Continuing with our overvalued and undervalued series, today, we’ll focus on those undervalued in ESPN leagues.
Drafting players later than their projected cost is key to a solid draft. Anytime you select a player, and the rest of your league cries out, “how is he still left,” you’ve done a good thing. Finding players later than their ADP not only gives you a leg up on the competition but sets a solid foundation for your roster. Fantasy sports are all about value, and when you can obtain players for less than their market worth, you’re likely to win.
Judging by FantasyPros consensus ADP, ESPN has a plethora of undervalued players. I had to check and recheck to ensure the ESPN ADP I was observing was for Roto and included steals. It was that shocking to see where many players were falling. There is some fantastic value to be had, and I’m not sure why managers prioritize starting pitching so much higher than hitters there. The only rational explanation is their overall rankings reflect similarly and we all know individual site rankings strongly influence managers’ decisions.
That said, take a look at these five players going much later in ESPN drafts than they should be.
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ESPN ADP: 12
Consensus ADP: 2
FantasyPros ECR: 1
Call the cops! Trea Turner in round two is highway robbery. Going as early as the first overall selection in many roto leagues, his ranking after Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer is laughable.
Turner is the prototypical five-category stud, and you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone as valuable. Batting atop the Dodgers lineup, he offers speed, power, batting average and a 200 RBI plus runs threshold. He could end up the top Roto player of the season and should not last beyond the first few picks.
ESPN ADP: 25
Consensus ADP: 6
FantasyPros ECR: 6
If only all my high-stakes leagues could take place on ESPN’s site, I’d be rich! Bo Bichette is another player deserving of a first-round selection, yet somehow he is falling to the third. Players like Aaron Nola and Manny Machado should never be going ahead of him.
Bichette will excel in all five categories making him worthy of the fifth or sixth overall pick, but no later than the ninth. The fact that he is averaging a 25th overall selection should be enough for you to want to convince your buddies to play on ESPN. Take advantage of others’ mistakes and cash in at the end of the year.
ESPN ADP: 27
Consensus ADP: 9
FantasyPros ECR: 9
Ronald Acuna Jr. at 27th overall is just silly. Yes, he’s still not been given the official green light as he concludes his recovery from his torn ACL, and yes, he likely won’t run as much, but are you kidding me? Ronald Acuna in the third round?
He already looked fantastic taking hacks in the cage over three months ago and should be back on the field before long. Even if he misses two weeks of the season, Acuna Jr. can be the most productive offensive player.
The Braves lineup with or without Freddy Freeman is stacked, and expect Acuna Jr. to resume his leadoff role once he returns. A .280 season with 110 runs, 40 homers, 95 RBI, and 18 steals is a strong possibility. Once the news breaks that Acuna has been given a clean bill of health, look for his average draft position to shoot up into the top five or six selections overall.
ESPN ADP: 61
Consensus ADP: 18
FantasyPros ECR: 19
In most expert mock drafts, the young Cuban superstar is going in the early-to-mid-second round. Yet, for some reason, he has fallen to 61st on ESPN, near the likes of DJ LeMahieu and Charlie Morton. Not to single out those guys, but come on!
Robert has the upside to attain top-five status by year-end. While he lacks the track record and is a bit of an injury risk, a 35/30 season is possible. Robert won’t hit .338 again, but a .315 batting average is not out of the question. Plus, with the lineup around him, he could easily reach 210 RBIs plus runs scored.
The incredible numbers Robert registered last year after returning from injury should be more than enough evidence of what the young slugger can do. He’s a Statcast darling as well. Target Robert in the late second or early third round and hope he lasts that long.
ESPN ADP: 102
Consensus ADP: 41
FantasyPros ECR: 37
I was choosing between Byron Buxton and Trevor Story here. I love Buxton’s ceiling as few can match his abilities, but I went with the shortstop, seeing as Story had a much more significant gap between his consensus ADP and ESPN’s.
Once again, ESPN doesn’t seem to value speed at all. Story has the skills to reach 30 steals along with 30 homers. He probably won’t reach those numbers leaving Coors, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he did. His batting average may only hover around league average but make no mistake, Mr. Story can still produce.
Still only 29 years old, the ex-Rockies shortstop reached the 89th percentile in sprint speed last year while still ranking in the top 25 percent of max exit velo and average exit velo. He is also likely to be signed by a contender with a solid surrounding cast, helping boost his RBI and run totals.
His road/home splits are something to be aware of, but dropping outside the top 100 is absurd. His ADP of 41 is a little high for me, but you can wait much longer with his low ranking on ESPN. I’d say a seventh-round selection in ESPN leagues is a safe bet, where he’ll still offer plenty of value.
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Check out other overvalued and undervalued articles here:
• Analyzing CBS’s ADP for Overvalued Players to Avoid
• Analyzing CBS’s ADP for Undervalued Players to Target
Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.
