The big goal of every fantasy draft is the find the guys who can return a hefty profit on their average draft position (ADP). You can dominate your draft by identifying which guys have the highest chance of providing the most value every time you’re up to pick. This becomes more important the deeper you go into the draft, as late-round players will either be duds who you’ll drop within a few weeks, decent contributors who outperform expectations and stick around on your roster for most of the season, or studs who can boost your title chances.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: View cheat sheets, busts & mistakes to avoid

To help you crush your league and find the next big sleepers, we have polled 19 experts on which low-cost hitters and starting pitchers they thought had the highest chance of breaking out. We also asked them each to provide some insight on who their favorite sleeper is and why. Read on to see who the industry thinks are this year’s top sleepers! Also, check out who everyone voted for here.

Please keep in mind that not all of the following players will end up providing huge returns on their draft cost, so draft responsibly and do not overspend unless you feel confident in a particular player based on your own research. Also, the table is here to show who our voters think as a group has the highest chance of being a breakout sleeper. The write-ups then highlight a particular athlete that a specific analyst feels is very undervalued.

Note: Hitter and pitcher ADP values are as of March 28. 

Top Consensus Sleepers (Poll of 19 Experts)

_{Players who received one vote were: Frank Schwindel, Dominic Smith, Julio Rodriguez, Alex Kirilloff, Andrew Vaughn, Lane Thomas, Max Kepler, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Seiya Suzuki, Jo Adell, Michael Brantley, Kyle Hendricks, Cristian Javier, Joe Ryan, Jesus Luzardo, Hunter Greene, Jordan Montgomery, Jon Gray, Josiah Gray}

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Q. Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy sleeper and why?

Oniel Cruz (SS – PIT) 
“Fresh off a 2021 campaign in which he hit .311 with 18 HRs and 19 SBs over just 70 games between Double-A, Triple-A, and the Majors, the 23-year-old Pirates prospect has continued to rake this spring. Standing 6’7″ and 210 lbs., Cruz isn’t your typical shortstop, and his statistical potential is also unusual — in a good way. You simply don’t see young middle infielders with his blend of power and speed very often, and the contact skills should also be solid enough to provide a serviceable batting average from the get-go. Cruz may begin the season in the minors, but he’s too good to be there long, and should quickly make up for lost time once he does get the call.”
– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)

“The 6’7” SS, Oniel Cruz, demonstrated his 80-grade power and elite speed last year throughout Double-A and Triple-A. His 17 HRs and 18 SBs led to his promotion to the MLB. While Cruz might have to begin the season in Triple-A, it won’t be long before he is back up and hitting 118 MPH rockets from his shoelaces as he has shown this spring. The Pirates may not be an offensive juggernaut, but going just inside the top-250 overall, Cruz can contribute enough across the board to produce league-winning value.”
– Nate Marcum (Fantasy In Frames)

“Oneil Cruz is a lanky 23-year-old that will start at shortstop for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season. He offers a high ceiling of both power and stolen bases and he can hit any pitches, in or out of the strike zone. I watched him reach down for a pitch that was low and inside and send it for a ride. Great bat speed for a tall player. A 20/20 season is not out of the question.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)

Triston McKenzie (SP – CLE) 
“Cleveland Guardians pitcher Triston McKenzie is my favorite starter ranked outside the top 60. The right-hander disappointed in 2021, posting a 4.95 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 1,18 WHIP, 4.35 BB:9, and 136 strikeouts over 120 innings. His 11.7 BB% and 1.6 HR:9 spiked his ERA from 3.24 in 2020 to 4.95 last year. The 24-year-old’s mistakes were command-driven, and the upside is there for McKenzie as long as he can keep the walks down. He displayed how unhittable he can be at times, owning a 1.76 ERA and 48:5 K:BB through seven starts in August and September. McKenzie can rack up the strikeouts, posting an impressive 27.5 K%, and if he kept the walks down and the ball in the yard, the 24-year-old has the upside to smash his current ECR ranking.”
– Brad Camara (RotoBaller)

