As we start to move into fantasy baseball draft season, the conversation about “value” shifts into the spotlight. It’s arguably the most popular and important topic because it truly separates the player pool.
We generally know which players are best. We also know which players carry risk. Balancing them against each other is how we arrive at the critical point. That is, when to select said player.
It’s more than that.
The average draft position will show the general “cost of acquisition” for a player, but we can take a snapshot of that value today and hold onto it for a future installment. This is a deeper way to play the game. To follow the path that the value takes as we move closer to Opening Day.
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Players ECR Likes More
The immediate takeaway from the group that the ECR likes more than those who are drafting is risk. Simply put, most players on this list had been injured in the past or carry concerns for the upcoming season -- such as Byron Buxton, Eloy Jimenez, and George Springer, to name a few. This isn't surprising. Experts are ranking them based on what they could -- and, quite frankly, should -- produce in 2022, while people, at the moment, are opting for alternatives.
This is one of the main reasons why we look at the dataset over a period of time. As we get closer to the start of the season, we will probably get some "assurances" of health, and that will have a positive impact on ADP, where the ECR most likely has accounted for this. Conversely, the gap may widen on others where there remains no boost of confidence.
The top of the list is a prime example of taking a cautious approach due to injury. Jacob deGrom has been widely considered among the best arms in baseball for the past few years, but a stint on the Injured List last year has dropped his stock. Will it plummet further? Most likely, no. The ECR recognizes that he is still comparatively better than most other options-he is in the top-20, after all-and only news of a setback will push him lower on the ADP list.
Another name that jumps off the page is Christian Yelich. The former National League MVP had an uncharacteristically bad year in 2021 and he is paying for it in both rankings. The interesting note is that, despite how low he sits in the ECR, it is still more optimistic than his ADP. People aren't buying, even at a discount.
The common theme for this group is quite clear: risk. It is not, however, the only element. There is a definitive line between how players are viewed even in their healthiest state. Cedric Mullins II, Jesse Winker, and Bryan Reynolds all had All-Star seasons via their highest total of plate appearances, yet it doesn't matter. Not to fantasy managers in a draft, anyway. The experts, however, are relative believers.
Players ECR Likes Less
Observations
Whenever we look at two competing arguments -- such as the ECR vs. ADP -- we tend to find that the narratives for each side are also opposites. That is actually not the case here. After combing through the first group of players -- where ECR outranks ADP -- injury risks were everywhere. Logic would dictate that this group would be filled with consistency and "safety." Not so fast.
Mike Trout tops the list after spending basically a decade at the top of the ADP, itself. His fall has been due to injuries, but talk of his age finally catching up to him is not doing his value any favors. It appears to not matter in a draft. Someone, somewhere, is typically viewing Trout as a discount at the end of the first round, and he isn't making it past that point.
It feels like a necessity to highlight Shohei Ohtani's name, but not because of the massive discrepancy in ECR vs. ADP. It's to explain the most likely reason why this is happening. ECR can only account for so much -- the standard fantasy baseball league -- while fantasy managers who are actually making a selection are considering their specific formats. Most likely, Ohtani has more value than most experts can rank -- which does not mean he is overlooked. The bottom line is that Ohtani remains a unique case.
Finally, there's one more group of names that follows a common thread and make their inclusion in this section quite obvious. Closers and highly-touted prospects are always going to carry a higher ADP than ECR because of the nature of assembling a roster that competes against others without overlap. Closers are finite. Prospects -- or young stars with potential like Wander Franco -- will be highly-sought by numerous people in a snake draft. If you want one, you have to pay a higher price than their actual rankings.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.