Busts are generally players who drastically fail to live up to their average draft position (ADP). The earlier a bust is taken, the higher the chance is that he can wreck your season. Therefore, a great way to mitigate potentially losing your season before it starts is to do your best to avoid the athletes who carry the most risk early and play it safe.

To help prevent you from getting trapped into taking these risky players early, we have polled 21 experts on which hitter and pitcher have the biggest chance to implode and perform well below their draft price. They were also asked to shed some light on who their overall biggest bust for 2022 is. Keep reading to see who you should avoid at their current ADP. Also, check out who everyone voted for here.

Remember, none of the following players are guys you should avoid at all costs. The purpose of the table is to show who our voters think as a group has a high chance of failing to return value at their current ADP. The following write-ups then highlight a particular athlete that a specific analyst feels is very overvalued.

Note: Hitter and pitcher ADP values are as of March 24. 

Top Consensus Busts (Poll of 21 Experts)

_{Players who received one vote were: Nolan Arenado, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Wander Franco, Fernando Tatis Jr., Cody Bellinger, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Jose Berrios, Jacob deGrom, Teoscar Hernandez}

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Q. Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust and why?

Robbie Ray (SP – SEA) 
“Ray engineered a one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays into an amazing season of career-highs in leading the league in ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. He signed a five-deal with the Seattle Mariners during the offseason and the move to a more pitcher-friendly division may seem like an advantage, but I still can’t trust Ray. He had his ups and downs with control and health throughout his career. He walked 6.9 percent of batters last season compared to his 12.9 percent from 2017-2020, and his 193.1 innings were a career-high. His 3.69 FIP was a run worse than his 2.84 ERA. Regression is coming and it’s never a good idea to pay for a career season.”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)

“I won’t begrudge any optimists for believing in Robbie Ray, but I can’t buy the breakout as a top-50 pick. While it’s great that the southpaw finally improved his walk rate to 6.7%, the career 10.3% mark still worries me too much to trust him as a staff anchor. Last year’s MLB-high 90.1% strand rate will also fall back to earth, so don’t dismiss the 30-year-old’s ERA and WHIP floor.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)

“I just can’t get there with Robbie Ray at his ADP. While it’s not hard to see him maintaining some of the gains he made in 2021 after taking a more aggressive approach to hitters, his .268 BABIP and 90.1% LOB scream regression. Continued vulnerability to the long ball (1.54 HR/9) won’t do his ratios any favors either.”
– Kyle Bishop (RotoBaller)

Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR) 
“Outside of his two seasons as a Giant, Gausman has been a slightly above average starting pitcher. He excelled in San Francisco – a team known for bringing out the best in their pitchers due to an excellent coaching staff and pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Now Gausman returns to the AL East, where he pitched for several seasons as an Oriole, and he gets to face three of last year’s top nine offenses in terms of wRC+ last season multiple times (Rays, Red Sox, Yankees). He’s currently being drafted as an SP2 with an ADP around 60. I’ll take a hard pass on him that early.”
– Scott Youngson (Fantasy Mutant)

“Kevin Gausman was awesome last year for the Giants. A lot of pitchers are awesome for the Giants. His 1.04 WHIP and 229 Ks were by far the best of his career (1.28 career WHIP and 179 Ks in 2017) … and now he moves out of the previously-non-DH NL West and goes into the AL East? I’m not buying him as the SP17.”
– Dave McKay (The Fantasy Sports Brain)

“Even though I’ve always had a soft spot for Kevin Gausman, his Achilles heel has always been the American League East. Sure, it’s unfair to say with a sample size limited to one team. But simply put, he has never fared well striking out AL batters. And now he returns. The offense should support him, and he’ll have value, but not for the current price tag he’s commanding.”
– Andy Singleton (Expand The Boxscore)