“Triston McKenzie struggled mightily in the first half of last season and forced his way back to Triple-A to iron out his mechanics. From July through the rest of the season, however, he pitched well posting a 4.17 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 9 Ks per nine in 77 innings. He has the stuff, seems to be maturing and could leap towards the front of the Guardians’ rotation by the end of the season.”
– Scott Youngson (Fantasy Mutant)

Nate Lowe (1B – TEX) 
“Lowe has flashed his immense potential at times, including the first week of the 2021 season when he collected three HRs and 14 RBIs in the first five games. He predictably slowed down and had a decent but uninspiring final line of .264/.357/.415 with 18 HRs, 72 RBIs, 75 Rs, and 8 SBs. He may be the coveted ‘one adjustment away’ sleeper who simply needs to lift the ball more to unlock his power. A 6’4” slugger shouldn’t have a 54% groundball rate. He also needs some lineup support ahead of him. He didn’t have that last year, but now with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in tow, Lowe could produce top-10 fantasy value at a thin first base position.”
– Pierre Camus (RotoBaller)

“I am a sucker for players with a good eye at the plate when looking for sleepers because that is typically one of the biggest issues for possible breakout players, and it can easily derail a player’s season. Nate Lowe doesn’t just have a good eye at the plate, he has a great eye, finishing the 2021 season in the 90th percentile of BB% and 82nd percentile of chase rate, according to Baseball Savant. He also has untapped power with a 91st percentile max exit velocity and 77th percentile average exit velocity, he just has to work on getting the ball in the air more consistently, as his launch angle has dropped considerably year over year since his Major League debut. Going as the 152nd hitter off the board at just 26 years old with a much improved Texas Rangers lineup around him (hello Corey Seager and Marcus Semien), Lowe just needs to make a few adjustments in what is a very strong base to work from and he could be an absolutely huge steal for fantasy teams.”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)

Dominic Smith (1B/OF – NYM) 
“I’ve already written about Patrick Sandoval previously as one of my favorite sleepers this season, so today I’ll mention Mets outfielder Dominic Smith. Smith has gotten off to a great start so far this spring, after reportedly dealing with a torn labrum in his shoulder last season. The left-handed-hitting Smith was terrific in 2020, hitting .316 with a .993 OPS, but then struggled immensely last season, specifically against right-handers. Smith hit only .218 against righties last year after hitting .331 against them in 2020. Now feeling healthy and stronger, there is a clear path for Smith on an improved Mets team to return significant value this season at his current ADP of 318. ”
– Lucas Spence (Pitcher List)

Consensus Busts from Over 20 Experts

Patrick Sandoval (SP – LAA) 
“It might be cheating to call Sandoval a sleeper, as the lefty has garnered plenty of preseason draft love. Yet he still checks off every box as a big-time breakout candidate. Fueled by a lethal slider and an even better changeup, the 25-year-old posted a 3.39 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and 26.1% strikeout rate in the Angels’ rotation. His 13.3% swinging-strike rate ranks ninth among all qualified starters, and everyone ahead of him is going more than 100 picks earlier.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)

Alex Cobb (SP – SF) 
“This offseason, the San Francisco Giants rounded out their 2022 starting rotation by signing veteran starter Alex Cobb. He is coming off a bounce-back season in which he dealt with injuries, but performed well when healthy. He started 18 games and went 8-3 with a 3.76 ERA and a stellar 2.92 FIP for the Los Angeles Angels. The right-hander set a new career-high with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and his 37.6 hard-hit percentage also was a new career-best. In addition, the right-hander boasts substantial groundball numbers and reasonable walk rates. The caveat with Cobb is his health, but he is heading to a better defensive team with the Giants and could be a difference-maker with a superb ROI as the SP75 in ADP.”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)

