Knowing your fantasy baseball host site’s ADP can help you find overvalued and undervalued players in the pool. Today we will compare Yahoo’s ADP to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranks (ECR) and FantasyPros ADP. The FantasyPros ECR is comprised of rankings from experts across the industry. The FantasyPros ADP combines six sources from the most popular fantasy baseball platforms to find a consensus. In doing this, you can find outliers on different platforms. Today, we look at Yahoo’s ADP to find some undervalued players.
We will define undervalued players in a couple of ways. We will first look at players who have a top-100 consensus ADP and are going ten spots below that on Yahoo. After, we will look at the Expert Consensus Rankings and find players who are being drafted 15 places lower than their respective ECR. Using this process can help maximize the value on your teams.
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Undervalued Players on Yahoo
Yahoo ADP vs. Consensus ADP
| Player | Team | Position | Yahoo ADP | Consensus ADP |
Yahoo vs. Consensus
|
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | SP | 54 | 39.2 | 14.8 |
| Robbie Ray | SEA | SP | 51 | 40.8 | 10.2 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | C | 71 | 58 | 13 |
| Tyler O’Neill | STL | OF | 77 | 61.4 | 15.6 |
| Will Smith | LAD | C | 81 | 61.4 | 19.6 |
| Logan Webb | SF | SP | 100 | 62.4 | 37.6 |
| Emmanuel Clase | CLE | RP | 96 | 75.4 | 20.6 |
| Charlie Morton | ATL | SP | 86 | 75.4 | 10.6 |
| Joe Musgrove | SD | SP | 91 | 77.2 | 13.8 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | 2B,CF | 89 | 77.2 | 11.8 |
| Ryan Pressly | HOU | RP | 95 | 79 | 16 |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | 2B,SS | 97 | 80.2 | 16.8 |
| Edwin Diaz | NYM | RP | 105 | 80.4 | 24.6 |
| Dylan Cease | CWS | SP | 110 | 82.2 | 27.8 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | LF,CF | 101 | 88.6 | 12.4 |
| Yasmani Grandal | CWS | C,1B | 123 | 98.4 | 24.6 |
Looking at the difference between Yahoo and FantasyPros Consensus ADP, you will find a lot of pitchers and catchers. This is partly because catchers are pushed up on NFBC. After all, their leagues are two-catchers formats. Starting pitchers also get pushed up in some NFBC leagues, but that does not mean some of these starting pitchers are not excellent values on Yahoo. Let’s talk about them.
Logan Webb (SP – SF)
Logan Webb has the most significant differential of any player in the top-1oo consensus ADP and Yahoo’s ADP. Going at an average pick of 100 on Yahoo is a steal for the 25-year-old who broke out last season. In 148 innings, Webb posted a 3.03 ERA, which I guess some find fluky since his ADP sits at 100 on Yahoo. The crazy thing is, all ERA estimators suggest he pitched even better than a 3.03 ERA. He had a 2.72 FIP and a 2.79 xFIP last season.
Webb’s season was not fluky by any means. He changed his arsenal completely, throwing his sinker and slider significantly more. He also cut the usage of his four-seam fastball significantly. Webb had a groundball rate over 60 percent while also having a 12.4 percent swinging-strike rate. That is an elite combo.
Webb likely will not pitch to a 3.03 ERA again, but getting a solid starter who can provide high-end ratios with solid strikeout numbers at pick 100 is a steal.
Dylan Cease (SP – CWS)
With how popular Dylan Cease has been this offseason, it is surprising to see him going at pick 110 on Yahoo. The gap between the consensus ADP and Yahoo is 27.8 spots. Last season, Cease had his ups and downs but still pitched a 3.91 ERA with 226 strikeouts in 165.2 innings. All ERA indicators suggest he pitched at a higher level. His FIP was an impressive 3.41, while his xERA of 3.68 and his 3.57 SIERA were also highly impressive.
