Breece Hall enters the NFL Draft process competing for the top spot at running back on many people’s boards. Looking at Hall’s analytical profile from a macro perspective, he checks several boxes before even discussing the nuances of his game.

Hall was productive even as a freshman, rolling up 1,149 total yards on 209 touches. His three seasons at Iowa State culminated in a 95th percentile college dominator (43.9%, per Playerprofiler) with 5.8 yards per carry (67th percentile) and a 10.7% target share (81st percentile). Let’s discuss how the soon-to-be 21-year-old prospect’s skills stack up and how his game can translate to the NFL and fantasy football. 

Breece Hall 2022 NFL Draft Profile

Breece Hall College Statistics

Breece Hall Dynasty Fantasy Analysis

Hall’s talent as a rusher and his breakaway ability are evident in his elusive metrics and as soon as you turn on the film. While he can make people miss behind the line of scrimmage with a jump cut if needed, that’s not the highlight of his game. His calling card is the ability to make people miss on the second level and his lightning-fast second gear once he reaches it. Hall was a top-22 running back in breakaway run rate and top 10 in rushes of 15 or more yards in his final two collegiate seasons (PFF). This explosive ability also showed up at the combine, as he logged a 94th percentile or higher 40-yard-dash time (96th percentile), speed score (98th), and burst score (94th). 

Hall’s production is even more impressive because he did this behind a subpar offensive line in two of his three seasons at Iowa State. Per Football Outsiders, the Cyclones ranked outside the top 55 collegiate teams in the three pillar offensive line metrics I look at. It is slightly concerning that while his breakaway run metrics are off the charts, his Yards after contact per attempt fell in each season. This isn’t a massive red flag on his profile, but it does speak to his skillset. He’s an elusive rusher, but he’s not in the same tackle-breaking echelon as someone like Javonte Williams was as a prospect. Dynasty managers should still breathe easily even if Hall lands on a team with an average to a below-average offensive line that executes a zone rushing attack.

Hall has the innate ability to get small through the hole and flashes a good feel and flow on zone rushing plays. In his collegiate career, 73.8% of his rushing attempts came on zone play calls. With much of the league running schemes that lean heavily on inside and outside zone runs, Hall should transition nicely to the NFL game.

With all of that said, there are areas of Hall’s game that need to be improved for him to reach his ceiling in the NFL and for fantasy football purposes. The general sentiment is that Hall is an accomplished pass catcher and that his three-down ability is unquestioned. These facets of his profile pose the most important questions for me. Hall averaged 27.3 receptions per season at Iowa State, which is reassuring, and his target share did increase yearly (5.8%, 7.2%, 9.9%). Those are checkmarks in the plus column for him, but if we peer closer at his efficiency with this volume, projecting his passing game role in the NFL becomes more complicated. 

He never ranked higher than 43rd in yards per route run among FBS running backs with 20 or more targets in his three seasons. In 2020, he was one of the most inefficient backs in the sample size, with his target volume bottoming out with 0.73 yards per route run. Hall was never used in the slot or on the boundary above 5.3% of his snaps. Most of his targets came on dump-offs as a check-down option out of the backfield. Yes, many backs operate in this fashion in the passing game in the NFL, but Hall shouldn’t be projected to be a difference-making option through the air at this stage of his career.

He could lose snaps on passing downs transitioning to the NFL, especially if a team already has a specialty back on the depth chart operating in this role. Hall’s pass protection chops diminished as his collegiate career wore on. At Iowa State, his pass-blocking rate declined each season (33.1%, 23.4%, 18.7%), as did his pass blocking grades per PFF (63.4, 61.1, 44.1). This could result from the team wanting to get him more involved in the aerial attack, as his routes also increased each year, but it could also be the fallout of his issues with blocking. In 2021 he ranked 76th out of 120 FBS running backs (with 50 or more pass-blocking snaps) in PFF pass-blocking grades. He allowed a quarterback hurry or pressure on 11.6% of his collegiate pass-blocking snaps. While pass protection doesn’t make the fantasy stat sheet, his shortcomings in this area could limit his snaps and targets unless he cleans it up. 

Player Comp – Lamar Miller with better draft capital. 

Miller is a 1:1 size (5’11” 218 lbs) and speed (89th percentile or higher 40-yard-dash, speed, and burst scores) comparison. Miller is remembered as a disappointment for his time in Houston, but he was top 20 (among all rushers with 50 or more attempts) in breakaway run rate and Yards after contact per attempt in three of his first seven years in the NFL. He was a consistent top-24 fantasy running back (RB14, RB8, RB16, RB18, RB23) from 2014 to 2018. 

Landing Spot and Dynasty Outlook

Breece Hall lands with the New York Jets and should get all the volume he can handle. Michael Carter was immensely productive when healthy and given the opportunity last year, but this type of draft capital speaks volumes. New York deployed inside and outside zone runs on 60% of their rushing snaps last year (per PFF). These run designs are Hall’s bread and butter, as he registered a 36% missed tackles forced rate on outside zone runs in 2021 (per PFF). The Jets should have no issues springing him into space with an offensive line that was 11th in open field yards last season (per Football Outsiders). Hall remains a top ten dynasty running back.

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