Things are a bit frantic in MLB land. Now that the owners and players have agreed to a new CBA, free agency is underway and every team is gearing up for a shortened Spring Training in preparation for Opening Day on April 7. With the season fast approaching in three weeks, it’s time to begin your draft prep if you haven’t already.
The best way to avoid losing your draft and having a team destined to bottom out during the season is to avoid taking players who appear to be heavily overvalued at their draft price. As such, our featured pundits are here to identify which players they believe are too costly at their ADP (average draft position). With that being said, the following players aren’t meant to be avoided at all costs and can present more value if they’re taken at a discount.
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Q1. What one hitter stands out as being the most overvalued based on consensus ADP and why?
Starling Marte (OF – NYM): ADP – 18th Hitter & 24th Overall
“Marte is being overvalued for one reason — SBs — the ever-elusive category that raises ADPs more than any other. While he is a terrific baseball player, I would be very hesitant to draft him as the 18th hitter off the board. Marte is 34 years old, is not unfamiliar with IL stints, will likely top out at 12-15 HRs, has topped 90 runs just once in his career, has surpassed 80 RBIs twice and his .306 average last season was his second-best ever. He is also joining the New York Mets, a team that has not had a 30-SB player in the past seven seasons. You may ask, well who would have stolen 30 bases then? Is that really fair? Brandon Nimmo, who had a 92nd percentile sprint speed in 2021, stole just five bases. There are other ways to acquire SBs. Marte is just too expensive.”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)
Mookie Betts (2B/OF – LAD): ADP – 10th Hitter & 12th Overall
“Betts was excellent, if a bit lucky, compared to his expected stats in 2020. Then, he dealt with a bone spur on his hip last year. As a result, he inefficiently stole only 10 bases in 15 attempts. Furthermore, his .264 batting average and .487 slugging outpaced his .262 xBA and .443 xSLG, according to FanGraphs. Will his hip give him problems in 2022? I don’t know, which means a first-round ADP is too rich for my blood.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)
Byron Buxton (OF – MIN): ADP – 39th Hitter & 57th Overall
“I love the skill set Buxton offers, but at an ADP of 57, it’s tough to justify him as a top 60 player based on how many games he plays annually. Sure, there’s a 30/20 season in there potentially. However, I’d rather have a bat like Randy Arozarena, who’s being drafted after Buxton, but actually had a 20/20 season last year.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Andrew Vaughn (1B/OF – CWS): ADP – 128th Hitter & 208th Overall
“The worst thing you can be in a Tony La Russa managed team is young and unproven. Vaughn currently has a sub-200 ADP, which doesn’t seem too painful, but he is without a position to start the year. I happened to be at the White Sox’s camp on Tuesday to witness Vaughn working out at second base (video on my Twitter here). The team also signed Josh Harrison. Vaughn offensively has struggled, has no defensive home, and current Roster Resource depth charts have Vaughn on the bench to Adam Engel and Josh Harrison. At this point, I’d rather you take the risk scooping Spencer Torkelson (ADP 220), who has a good chance to break camp and get a full season of at-bats.”
– Christopher Welsh (In This League)
Daulton Varsho (C/OF – ARI): ADP – 74th Hitter & 116th Overall
“Catchers are overvalued to begin with and an ADP of 116 for Varsho seems crazy. I get that people are intrigued by his power/speed potential, but he isn’t even assured of playing every day. He’ll back up Carson Kelly behind the plate and may not be a regular starter in the outfield if the D-Backs add another hitter.”
– Scott Youngson (Fantasy Mutant)
Q2. What starting pitcher stands out as being the most overvalued based on consensus ADP and why?
Sandy Alcantara (MIA): ADP – 13th Starting Pitcher & 42nd Overall
“Alcantara is a volume-based starter, as he combined for over 400 IPs over his last two full seasons (sans shortened 2020), which is fantastic and valuable. But I am certainly not one to choose a volume-based pitcher to be my fantasy ace, and you should not either. Alcantara has yet to reach one strikeout per inning in his career and is coming off a career-best ERA and WHIP, with all of the top projection systems expecting some ERA and WHIP regression, which I expect as well. He has yet to reach 10 wins because he plays for the Marlins, and I do not expect that to change much this season, as their roster still falls far behind the rest of the NL East. If you want inning eater Sandy Alcantara on your roster so bad as the SP13, why not just draft Adam Wainwright at SP50, who pitched 0.2 innings more than Alcantara did in 2021? Wainwright had a better ERA (3.05 to 3.19), virtually the same WHIP (1.06 to 1.07), and while he falls short in Ks (174 to 201), his 17 wins to Alcantara’s nine more than makes up the difference. See the issue here?”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)
Aaron Nola (PHI): ADP – 11th Starting Pitcher & 37th Overall
“Gamers backing Nola are pounding the table for his advanced metrics. However, I won’t completely excuse his 4.63 ERA. Sure, he should bounce back due to stranding base runners at a better rate. Still, his groundball rate plummeted to a career-low (40.5%), and his homer rate jumped to a career-high 1.30 HR/9. In addition, he used his fastball at his highest rate since 2017, an odd pitch-mix-change decision given that he recorded the second-highest ERA of his career. Thus, Nola should be better this year, but blindly projecting him to his 2021 ERA estimators is ill-advised.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)
Zack Wheeler (PHI): ADP – 8th Starting Pitcher & 25th Overall
“Wheeler earned his eighth overall SP ADP after an incredible 2021 season. However, he’s been dealing with some shoulder issues this offseason and has a history of underwhelming. I’m more confident in Charlie Morton (who may be old enough to be Zack Wheeler’s dad) coming off a broken leg at SP26, than Wheeler off one breakout campaign.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Shane Baz (TB): ADP – 40th Starting Pitcher & 129th Overall
“Don’t get me wrong, Baz is an excellent young pitcher as he showed at the end of last season. He’s still very young, however, and the Rays will be extremely careful with him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he only throws around 100 innings this season. If so, his ADP of 129 is way too high considering some of the pitchers going after him.”
– Scott Youngson (Fantasy Mutant)
Overvalued Closer
Camilo Doval (SF): ADP – 16th Relief Pitcher & 168th Overall
“Doval ended the 2021 season as the Giants’ closer, saving four games between the regular season and the postseason. In theory, he is in line to be the closer, but the rumor on the street is that Doval may play more of a high-leverage role. This would get him some saves, and he could lead the team at season’s end, but Jake McGee or Tyler Rogers may be the early recipients of that role. Doval’s ADP has him coming up just outside the top 150. I think he’s a little risky without a locked-down job to spend high capital on as your top or second closer. This is the reason why the position has been pushed up, and I would just rather avoid an under 25-year-old closer, with little experience on a playoff-bound team as an asset I depend on for one category.”
– Christopher Welsh (In This League)
Thank you to the experts for giving us their overrated players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for advice all year round.
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