Cease made improvements to his arsenal, which saw him have a 40 percent or better whiff rate on three of his pitches. His slider was elite and had a 50.1 percent whiff rate. When Cease’s fastball is on and grooving up in the zone, watch out, he can be an ace caliber pitcher. Drafting him at pick 110 on Yahoo feels unfair.
Joe Musgrove (SP – SD)
Every year, we waited patiently for a Joe Musgrove breakout to come. Finally, 2021 was the season where Musgrove put it all together. He pitched 181.1 innings with a 3.18 ERA and 203 strikeouts. Musgrove changed his arsenal where he used his four-seam less than ever. He dropped the usage from 37.6 percent in 2019 to 26.9 percent in 2020, down to 19.7 percent in 2021. Musgrove’s four-seam is his worst pitch, so it is good to see him using it less.
Musgrove began using his slider and curveball most often in the process. He posted a 36.6 percent whiff rate on his slider and a 35.9 percent whiff rate on his curve. Musgrove feels like a lock for a high number of innings and should continue his success if he keeps his arsenal usage similar to 2021. Drafting him after pick 90 is a steal.
Yahoo ADP Vs. ECR
| Player | Team | Positions | Yahoo | ECR | Yahoo vs. ECR |
| Cedric Mullins II | BAL | CF | 41 | 31 | 10 |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | SP | 54 | 42 | 12 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | 1B | 53 | 43 | 10 |
| Freddy Peralta | MIL | SP | 64 | 53 | 11 |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | CF | 63 | 51 | 12 |
| George Springer | TOR | CF,DH | 60 | 46 | 14 |
| Tyler O’Neill | STL | LF | 77 | 54 | 23 |
| Logan Webb | SF | SP | 100 | 74 | 26 |
| Brandon Lowe | TB | 2B,LF,RF | 75 | 65 | 10 |
| Kris Bryant | COL | 1B,3B,LF,CF,RF | 78 | 68 | 10 |
| Joe Musgrove | SD | SP | 91 | 75 | 16 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | 2B,CF | 89 | 67 | 22 |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | 2B,SS | 97 | 70 | 27 |
| Edwin Diaz | NYM | RP | 105 | 86 | 19 |
| Frankie Montas | OAK | SP | 88 | 76 | 12 |
| Dylan Cease | CWS | SP | 110 | 92 | 18 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | LF,CF | 101 | 77 | 24 |
| Trevor Rogers | MIA | SP | 103 | 87 | 16 |
Several of the same pitchers on the undervalued for ADP also pop up when comparing Yahoo ADP against ECR. There are some notable hitters who the experts like more than Yahoo ADP.
Kris Bryant (3B, OF – COL)
Kris Bryant’s ADP will catch up to his ECR with time. The move to Colorado is a massive boost for his value and led many experts to move him up their rankings significantly. His ADP is creeping up and will likely be close to top-60.
Jorge Polanco (2B – MIN)
Jorge Polanco is coming off a career season and is still not getting the love he deserves on Yahoo. Last year he hit 33 home runs and stole 11 bases while posting a .269 batting average. Polanco’s power outburst may surprise some, but the switch hitter made gains in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and other power metrics. His 10.1 percent barrel rate was the highest of his career by four percentage points. Polanco’s average exit velocity was also up three mph from 2020. The gains are legit, and you can draft Jorge Polanco at a discount on Yahoo.
Brandon Lowe (2B – TB)
It baffles me that Brandon Lowe had the kind of season he did but is still being drafted at a similar spot as he was in 2021. Lowe is coming off a season where he hit 39 home runs and stole seven bases. His .247 batting average was not overly impressive, but considering he hit .291 in the second half, Lowe made significant strides. There is no denying his power, even hitting in Tropicana Field. Lowe was betting on the road with a .259 batting average versus .234 at home. But the home runs numbers are pretty even (19 at home, 20 on the road). Brandon Lowe is an excellent value in drafts if you wait on second base.
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Chris Clegg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @RotoClegg.