There are ebbs and flows for players in drafts throughout the offseason. Below, I take an early look at Underdog Fantasy’s best ball leagues’ movement. I’ll be revisiting risers and fallers regularly in the offseason. But, for now, this is the first look before the start of free agency and the NFL Draft.
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Quarterbacks
Generally, the quarterbacks have moved up the draft board since February 6. As a result, you'll notice signal-callers such as Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Kirk Cousins listed on the table, despite remaining in the same slot among quarterbacks. However, Lamar Jackson, Trey Lance, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, Matt Ryan, Malik Willis, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston have been getting picked earlier and bypassed other quarterbacks. Most of the quarterbacks getting selected earlier and jumped ahead of their peers are young and add fantasy value as runners.
Kyler Murray stands out like a sore thumb in the group of quarterback fallers. He's the only quarterback among the seven on the table of fallers that adds significant value as a runner. Could gamers be reacting to his social media posts indicating he wants a new contract? Maybe. If gamers have been, that's unwise since Murray has almost no leverage.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers has fallen less than a full selection, and Matthew Stafford is getting popped earlier than he was on February 6. However, both veteran quarterbacks have dropped precisely one spot in the quarterback rankings. The biggest fallers have been Carson Wentz and Kenny Pickett. It hasn't been a secret the Colts are dissatisfied with Wentz's 2021 showing. Pickett's small hands have been a topic of discussion leading up to and through the NFL Draft combine. Further, the incoming quarterback class has been much maligned. Frankly, I'm disinterested in any of the incoming rookies in the best ball contests until after their landing spot has been determined.
Running Backs
Unlike the quarterbacks, running backs have generally been backsliding in drafts, even those who have moved up among their peers such as Aaron Jones, Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, Michael Carter, James Conner, Tony Pollard, and Rashaad Penny. Still, Devin Singletary has zoomed up 5.7 picks, and later backs such as Kenneth Gainwell, Darrell Henderson, Khalil Herbert, and Jerick McKinnon have risen boards.
Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, and Dalvin Cook have maintained their spots as RB4, RB5, and RB6. Nonetheless, they've each slipped a pick in average draft position (ADP) in the first round of drafts, a significant fall given it's the opening round. Further, many of the backs on the table have held serve at their spot among running backs but slipped relative to all players.
Alvin Kamara's fall is relatively steep since it's in the second round, potentially stemming from his incident in Las Vegas during the Pro Bowl. I'm a bit perplexed by Leonard Fournette dropping 21 picks. He's a free agent. So, the only explanation I've been able to formulate has been Tom Brady's retirement bleeding into Fournette's draft stock. As a result, returning to the Brady-led Buccaneers is no longer possible, removing one high-upside outcome from his range of scenarios.
Kenneth Walker's dip by 12.4 picks has been another change that has left me scratching my head. As you'll learn in a forthcoming article, I've been drafting him a ton. Still, after blazing a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Draft Combine, I expect Walker to land in the risers section in the next edition of this piece.
Cordarrelle Patterson has been another running back I've honed in on. I understand the case from his detractors. However, his passing-catch chops lend themselves to a floor of securing a passing-game back with gadget usage for his future employer. Yet, there's the upside for more in the right situation.
Wide Receivers
Ja'Marr Chase has jumped Ekeler, and Justin Jefferson has nudged above Harris in the first round. In addition, Deebo Samuel is on the cusp of a first-round ADP. Receivers, like quarterbacks, are generally climbing in drafts. Jaylen Waddle is the first highlighted receiver that moved up among his peers. Tee Higgins, D.J. Moore, Elijah Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DeVonta Smith are the others that rose in the top-25 wide receivers or jumped into the top 25.
The big climbers outside the top-25 receivers have been Gabriel Davis, Kadarius Toney, and Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Jameson Williams, and Curtis Samuel from the second page of risers. These half-dozen receivers have moved up more than 10 picks in ADP since February 6.
D.K. Metcalf could be in the risers table. Technically, he's climbed almost 2.5 picks in ADP. However, I opted to include him in this section since he fell from WR10 to WR11. Chris Godwin, Odell Beckham Jr., and Michael Gallup suffered at least a torn ACL. Unfortunately, OBJ's knee injury occurred in the Super Bowl, likely costing him a significant chunk of or all of the 2022 season. Meanwhile, in my opinion, gamers are wisely pumping the brakes on Godwin and Gallup.
Another common thread shared by many of the falling receivers is being a rookie. Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Chris Olave, and David Bell are all in this year's NFL Draft class. Burks is likely already priced near his ADP ceiling, even if he lands in a dreamy situation. Meanwhile, Wilson's, London's Olave's, and Bell's ADP have wiggle room to rise or fall, depending on the draft capital used on them and their landing spot.
Tight Ends
Top-flight tight ends such as Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Darren Waller are getting sniped earlier in drafts since February 6. Moreover, Waller has leapfrogged a forthcoming faller at the position. Dallas Goedert has been the other tight end in the top-80 picks to climb in ADP. Rookie Tre McBride has been the biggest riser, though.
George Kittle has been the only elite tight end that has slipped in ADP, sliding behind Waller and dropping 1.8 spots in ADP. Noah Fant has been the only other top-12 tight end to drop, falling directly behind Mike Gesicki after previously sharing the same ADP.
Finally, Rob Gronkowski is coming off an excellent season. However, with Brady retiring, gamers appear to be expecting Gronk to join him as a spectator. I don't share that same belief. He's voiced an interest in playing with Joe Burrow, and the Bills are reportedly interested in the tight end who grew up near Buffalo, New York. As a result, he's my favorite late-round target at any position.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