Austin Riley (1B/3B – ATL) 
“I wrote about Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley as my bust earlier in the year, and I haven’t changed my stance on this pick. He is 33rd among all hitters in the latest FantasyPros expert consensus rankings after having a career year in 2021. Riley slashed .303/.367/.531 with 33 home runs, 107 RBIs, and 91 runs scored over 662 plate appearances last season. The 24-year-old has elite power, but fantasy managers can’t expect Riley to hit .300 again, seeing as how he was a career .283 hitter in the minors, and his BABIP rose 88 points from the previous season. Riley will hit close to 30 homers, but with a career of 7.2 BB%, the Braves’ slugger could see a dip in runs and RBIs, making him more of a pick outside the top 50 overall.”
– Brad Camara (RotoBaller)

“Austin Riley has lost two top hitters from last year’s lineup in Jorge Soler and Freddie Freeman. I see a major regression from last year’s 0.303 batting average to somewhere closer to his 0.272 career batting average. There is no way Riley repeats his 0.368 BABIP and his 0.379 wOBA.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)

Chris Sale (SP – CWS) 
“While Sale may not yet be considered old in baseball years (will be 33 when the season starts), he is on the wrong side of the 30 and has tons of wear and tear on his arm, as he averaged 205 IPs per season during a six-year stretch ranging from 2012-2017. Since then, Sale has gone 158 IPs (2018), 147.1 IPs (2019), 0 IPs (2020) and 42.2 IPs (2021), and his fastball velocity dipped in 2019 and 2021, with several advanced stats not up to par from his best seasons. While Sale is still a very good pitcher and will have some vintage Sale performances, there are just way too many question marks to draft him anywhere near his ADP of SP23, especially with pitchers like Freddy Peralta, Lance Lynn and Kevin Gausman still available.”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)

“Chris Sale will be this season’s biggest bust. When healthy, Sale is an ace, but he will be a bust this year due to health issues. Sale missed all of 2020 after having Tommy John surgery and now has a stress fracture in his rib cage. I’m expecting we see minimal Chris Sale in 2022.”
– Chris Clegg (Fantrax)

Trevor Story (SS – BOS) 
“I have the utmost respect for Story’s talent and think the 29-year-old is a terrific baseball player. But he’s now left the Rockies and Coors Field, and that matters A LOT in fantasy baseball. In his career, here are Story’s home/road splits: .241/.310/.442 with 63 homers and a .752 OPS on the road (370 games) compared to .303/.369/.603 with 95 homers and a .972 OPS at home in Coors Field (375 games). That is a startling chasm between the two and expecting Story to produce similar numbers after leaving Colorado simply isn’t wise. Nolan Arenado proved last season that leaving Coors Field is certainly not a death sentence, but at the same time, his .807 OPS with St. Louis was a significant drop from his peak seasons with the Rockies.”
– Lucas Spence (Pitcher List)

Aaron Nola (SP – PHI) 
“Even with excellent ERA estimators in 2021, I can’t wholly overlook Nola’s 4.63 ERA. He’s the SP12 in ADP, meaning drafters give Nola a complete pass for his unsatisfying 2021 ERA. Yes, I expect Nola to pitch better this year. However, I’m off-put by his career-low 40.5 GB% and career-high 1.30 HR/9, per FanGraphs, and view him as a borderline SP2.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)

Julio Urias (SP – LAD) 
“When choosing the ‘biggest’ bust we have to weigh a player’s ADP, which correlates to fantasy managers’ expectations, against the overall level of disappointment that we expect, and that’s why Urias is my biggest bust for 2022. He is being drafted as the 10th SP with an overall ADP of 28, which means fantasy managers expect him to be their ace. While Urias’ WHIP and ERA are top-10 level, his other metrics aren’t quite there. His K/9, hits allowed and WAR are all below his ‘top-10 peers’ and even some starting pitchers being drafted lower. He’s closer to being Charlie Morton (ADP No. 75) than Zach Wheeler (ADP No. 26) or Shane Bieber (ADP No. 23) and that’s before we factor in that Urias has had injury/durability issues most of his career. Urias has only one season of more than 79 innings pitched, has never thrown 200 IPs in a season and he has never struck out more than 200 in a year. Durability is going to limit his innings pitched and the level of dominance in a season where he needs to build on his 2022, not take a step back. His home runs allowed, ERA and WHIP are all going to regress and I expect closer to 10-12 wins than 18-20 with significant bust potential for Urias this season.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)

