2.84 ERA across 12.2 innings, but his kryptonite, as it has been throughout his young career: a lack of command. He struggled to the tune of seven walks through 11 games.
Pearson is projected as the fifth starter for the Jays, and Steamer projections have faith in the right-hander being a fantasy force in 2022. Pearson is currently free in fantasy drafts, and who doesn’t like free? This is especially true when the return on investment is a steamer starter that presents plenty of upside.
Lane Thomas, acquired in the Jon Lester trade, took over centerfield for the Washington Nationals when the unproductive Victor Robles was demoted to Triple-A. In his month and a half as the starter, Thomas slashed .270/.364/.489/.853 in his solid 45 games with the Nationals. He hit seven homers and produced a .364 OBP and a .853 OPS while recording a 127 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR.
Thomas took advantage of his opportunity and unequivocally earned the chance to go into Spring Training as the team’s starting centerfielder. Now, if he can get Thomas to improve on his .215 BA against righties, he will be a valuable starter in leagues that start three outfielders. However, he is still useful for deeper formats as a 4/5 OF who hits leadoff in front of a top-five Nationals offense.
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Dennis Sosic is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Dennis, check out his archive and follow him @CALL_ME_SOS.