Hey, you.
Yeah, you. I’m going to let you in on a bit of a secret.
Ready?
Sleepers don’t really exist.
It’s true. A decade ago? Sure. But now? When all of this data and information is available, it’s hard to find a true sleeper.
But that doesn’t mean that we can’t change the word’s definition and still make it work.
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There are still sleepers in the sense of value. Like drafters are sleeping on these players because they are going a lot later than they should be and can return a higher value than what you needed to invest into them.
That is how we should be looking at the term sleepers in 2022.
And this year, like every other year, there are sleepers to find in drafts.
In a two-part series, I’ll be highlighting four different sleepers for you in different ranges in the draft.
One from pick 100-199, one from 200-299, one from 300-399, and one from 400 and higher.
We’ll start with the hitters.
Average Draft Position (ADP) referenced using FantasyPros consensus ADP
Alex Kirilloff (OF – MIN) ADP: 186
Kirilloff still classifies as a sleeper with an ADP this low in the fantasy world. But he’s Wide Awake like a Katy Perry song in my world.
We’ve been waiting on the breakout to happen for Kirilloff now for what seems like years. And last year, we finally saw it happen.
Well, until a wrist injury halted it.
If you look at his numbers pre-and post-injury, you can see a huge difference. And his numbers dipped, as Aaron Gleeman pointed out:
Still, despite his competitive trips to the plate, it was evident Kirilloff’s wrist was having an effect. According to Baseball Savant, Kirilloff’s expected batting average slipped from .317 before the injury to .281 after. His average exit velocity dipped from 96.5 mph to 89.7 mph, and his hard-hit rate dropped from 63 percent to 40 percent. Even so, Kirilloff finished the season with a 101 OPS-plus and a 94 wRC+, meaning he was about league average despite the injury.
The Twins’ offense got a lot better this offseason, and with that comes Kirilloff moving down in the batting order.
You’d prefer to see him hit higher, of course, but even hitting seventh, he’s in a spot to rack up the RBIs to go along with a high average and home run total.
I’m planting my flag this year on the hill that has Kirilloff returning top 75 value for fantasy.
Bonus pick: Seiya Suzuki (OF – CHC)
Jo Adell (OF – LAA) ADP 227
A few more home runs for Adell this spring, and he’ll be moving well inside the top 200. You should be excited about the performance that Adell has been putting on so far. But it would be best if you had been excited before he started his spring performance.
Remember that this guy was a top 10 prospect not too long ago, and the track record of top 10 prospects performing at a high level in the big leagues is pretty high.
We just get impatient if it doesn’t happen right away.
It’s easy to forget that Adell is only 22 and still has sky-high potential.
There are concerns still, of course.
The strikeout rate needs to be closer to 22 percent than 30 percent for sustained success, and the groundball rate is far too high.
But one thing we’ve seen with hitters is that fixing a groundball issue can be an easy adjustment.
Just ask Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, DH – TOR)
Adell has superstar potential still, and at a post-200 pick, he’s well worth the gamble as an OF4.
Bonus pick: Nathaniel Lowe (1B – TEX)
Hunter Dozier (1B, 3B, OF – KC) ADP 388
2022 is Dozier’s last chance to prove that he belongs to be part of the Royals’ plans as a late-career breakout player a few years back.
And ever since the season that Dozier had in 2019, I’ve been on him as a repeat breakout guy.
2020 wasn’t it, but the walk rate remained.
2021 was terrible, as the strikeout rate rose and the walk rate dipped, along with his .216 average.
But yes, I’m back again one last time with the 30-year-old.
Why?
I buy the walk rate to trend back up to around the 10 percent mark, but most importantly for me is that Dozier still smokes the ball.
When looking at sleepers, we want to find players who barrel the ball and have a higher average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Dozier checks those boxes.
Last season, he had a 5.5 Brls/PA%, which tied him with Alex Verdugo and Mookie Betts (OF – LAD) in that statistic. His 42.2 hard-hit rate was 65th in baseball right behind José Ramírez (3B – CLE) and Randy Arozarena (OF – TB), and his 89.9 average exit velocity puts him just outside the top 50 in the league.
For deeper leagues, especially at third base, Dozier is intriguing with his profile.
Bonus pick: Evan Longoria (3B – SF)
Steven Kwan (OF – CLE) ADP 556
Ah yes, a deep-league option!
It’s understandable why Cleveland has spent less than $1 million in free agency this offseason. The franchise is only worth $1.3 billion, so owners must pinch pennies. Right, Paul Dolan?
With the Guardians keeping up their embarrassing ways, it opens everyday playing time in the outfield for a few guys.
Myles Straw (OF – CLE) is the most notable, but don’t sleep on Kwan.
Kwan is already 24 and has a fantastic approach at the plate (11.7 BB% and 6.7K% in 120 plate appearances in Triple-A last year). In Double-A, he posted a 10 BB% and 10.4 K%.
What’s more, Kwan slashed .324/.405/.522 across both levels with 12 home runs.
Is Kwan going to be an All-Star? Well, no. But he can find his way to 500 plate appearances and 15 home runs with an average hovering around .285 with 8 to 10 steals.
That’s valuable in deeper leagues, plus we love an opportunity in fantasy.
Kwan is the poster person for an opportunity this year.
Bonus pick: Keston Hiura (1B – MIL)
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