Julio Rodriguez (SEA – OF) 
“Call me crazy, but Mitch Haniger is actually the odd man out. Or could it be Julio Rodriguez, in what would be a haul of a return? Either way, there is only one RF spot and the Mariners are in a great position. For fantasy purposes though, one name comes to mind in comparison to J-Rod, and that is Juan Soto. The only differences are Soto was a year ahead (blame COVID) and Rodriguez offers more speed — perhaps considerably more. The approach and contact skills are ELITE. Rarely do you see players at this age not phased by promotions to better pitching. In Rodriguez’s case (as was with Soto), you can’t tell the difference between levels in his stat lines. Love young hitters with a patient approach (14.1 BB%), who don’t chase (18.0 K%), and hit to all fields (43.1%/20.4%/36.5%). This is a five-tool monster that will be a perennial top-five overall fantasy pick and will help your team this year.”
– Andy Singleton (Expand The Boxscore)

Andrew Vaughn (CWS – 1B/OF) 
“Vaughn is my pick for the biggest fantasy sleeper for hitters outside the ADP of 120. His final stats were below fantasy expectations in 2021. He slashed .235/.309/.396 with 15 home runs and a .705 OPS over 127 games. The 23-year-old has 70-grade power with the upside to be a four-category star. In July of last season, he flashed his potential, slashing .308/.347/.516 with four homers and 12 RBIs over 98 plate appearances. The former No. 2 overall pick struggled to gain consistency after that and found himself on the bench as the season wore down. Vaughn will play every day as he is expected to be Chicago’s primary designated hitter. If he can make the necessary adjustments in 2022, the young slugger is worth taking a flier on and has the upside to smash his current 240th overall ADP.”
– Brad Camara (RotoBaller)

Tommy Pham (OF – CIN) 
“I love Pham as a sleeper this season, especially since he signed with the Cincinnati Reds. He’s coming off a down year where he slashed .229/.340/.383, but that also came with 15 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Pham has elite plate discipline skills and should get a power boost with the move to the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. A 20 HR/10-15 SB/.260 season is in the cards – take advantage before his draft price starts to rise!”
– Lauren Auerbach (Fantrax)

Seiya Suzuki (OF – CHC) 
“I am all in on Cubs OF Seiya Suzuki. He was a monster in Japan, hitting 38 HRs and having almost as many walks as Ks. In OBP leagues, he is a must-draft player, going over .400 back in Japan. He might be the next great Suzuki to play in the majors.”
– Dr. Roto (FullTime Fantasy)

Jo Adell (OF – LAA) 
“Adell is an easy choice for my favorite sleeper among hitters going outside of the top 120. He has an elite prospect pedigree and was once a top prospect in baseball. The shine has worn off quickly as Adell has a career .205/.255/.339 slash with just seven home runs in 272 career plate appearances. Last season, he quietly raised his zone-contact rate by 13 percentage points and his overall contact rate by 12 percentage points. Adell has also completely rid of a leg kick and transitioned to a toe tap to simplify his swing. So far this spring, he has a .969 OPS with two home runs. Adell is the type of player who could vault himself to be a top-50 pick in 2023.”
– Chris Clegg (Fantrax)

Kyle Hendricks (SP – CHC) 
“Hendricks was really, really good from May through July last season (12-1, 2.89 ERA across 17 starts) with his numbers taking a beating primarily due to a couple of ugly outings in April and then August. More of pitch-to-contact guy versus punch-out producer, the Cubs have made a few moves to strengthen their defense, which should only help Hendricks. There’s risk, but a more dialed-in Hendricks should help the ratios without hurting the ERA too much, making him an attractive rotational depth piece at his current ADP.”
– Mark Ross (Athlon Sports)

Cristian Javier (SP/RP – HOU) 
“With Lance McCullers already dealing with an injury, Javier has a real chance to be a stater most of the year of the Astros. Javier has electric stuff, but was still very green last year in his first shot at the majors. Still, he threw 101 innings and struck out 130 hitters with a 3.55 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has 150 innings in him this season and he could be an absolute steal at 252 overall in consensus ADP.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

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Thank you to all the experts for naming their consensus sleepers. You can view each expert’s picks below and be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our podcast, which is also available below.

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