Dynasty Player Profile: Jerry Jeudy (2022 Fantasy Football)

The 2022 NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and we’ll have you covered with everything dynasty fantasy football as you prepare for your startup and rookie drafts. We’ll have many dynasty veteran profiles like this one along with rookie profiles, strategy discussion, and featured rankings in our upcoming 2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit.

2021 Production

Career Contextualization

Jerry Jeudy (WR - DEN) was drafted by the Denver Broncos in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft after an extremely productive career at Alabama. Unfortunately for Jeudy, the NFL has not been so kind as to provide him with proven quarterback play to take full advantage of his exemplary route-running.

So although he finished as Denver's leading receiver in his first season with 856 receiving yards and 52 catches on 110 targets, the path to get there was not pretty. He was 57th in points per game and 45th in points scored. He actually scored fewer fantasy points than Tim Patrick despite playing one more game than the former undrafted free agent.

The big issue was that Jeudy was not used heavily inside the 10-yard line. Patrick out-targeted him 8-2 from inside the 10. The other glaring issue was inaccurate throws. Only 59% of his targets and air yards were deemed catchable -- the third-worst mark in the league.

But the fact that there were so many targets and opportunities present demonstrated Jeudy's talent and was a reason to believe he could improve in Year 2 with a semblance of upgraded quarterback play.

And things looked great for Jeudy early on, as he came out the gates red-hot with six catches for 72 yards in Week 1 (19% target share). But alas, the breakout season was to be delayed after he suffered a high ankle sprain that put him on ice till Week 8.

He would go on to lead the Broncos in targets the rest of the way -- 16% target share -- but it was by an extremely small margin. The targets were essentially flat across the board between all receivers and tight ends. Jeudy also saw only three targets in the red zone while operating more from the slot than he did his rookie season (66% versus 33%).

Current Situation

Entering Year 3, Jeudy finally has a quarterback who can take full advantage of his ability to separate from defenders -- 96th percentile separation percentage in 2021 -- with Russell Wilson taking the reins.

With Sutton and Patrick operating from the outside, Jeudy figures to become Wilson's go-to target in the slot. Jeudy's efficiency metrics should also see a massive boost now that he's catching passes from a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, but it remains to be seen if Jeudy will play an ancillary role as a red-zone threat.

General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career

Obviously, exchanging Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater for Wilson is great for Jeudy, but we have to remember that he is still an unproven fantasy commodity. Great route-running and separation skills aside, he hasn't scored many fantasy points the last two seasons.

And that's not the case with every Denver receiver, because Patrick's production last two seasons earned him a three-year, $34.5 million contract extension.

Even so, Jeudy should easily experience his best NFL season to date in 2022, but it may not be as great as some die-hard Jeudy stans would care to admit. There are a lot of weapons in Denver, and predicting Wilson's best option on a week-to-week basis was often a challenge when it was only between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

As with those Seahawks receivers, there are going to be inconsistent weeks from Jeudy. And his lack of red-zone usage makes him more susceptible to bust games without having a touchdown opportunity to fall back on.

I'd be in the market to sell high on Jeudy's projection. Because if he doesn't meet or exceed lofty expectations after Year 3, his value is going to drop big-time.

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