Salvador Perez (C/DH – KC) 
“Do you really want to draft a 32-year-old catcher in a bad lineup in the first three rounds of your fantasy draft? Look, I get that Salvy’s 48 bombs were a huge difference-maker last year — and the power uptick actually began in 2020 — but his previous career high was 27, so expecting more than 30-35 homers this season is fairly ambitious. He’s a .260-.270 hitter who doesn’t steal bases, and do you really expect him to repeat last season’s 88 runs or 121 RBIs while hitting between Nicky Lopez and Andrew Benintendi? Perez had never finished among the top-95 players in roto value prior to 2021, and he could be the top fantasy catcher this year and still be a ‘bust’ at his current draft price.”
– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)

Luis Castillo (SP – CIN) 
“In 2021, Castillo pitched to a 6.29 in ERA in April and an 8.04 in May before going on an excellent run through June and July. The electric stuff has always been there, and the strikeout potential moves him up draft boards every offseason. But the bust potential is real, and many fantasy managers weren’t able to withstand the two awful months Castillo had to start the season. There’s a ton of value in the so-called ‘middle tier’ of starting pitchers this season, and I’m much happier waiting to draft pitchers like Shane McClanahan or Carlos Rodon who are going two or more rounds later than Castillo.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)

Wander Franco (3B/SS – TB) 
“Last season, Franco’s 162-game pace had him with only 16 home runs and five stolen bases. That kind of production was on par with Jean Segura, and he is going about 150 picks later in drafts this year. There will be plenty of hitters who also provide the same type (if not better) batting average, home runs, and stolen base potential as Franco later in drafts. Jorge Polanco, Brendan Rodgers, and Amed Rosario are hitters going outside the top 50 in ADP who could outmatch or outdo Franco’s numbers.”
– Travis Argo (Fantasy Six Pack)

Starling Marte (OF – NYM) 
“I’ve had an on-again, off-again fantasy relationship with Marte for what feels like almost 20 years now (it’s really only been 11), and it’s been one heck of a rollercoaster ride. The now-grizzled veteran has had a great couple of seasons coming into this year, but I just don’t feel great about using a top 25-30 pick on an almost-34-year-old whose main fantasy value stems from his legs. Plus, he’s already dealing with an oblique injury in training camp that is going to put his Opening Day availability in jeopardy. Could Marte play up to his ADP this year? Yes. Would I prefer letting someone else take that risk? Also yes.”
– Nick Raducanu (Dr. Roto)

Jose Berrios (SP – TOR) 
“While not the bust in the sense that I expect the wheels to fall off, Berrios fits the bill as a bust because the opportunity you are missing out by drafting him in the top-25 starting pitchers. He is a totally fine starting pitcher, who is gonna give you an ERA in the mid-3s and a 1.20-ish WHIP. Which is fine … it’s totally fine, and 200 Ks can help you a lot, especially in deeper leagues. The problem is, you’re not winning your league with ‘fine’ pitching. When drafting an arm in the top 25, you need SP1 upside. Look elsewhere; let someone lock-in Berrios’ good-but-not-great numbers, you’ll be just fine.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS/OF – SD)
“Tatis Jr. is obviously the low-hanging fruit of this question, but I continue to see drafters investing way too high of capital on the already injured superstar. Entering the season, Tatis was already an injury concern due to existing shoulder subluxation issues. I am avoiding the situation seeing as how wrist injuries have been known to zap power. Between the shoulder and the wrist, it has the makings of an early shutdown, if and when he returns.”
– Nate Marcum (Fantasy In Frames)

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Thank you to all the experts for naming their consensus busts. You can view each expert’s picks below and be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our podcast, which is also available below.

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