In just the last few weeks, there have been big signings, big trades, and significant extensions. All of which have significantly shifted the fantasy football landscape, including rankings. Below are a few players that will either outperform or disappoint you (in PPR scoring leagues) relative to their current Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) for PPR leagues.
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Quarterbacks
Overrated: Trey Lance (SF): QB13
Trey Lance’s current ECR of 13th is a surprise considering he’ll be entering the 2022 season as a pseudo-rookie. Lance was only in on a little over 100 plays between throws and runs in his first season. On those plays, however, he did show promise with an 8.5 yards-per-attempt and five passing touchdowns to go along with 168 yards on the ground and another score. All of this to say Lance’s ceiling is high but ranking him as a borderline QB1 in fantasy scoring is optimistic – and I say this as a 49er fan! There is an excellent foundation for him to succeed between the players around him and quarterback-whisperer / coach Kyle Shanahan.
Underrated: Zach Wilson (NYJ): QB21
The beginning of Zach Wilson’s rookie year was a disaster. Wilson threw just four touchdowns but nine (!) interceptions through his first five games and didn’t look worthy of being the second overall pick. Then the bye week happened, Wilson got hurt the following week, and he didn’t play again until Week 12. But for the last seven games, he threw five touchdowns, ran for four more, and only turned the ball over three times. In terms of fantasy scoring, he ranked 15th amongst quarterbacks in that span and provided a glimmer of hope that he will outperform his 2022 ECR rank of 21st. Another reason for hope is having a healthy Elijah Moore. Drafted last year with Wilson, Moore scored five touchdowns in his previous five games before an injury took him out. He and Wilson’s positive play never entirely overlapped, so here’s hoping it will work for 2022.
Running Backs
Overrated: Cam Akers (LAR): RB7
Cam Akers is a great running back. Drafted in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, he was tasked with following Todd Gurley as the top Rams running back, a position that has been very good for fantasy managers. He looked like he could handle it towards the end of his rookie season, too, when he gained more than half of his season-long rushing total of 625 yards in just his last five games. He was high on mock drafts for 2021 until he tore his Achilles and was expected to miss the entire season. But as we know, the Rams Super Bowl run allowed him an opportunity to come back where he reclaimed his spot on the depth chart.
Rankers are still viewing Akers as a Todd Gurley clone – a workhorse back on a good offense who will be at the top of the league in touches. Currently, his ECR is seventh. That’s high for a running back on a team that ranked just 19th in rush attempts last year now that they have a quarterback they trust to throw it. Furthermore, the two Rams running backs that stayed healthy – Darrell Henderson Jr. and Sony Michel – saw just 73 targets combined, which would have been good for just the fourth-highest on the team.
Underrated: Melvin Gordon (FA): RB34
Even without a team, I’m confident Melvin Gordon will outperform his current ECR of 34th. He’s coming off back-to-back seasons of at least 900 yards rushing and eight touchdowns. The second of those seasons were in a committee with rookie Javonte Williams (who had similar numbers), which shows that Gordon can produce even in a timeshare.
If he were to go back to Denver, you could expect more of the same as it’s clear the Broncos have figured out the equation to get maximum value out of two running backs. If Gordon goes somewhere else, there’s no reason he can’t keep putting up the same numbers he has. For example, he’s rushed for at least 885 yards and eight touchdowns in five of his last six seasons, and the only reason he didn’t in all six was because he missed a month in 2019. Gordon’s an old-school player and has a nose for the end zone. He’ll have value.
Wide Receiver
Overrated: Amari Cooper (CLE): WR26
Amari Cooper’s current ECR of 26 might have been justifiable if he stayed in Dallas. He averaged over 1,000 yards in his three seasons as a Cowboy and scored 21 touchdowns. He’ll be hard-pressed to replicate those numbers in Cleveland even with just acquired Deshaun Watson. Cooper will be leaving a Cowboys offense top-five in pass attempts in 2021 to a bottom-five one in Cleveland. Ranking 26th in ECR means Cooper is in the WR2/WR3 range, which is still a situation I’d avoid for my fantasy team.
Underrated: Darnell Mooney (CHI): WR29
Darnell Mooney had a mini-breakout despite the Bears’ offense being a mess for most of the season. He topped 1,000 yards while becoming the top target for both Justin Fields and Andy Dalton and finished as a low-end WR2 in PPR scoring leagues. And so far, everything this off-season points to an even better season in 2022. The Bears let former top-target Allen Robinson leave via free agency. They also brought in a new – and hopefully more competent – coaching staff, including offensive coordinator Luke Getsy from the Packers. It should help Justin Fields to have a coach with experience working with Aaron Rodgers. All signs are pointing towards Mooney outperforming his current ECR of 29th.
Tight End
Overrated: Pat Freiermuth (PIT): TE10
While Kyle Pitts deservedly earned the title of best rookie tight end last year, Pat Freiermuth wasn’t far behind. The second-round pick by the Steelers quickly led the tight end room in Pittsburgh, totaling 60 catches for 497 yards and seven touchdowns, the latter of which was second on the team behind Diontae Johnson. Freiermuth finished 13th among tight ends in fantasy scoring, right on the fringe of being a TE1.
But that was then, and this is now. Pittsburgh said goodbye to Ben Roethlisberger and welcomed Mitchell Trubisky as their starter. Trubisky isn’t a huge downgrade, if at all, from the 2021 version of Roethlisberger, but he’s also not a massive upgrade. And while there will be more targets open up thanks to the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster, I’d still temper your expectations for Freiermuth this year.
Underrated: Evan Engram (JAX): TE19
Here’s to hoping all Evan Engram needs is a new start to be relevant again. His production in the last four seasons never matched his rookie season totals of 64 receptions, 722 yards, and six touchdowns. In Jacksonville, despite a plethora of receivers being signed in recent days, Engram will be a significant part of an offense led by new coach Doug Pederson. When he was in Philadelphia, Pederson used tight ends quite a bit. The position saw 200 targets multiple times during Pederson’s tenure. If Engram can get in on that gravy train, he’ll be a solid TE2 / streaming option instead of the 19th ranked tight end in ECR.
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